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Thursday, 30 June 2016

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There you go, see, no sooner was your digital ink dry than one of 'em stabbed you in the back - priceless! : -

"Put not thy trust in princes".

SoD

Bojo more circus clown than PM material me thinks. Gove yes, Leadsom yes and after what May said this morning starting to be a maybe. Quite a good field of runners. Best for a long time except Bojo. Too wet just continuity Cameron. Also only a leaver to further his ambitions not his beliefs.

Johnson is certainly an improvement over Cameron, but I have reservations regarding the issue of "style rather than substance". He makes some clever career moves, but he has not been conspicuously successful in any of them. A nondescript MP, a crude hack in journalism, and nothing special as London Mayor. He is desperate to show off his patrician learning (which in itself is a bit suspect!) but he is in the Stephen Fry category: professorial mannerisms and clever-sounding references rather than real depth of intellect.

Most importantly, he shares with May the drawback that he is not fundamentally Eurosceptical. May was quietly on Cameron's side (the smartest career bet, polls considered!) and Johnson switched when he scented blood. More worryingly, he has been making conciliatory noises about the free movement/free trade deal, even since the result.

I agree about Leadsome. (Wish I knew how to pronounce her name: Leedsome? Ledsome?) Her and Gove would make a lovely team.

Whatever the result, we are in for interesting times, all bathed in the glorious glow from last week which has barely faded!

"He (Gove) behaved honourably and impeccably during the referendum hoo-ha"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/the-stunning-ruthlessness-of-michael-gove-destroyed-david-camero/

Well he's made up for it now alright!

From a strictly Machiavellian point of view, Blighty might have found its man (or woman) for the negotiations with the EU.

Shakespeare Sch-w-akespeare, this is even better than Game of Thrones - I haven't even found the time to watch the last Gotty episode yet!

SoD

My advice to Theresa May and the others: If Gove and his Missus invite you to a wedding, DECLINE!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnxvUuSzbMI

SoD

What happens next is that Boris has ruled himself out.

Thank goodness.

However, his comments in doing so were interesting: "...having consulted colleagues and considering the situation in Parliament, I have decided..."

What does he mean by "the situation in Parliament"? Is he hinting, perhaps, that no Parliament will agree to invoke Article 50?

I do rather wonder if that's the game plan now. There certainly doesn't seem to be any other.

Thanks for the link SoD - I'd never seen either wedding before - brilliant.

Stephen Fry category? Good heavens! Are there two of them in the public eye over there? I am enjoying the comments on the various candidates. I'm trying to pick out who might be the biggest double XXer regarding Brexit.

Andrew, and May is saying no election until 2020, so there'll be no chance to vote in pro article 50 activation MP's, and with 70% of MP's pro-Remain it looks like Blighty'll be in the EU a while longer.

SoD

Andrew, I sincerely hope you are wrong regarding Parliament. As for Boris, most commentators (including Guto Harri, his ex-BBC communications supremo) put his withdrawal down to Gove entering the lists. Splitting the vote would not help him, as he has become an irritant to many in Parliament and the Conservative Party at large.

Or, maybe someone has reminded him of the existence somewhere of a video that would be better off unseen by the general public. It might involve something yellow and white moving rhythmically against something it is not married to. Sorry to spoil any lunches.

For once I agree with you Lawrence. By the way, I am completely out of predictions. God only knows what is going to happen next... with both the Tories AND Labour.

Whyaxye - I'd have thought BoJo doesn't worry too much about his infidelities and the ladies don't seem to.

May is saying - "Britain voted out and that's it", so in spite of being a Remainder it looks as if she's now the national unity candidate. Maybe BoJo's not the only one who can trim their sails tothe prevailing wind.

Corbyn has vanished from R4 news and it's all "et tu, Gove"!

It's ferrets-in-a-sack time for both the major parties, while Nicola Sturgeon (36% of SNP voters were Brexit as against 37% of Labour voters) sits serenely above the fray and Tim Farron shouts "Don't forget about me!".

I am reminded of a banter that went round Eastern Europe after that plane crashed in Russia carrying 150 politicians a few years back, killing the lot. Basically, it went like this "If it had been a plane load of engineers, or train drivers, or doctors, or nurses, then we'd have a problem. But it was a plane load of pols. So we haven't missed a beat, nothing important has ceased to work, it's not a problem, life will go on as if nothing has happened.". And so it did.

I sniggered at the dark and dirty truth of it, and warmed to the deeply Libertarian and anti-establishment sentiment of it.

And today as Blighty drifts rudderless, skipperless, with no sight of land, the FTSE 100 is back to normal, the others on the way up, it really doesn't matter.

In fact, enjoy it while you can. The time to worry is when the next lot of post-plane crash pols get their act together, line up their ducks, and start giving us a hard time again.

SoD

Sturgeon is a great democrat. She speaks for the Scottish referendum losers and the majority Scottish who voted to remain in the EU referendum. The 38% Scots who voted to leave the EU have no voice as Labour, SNP, Liberals and Greens campaigned to remain. If the aforementioned had not stamped on the dissenters then surely the brexit in Scotland would have polled higher.

SoD

Meanwhile, in the glorious paradise that the UK has inexplicably voted to leave...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/06/29/2167283/greeces-depression-is-forcing-dis-saving-on-an-epic-scale/

"The collapse of the Greek economy is almost without precedent. Real household consumption has dropped by 27 per cent since the peak. During the global financial crisis, this figure “only” fell by 6 per cent before rebounding. The combination of mass joblessness, wage cuts, and higher taxes means disposable household incomes have fallen even further. To make up the difference, Greeks have been eating into their savings. In 2006-2009, the personal savings rate averaged about 6 per cent. In 2015, the rate was -6 per cent.

The total amount of dis-saving since mid-2011 implies Greek households have eaten into €19bn worth of savings even as their living standards have cratered."

Dont' worry, Laban, for every -1% of whatever economic measure you choose to consider in Greece, there's a +1% and a little bit more in the Fatherland. The net effect (even the country bumpkins should be ok with that by now) being: Plus a little bit more.

That's how a common currency works: The productive centre denudes the unproductive periphery of capital and labour. Best empire building tool around - beats Panzer divisions any time.

And now that the Outters have done a Dunkirk for us, we've left the mainland continent to consolidate into a single state - the single worst geo-political outome for Blighty, one that has been our singular foreign policy to avoid for 2000 years.

If we had stayed in the EU, rousing the rabble, obstructing, causing trouble, as Wellington did in the Peninsular, the geo-political catastrophe could have been avoided. It could have been a D-Day instead, with Blighty able to reshape Europe more to our requirements out of the rubble of our own making.

But there is a glimmer of hope. We are still actually in the EU, and it doesn't appear we will be leaving anytime soon. Irresistable force has met immovable object and in the immediate aftermath who knows where the parts will fly.

SoD

"If we had stayed in the EU, rousing the rabble, obstructing, causing trouble"

I really don't get this SoD, in the last few years, it has seemed as though Britain has simply become an embarrassing presence in a bunch of other leaders who don't see us as anything but a potential source of income. What rabble have we roused, except for those of us who have seen our income decline, our potential to raise money restricted, every 'crumb of comfort' (the living Wage) turn into a Pandora's box, an income divide of people who have children to those of us who can't afford them and the constant joke of "We have a health issue breaking the NHS so we're going to keep providing the advice which will ensure people get sicker and then blame them for doing so". Plus the old, "You will never be old enough to retire, you will never have enough money to retire on but you need to start your pension age 5 so that everyone after you has one".

Is that you want the EU to collapse, whereupon we could have reshaped something from that? I will admit, it could be that the political leaders may have then stepped forward and been all "Well, it's not our fault, so we'll show people how to recover from it". However, I am firmly convinced that the headless chickens would have run out at the first sign of trouble, and left us to it.

SoD - I think leaving the EU is, alas, the only language the Commission understand. Cameron warned them of the possible consequences of their "j'y suis, j'y reste" stance on free movement, and they didn't take him seriously.

After the May 2014 council elections showed a move of Labour voters to UKIP, former FT Japan editor and critic of Western "globalisation" Eamonn Fingleton wrote "Suddenly The EU’s Break-Up Has Moved From A Long Shot To A Probability". He was right. Interesting writer btw.

http://www.unz.com/efingleton/brexit-why-is-everyone-so-surprised

btw, SoD, I wouldn't use Wellington in the Peninsula as an argument.

The Spanish are rightly still miffed about Badajoz, where we raped and slaughtered the civilian citizens of our nominal allies. I hope you're not suggesting a similar approach to the EU!

http://ukcommentators.blogspot.com/2007/10/badajoz.html

"If we had stayed in the EU, rousing the rabble, obstructing, causing trouble"

Good idea. If only we had some politicians with the will and ability to carry out your plan, and the desire to do so. Can't think of any at the moment - other than Mr Farage.

SoD, you seem to have joined the "we have to be in it to change it" crowd.

We've been in it for 40 years or so, and we've not managed to divert it one iota from its planned path.

What evidence is there that anything would change if we stayed in and kept trying?

In the past 40 years I give you Maggie T's legacy: The single market.

The Euros would never have done that without Blighty's pressure for a level playing field, the "Anglo-Saxon model".

No, it wasn't perfect, because it was still work-in-progress. The freedom of movement of goods had finishing touches needing done, the services was the next big step, the capital wasn't bad - the city wasn't complaining anyway, and the freedom of movement was the greatest achievement.

And for the future: It is clear that movements for change and reform - the rebels and rabble - are plentiful across the EU. They needed a marshal. Blighty could have taken that time-honoured role and done a latter day "Wellington in the Peninsular" - shall we call it "The British Ulcer"?

The Euro was the EU's march to Moscow, and the slow retreat is underway. It's a shame Blighty will have no credit or even presence at the post-EU treaty negotiations, and our absence from the EU will delay the march to this point longer. Instead of clinging on to the mainland as rabble rousers and troublemakers, we did a Dunkirk. So now we'll have to do a D-Day when the time comes to get back in. That's one outcome.

Or else, the EU will complete it's project and Blighty'll be left with a United States of Europe on the continent - the greatest geo-political disaster that could befall Blighty. without the "British Ulcer" we just made the EU's chances of achieving this outcome a lot easier.

There is just one slim, dreamlike possibility as the light fades.

That is, that we have the two together in succession: A Dunkirk followed by a D-Day. We get in the boats in Dunkirk, sail down the coast a bit, and land again in Normandy.

By that now extremely stretched but still pertinent metaphor, I mean: We stay in the EU holding the article 50 button (which the EU has no legal ability to press) unpressed, and squeeze their nuts so hard their pips squeak; with every policy we want in our relationship with the EU we whip up support from the other EU members who want it also; and in general we veto, blockade, and harass every port (policy) proposed by the EU from Dunkirk to Normandy.

In this twilight zone we might find our "leverage", as the pols like to say.

And the Euros are shitting themselves over this possibility, as their shrill cries for immediate article 50 activation testify; and Gove and May are saying "no article 50 this year" - they know what's coming!

Game on for Blighty!

SoD

SoD - We can, to continue the dodgy historical analogy, be the offshore beacon of freedom, as Europe cowers under the threat of invasion by Merkel's Millions and Erdogan's Janissaries, while the South goes bust.

We need to be doing the political equivalent of arms drops to the Maquis and the Greek, Spanish and Italian insurgents.

Your Dad will be asking for his blog back soon!

"We need to be doing the political equivalent of arms drops to the Maquis and the Greek, Spanish and Italian insurgents."

Spot on.

Eh boys, that's the fighting talk we need!

Yer may be country bumpkin home boys, but ya can't resist a pop at old Boney!

Steady the Buffs, rally, breather, Jan 1st, and let's have at 'em again!

SoD

Well bugger me, Gove's potty for Gotty! : -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/01/has-michael-goves-treachery-turned-brexit-mps-against-him/

"One journalist tried to liven up the occasion by asking Mr Gove, a keen fan of the plots-and-power TV series Game of Thrones, which of its characters he most likened himself to. He dodged the question by saying he did not want to spoil anything for anyone who was not up to date with the latest series, but his Conservative colleague Ben Wallace MP was quick to offer his own view.

“He is actually Theon Greyjoy, or will be by the time I am finished with him,” he said (Greyjoy’s genitals are cut off and sent to his family by an enemy holding him hostage). Ouch."

I wonder if he saw the final episode of this season last weekend (just watched it - awesome) and got a bit over-excited at all the throat slitting?!

Well, Gove me old Surrey Heath matey, to quote Tyrion Lannister "You're in the great game now. Are you afraid?"

SoD

I believe it was just his p**nis which was sent to his family, hence the reference to his "favourite toy" and the visual joke of Reese Bolton consuming a phallic object when Theon wakes up after his op.

The whereabouts of Theon's other parts remains a mystery, and will no doubt be cleared up in Season 11's climax, "The Battle of the Balls".

You know, just for historical accuracy :-)

I have never watched 'GoT' and the more I learn of it here the less likely am I ever to do so!

I have never watched it either. I am working myself into a quandry over watching "Wolf Hall". Looks interesting.

'Wolf Hall' bored me rigid so I only watched half an episode.

David, thanks for the warning.

What a shame, I loved the verbal fencing of "Wolf Hall", but each to their own. David, I don't think "GoT" would be your cup of tea, although Peter Dinklage might make into your estimation as a good actor. "GoT" is a above average Sword 'N' Sorcery soap opera, an unabashed tits and bums romp with more depth than Arnie's escapades in "Conan the Barbarian". I love it, but I can admit that it is not there to make you question the meaning of life....

Mayfly...verbal fencing you say? I do enjoy that especially in period films. A fav of mine for verbal fencing is "The Lion in Winter".

I must see that! I keep being told it's a classic.

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