I have seen the future - and it is Jezza's - aaaaaaaaah!

I don't usually do forecasting for the simple reason that I am almost always wrong and end up looking an even bigger prat than I already am!  So big a prat, in fact, that I am going to ignore the warnings and try again.

If the 'Remainers' win the referendum then political life will stumble on more or less as usual although Die Kaiserin and her puppets in Brussels will finally unveil some exceedingly unpleasant surprises which they have held back whilst we irritating Brits insist on indulging in some democracy!  Dave 'n' George, despite their swaggering public school arrogance, will resist any immediate revenge but in the long term Michael Gove might be advised to seek pastures new, in academia, perhaps, because his political future will be zilch!

However, if the 'Brexiteers' win then I can see the Tory party splitting.  They are facing a two-way divide.  The majority of their MPs are pro-Europe but the 'Brexiteer' MPs have just announced an immediate legislative programme if they win in order to forestall any efforts by the Eurocrats to prevaricate and it will only take a few Europhile Tory MPs to rebel and make that impossible.  In any case, can you see Dave 'n' George meekly acquiescing in the passing of Bills to cut our ties with Europe?

The Tory party as a whole is equally split.  The majority of ordinary members are 'Brexiteers' and their detestation of Cameron and his sopping wet semi-socialism is intense and only equalled by Cameron's haughty cohorts one of whom once referred to ordinary Tories who worried about Europe as "swivel-eyed loons".  So, for the Tories a win at the referendum could be a big lose!

All that leaves the door wide open for - wait for it! - 'Jezza' and the 'Komrades' - and now we're talking real-life "swivel-eyed loons'!  The Labour party might be split over Europe but the split lies between their ordinary members and the majority of their MPs.  The former have been up the sharp end of mass immigration and they do not like it, but their MPs, being, of course, so much more sophisticated and, er, 'metropolitan' can see no harm in it.  So Jezza's parliamentary party is fairly united and is standing by ready to take over when the Tories implode.  (Sorry, did I just ruin your breakfast?)

All of that might be construed as an argument to vote for 'Remain' which, if successful, might, just, keep the Tories in and Labour out.  But that is to confuse day-to-day politics with our long-term future.  Come what may, it is absolutely essential that the rule of parliament is restored.  We have had good governments and bad governments but the absolutely essential thing is that we, The People - (dread words!) - have the power to kick the rascals out.  There is absolutely no way that you can rid yourself of Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Mario Draghi and Martin Schulz, the ruling apparat of Europe.  They, not parliament, 'rule Britannia'!

 

VOTE LEAVE

 

Comments

[Whyaxye]

Indeed. The long-term issues of nationaL sovereignty and the protection of borders are far more important than whichever bunch of clowns form a temporary government. If we are smart and determined enough throw off the European yoke, then we won't put up with the current Labour leadership.

My guess is that a Brexit victory would provide the political class with such a massive kick up the backside that all bets would be off.

[Lord T]

Almost exactly what I said when they were all cheering when Jezza was voted in. Be careful what you wish for.

I see a purge coming and a split no matter what way the vote goes.

[Whitewall]

"So big a prat, in fact, that I am going to ignore the warnings and try again". David, it is your eloquent persistence that keeps me glued to this blog!

[Cuffleyburgers]

Duffers - I think the tory party will be seriously fissile whichever way the vote goes. Too much bile has been spilt. And as you say the grass roots loathe the Cameron/Osborne set, and won't stand for them any longer.

If the vote is to remain that doesn't matter because policy will continue to be made in Brussels (and even more so ) and merely implemented here bythe whitehall gauleiters.

If the tory party does break up likely so will labour. Not necessarily a good thing as their social democrat rump would then unite with Dave's wet tories and the bedraggled remains o the illib/notDems to form a centre left party who will then try to commit some unspeakable subterfuge to keep us in.

Then the shit really will hit the fan - hopefully at that point there would be enough interest in a general anti-EU pro market party; and then again maybe not.

We'll see.

THe only sure thing is that a vote to remain will be a disaster.

[AussieD]

Leave.

The UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand would be a powerful trading consortium. Certainly one to give the Euroweenies a powerful headache.

Natural resources and access to hungry markets to form a bloc involving countries with Westminster model democracies, a common language and Head of State. What's not to like?

[Laban]

If Remain win I imagine it'll be spun in the Guardian as "a vote for a progressive future" and the fire will go back under the frog in the pot. Merkel's millions, Turkish accession, increased economic and other pressure on Russia - and also on those Eastern European nations who don't fancy looking like Karachi or Cairo.

Remain must be worried though - they're targeting "women of a certain age" if the leaflet addressed to Mrs Tall yesterday is any guide. Nothing for me or the kids.

"Don't Let Farage Speak For You" is the message complete with a picture of Nige pulling his best upper class twit face. Funny, BoJo is the official face of Leave, wonder why they didn't use him?

[Pat]

Don't forget the Labour party is split too, and as far as I can see surviving on habit.The MPs are out of kilter with the members and both are getting further and further from their voters. If UKIP can do a quarter as well in the English Labour heartlands as the SNP did in the Scottish ones, then the threat of a Labour government will be removed. At that point the Conservatives will split.
Don't forget there are as many people voting Conservative to keep Labour out as there are to get Conservatives in. If, as I suspect, those who voted Labour to keep the Conservatives out stop doing so then we start to see a major re-alighnment in British politics: as the former will have no further reason to vote Conservative.
@ Laban They imagine Farage to be as unpopular with the ordinary voter as he is with them-they may be mistaken.

[David Duff]

Thanks, Gentlemen, some good and salient points. I must admit that that with one exception most of the arguments have been made and then repeated, perhaps too often. However one item has not been made much of and that is the news that the EU hierarchy has plans afoot to issue individual tax Identity numbers to every single citizen in the EU. How long will it be before they raise the idea of an EU tax? 'Stick around, kid, you ain't seen nuttin' yet'!

[Lawrence Duff]

(1) Did I read that correctly, or did someone slip some acid into my lunch wraps?

So the penny's finally dropped and you're admitting that Blighty will return to the 1970's!!!

(2) "detestation of Cameron and his sopping wet semi-socialism"

Better semi-socialism from Dave and George than full-on socialism from Jezza and the Brexiteers. The Brexiteers have already spent the gross amount of EU contributions ten times over (being country bumpkins they're unable to perform a simple netting off calculation, as we know), and their instincts will be to spend even more! No-one else will shrink the state at the same rate as Dave and George.

You'll wait 1,000 years for another Thatcher. The single market rules are the only vestige of her and anti-socialism in Europe today.

Socialist economics are the same whether you're the class, race, nativist, xenophobic or other brand of socialist, or some combination thereof. And socialist economics is all you'll get for 1,000 years, the economy dragging like a Neanderthals knuckles along the bumpy ground of the IMF and various other creditors keeping you on financial life support.

Just so you can say "We Brits are in control". So that's alright then. Why not try thinking from the individual rather than a collective class, race, native, or foreigner?

SoD

[David Duff]

Well, SoD, I will test your experiment. Try saying these two mutually contradictory statements over and over and see which one tastes the best:

"We Brits are in control"

"Those Bulgarian, Rumanian, Italian, Hungarian, etc, etc, are in control, er, just so long as they do what Berlin tells them"

Do let me know your decision in due course but let us hope we don't find out the hard way!

[Pat]

Re the tax numbers currently in preparation. The EU, if it is to have any chance of saving the Euro, must have a means of taxing the richer parts of the Eurozone and subsidising the poorer- its how every currency area works. Whether that will be enough I doubt, the disparity between the northern and southern economies is great, but Its the only chance the Euro has- It'll only take a minor crisis now to put Italy or France or Spain into the Greek position, and since there isn't enough money to bail any of them out they will have to leave the Euro and devalue- well unless the EU sends in an army to stop them.
The tax will inevitably fall heaviest on the richest states mainly Germany and secondly us. Will the Germans accept this, and if not will they elect AFD and leave.
There is also the problem of immigration- will the newly arrived migrants be allocated round EU states and if so how will they be kept in their allocated places? That would require either rigorous border patrols or concentration camps.
The French sound pretty upset at the moment, and might well elect Le Pen next year- the French might leave.
Holland has elections next year- Wilders has a decent chance.
In short the EU is likely to break up in a decade whatever we decide.
I can even envision a scenario where Britain is the last remaining member.

[David Duff]

Pat, as a lover of rich irony, "I can even envision a scenario where Britain is the last remaining member", is simply too, too, delicious!

[backofanenvelope]

So we'll wait a thousand years for another Thatcher and we'll get socialism for a thousand years. Sounds a bit like forecasts by that slimy little git Osborne.