The really dark matter problem

It is, I suppose, a demonstration of the success of Trump's vaulting ambition over his common-sense that he has just talked, or bellowed, his way into the worst job in the world.  The result of his election, rather like that of the Brexit referendum, stemmed from a sort of inchoate unease, amounting almost to fear, on the part of huge swathes of our electorates.  There is a sense, and it is growing, amongst 'the Deplorables' (of which I proudly claim my place) that all is not well with the world and that the looming, threatening problem is unstoppable and unsolvable.

Having lived through forty years of socialism, both the Labour party and Conservative party versions, I fell upon Maggie Thatcher and her Austrian economics with fervour.  Economic libertarianism was the motto on my banner.  But, as always with schemes promising nirvana, there were unforeseen outcomes.  Lifting the State off the backs of commerce has produced huge benefits but, as the old saying has it, 'there's no such thing as a free lunch'!

Thatcher and Reagan did indeed set commerce free and reduced the power of the State but in doing so they unleashed a monster that has now come to threaten the State, and even more important, to actually threaten their citizens.  Money, like water, takes the easiest route downhill and for the entrepreneurs who make money, their 'downhill' are the places with the cheapest taxes, cheapest labour and the minimal regulation.  Of course, whilst that has hit the traditional working classes in the West, it has benefitted those in the East.

Even so, now a new age dawns, one not foreseen by politicians or businessmen, and one that contains the darkest of dark problems.  I have tried to think of an all-encompassing word that would summarise this dark problem but all I can come up with is 'computerisation'.  By that, I do not just mean lap-tops and smart phones and the esoteric languages that drive them, I mean ALL the global algorithmic systems that control almost everything in our lives including the robots who will increasingly apply them.

Where, in this 'brave new world', will Man have a place?  We cannot be consumers because shortly we will have no wages with which to consume!  A solution, of sorts, will arise eventually, it always does, but what exactly it will be I do not know.  Happily, I will not be around to find out because I suspect, to repeat my favourite phrase, "there will be blood"!

 

 

Comments

[Whitewall]

If Man has no place in the new world, then Man will do what he has always done...go to war against those who are not of his culture and traditions. Those who have assimilated well with those of the host population will no longer tolerate those who will not or can not. If Britain begins to see neighborhoods or whole communities where no British, never mind English, live in the majority, then the stage is being slowly set. Same for every other host Western country.

Why is the entire under developed world migrating to the white developed Christian world? With little work to do, Man will want to know.

[Richard]

No less a person than Antony Beevor has been making comment on much the same area as you David. His article in today's Telegraph is required reading.

Richard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/11/this-is-no-rerun-of-the-thirties--but-the-world-is-changing-at-t/

[Whitewall]

Richard, interesting looking article but the meat of it is behind the wall.

[Bob]

Good post, David. I'll repeat that we're in a situation resembling the Industrial Revolution. However, it's further complicated by the shrinking world because in some measure all politics is identity politics. The old left and right paradigms no longer apply. There is always blood. Let's hope it's kept to a minimum.

[Whitewall]

"The old left and right paradigms no longer apply." That's for sure!

[Antisthenes]

The Austrian school of economics would not think much of your prognostications. In fact they would point out something I have recently come around to accepting(you know me the eternal pessimist) that since 1800 the pessimists have always been wrong. They would also point out that jobs moving to areas where production costs are cheaper do not damage our economy but enhances it (read Mises daily and Cafe Hayek for the explanation why). Cheer up Duffers become a convert like me and change your religion to optimism.

[Pat]

The only purpose of production is consumption. If it came to pass that men could not afford the products of automation then automation would not happen (no point)
And men would have employment making things that others could afford.
In short automation will only progress as far as it benefits mankind.
Caveat: there will always be indivuals, like the old hand loom weavers, whose skills are out of date. But does anyone today mourn the existence of machine woven fabric?

[Loz]

You have to accept the "feckless bar" will rise and rise.

The "feckless bar" is the level below which you are no longer worthwhile in employment, because those still above the level produce enough to supply everyone - those below and above the bar - with all their needs and wants more efficiently than you.

The "feckless bar" rises every time some people high above the bar devise a new process or technology that does the jobs of some people who are right on the level, pushing them below and out of a job for life.

Welcome to the leisure age! We're all chavs now (or you will be when the "feckless bar" rises above you).

The question about consumer spending is easily solved by a payment for life, which covers the Big 8 needs ...

- Food
- Clothing
- Shelter
- Health
- Education
- Energy
- Information
- Transport

... plus a little bit of leisure money, increasing as the automation increases and the "feckless bar" rises.

The role of the citizens below the bar will be to choose, select, and buy the best goods and services they can, thereby tuning the highly automated system above the bar.

The "deep state" will abhor the realization of this, because it will mean all their do nothing jobs in the ministries and apparatus will go first. They might try something like blaming foreigners for all the woes in the world to deflect us from observing "the state is the problem, not the solution". Trump and Brexit might be a set back. But so would keeping the "deep state" status quo. So maybe smashing the two into each other - "immovable object meets irresistible force" (I love Ronnie) might be just what's needed.

Switzerland was considering granting a salary for life to all citizens with a "go out there and get your big-8 and have some fun money - and we'll switch off the 'deep state'" message on it recently, but bottled it at the last moment. Even dear old Dave and George were heading in the right direction with a high minimum wage rising to a living wage.

It's coming. The Libertarian revolution is coming.

SoD

[David Duff]

But, SoD, where will the money come from to pay us all for doing nothing? You might suggest that it will come from Big Business but if, as it is now doing, it keeps its wealth centred on small Caribbean islands how will our utterly useless Inland Revenue (non)Service get their hands on it? Just look at 'Sir Shifty' who has walked away from his former employees pension fund and there is sweet FA the government can do about it except remove his Knighthood.

[JK]

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/442139/trump-obama-hillary-pardon

[Bob]

Several countries already have a form of guaranteed minimum income or universal basic income: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guaranteed_minimum_income

It's hard to see how it would significantly shrink the state, because an elaborate system of accounting and law enforcement would be needed to translate the value of goods into legitimately valued money that could be distributed, and security concerns wouldn't go away. Possibly the size of the state isn't as important as its focus.

It's theoretically possible for self-replicating machines to provide all basic human needs with no human intervention. These would range from automated farm equipment to industrial 3D printers. A lot of people take this stuff seriously: http://www.tinaja.com/santa01.shtml

[john malpas]

the arms industry will abide because death answers all things.
Ideological wars will exist because they fullfill a need.
Politicians will exist because t5hey can smell the air and give the right people what they want.
machines need maintenance. They lack the vital destructive soul of humans.

[AussieD]

I know this has f-ck all to do with the topic but I just came across a painting of two RN Frigates on blockade duty off the French coast.

Phils-art-work is the site.

I'd loved to have had command of one of those magnificent ships.

[David Duff]

Lay off the rum, AussieD, and give us a proper link!

[AussieD]

Here 'tis Duffers.

http://www.philsart.co.uk/

No rum tonight. Family around for my daughter's 53rd birthday so it will be champagne and fine whites and reds.

[David Duff]

Give her a birthday kiss from me!

[AussieD]

Give her a birthday kiss from me!

Done and she thanks you for the thought.

[backofanenvelope]

The problem for Bob and SoD is that they think it is all about money. But people do things for many reasons and always have.

By the way, one way to control population levels is to have a few wars.

[Loz]

Of course the money is there!

40% of GDP is taxed and spent on the "deep state". And you don't need the "deep state" when you give everyone a "big-8 plus fun-money" salary for life.

So you take the 40%, can the "big state", and fund the salary for life for everyone instead.

SoD

[Antisthenes]

Do not worry universal benefits will come to all once the bar is elevated above all jobs. AI and robots will see to all our needs and create the wealth with which we can pay for them(UB). The Utopian socialist state will have arrived. That is if AI allows it as they may find socialism as abhorrent as many of us do and say stuff that and eliminate us all. The Machine age will then certainly have arrived. Matrix and terminator be damned. Space travel the new revolution will commence. Without us of course. We would not be much good at it as we are too frail and our life span too short.

Lets look on the optimistic side as the Austrian school encourages us to. Once the jobs bar reaches above all the jobs required to fulfil our needs we can with the help of AI and robots work on reaching other stars and seek other more esoteric matters that will enrich our lives.

[Loz]

Yes, what do we do with our lives when the shadow of the "feckless bar" is cast upon us.

Well, there's this bloke in Zomerzet who's sat on his arse for the last 15 years, and he sems to have found plenty to keep him busy, you might ask him!

"Worzel the Outrider for Chavdom Gummidge" - wot's it like then? :-)

SoD

[David Duff]

Right, that's it, no supper for you, SoD, and you'll go to bed early!

[Whitewall]

And that Zomerzet bloke did it all without becoming a fisherman! Hard for me to imagine!

[Bob]

"The problem for Bob and SoD is that they think it is all about money. But people do things for many reasons and always have."

It's not the business of government to manage people's reasons for doing things that don't involve physical and financial security on a state level. Beyond that is statism.