"The Sun - We Love It!"

And no, not just because of the big tits on page 3 - do behave!  No, The Sun has had some excellent political commentators over the years and today we have one of the best, Mr. Tom Newton Dunn, their political editor.  In these febrile times we need some clear thinking allied to clear writing to get to the heart of things.  Mr. Newton Dunn offers seven exceedingly sound reasons why 'St. Theresa' will not suddenly go for a snap election.  I will not list them all, you can read them on The Sun site, but here are some of the key points he makes:

• The long awaited constituency boundary changes will give the Tories an extra 25 seats. But they don’t come into effect until 2018, so it’s well worth any Tory leader waiting for that first.
• Theresa needs the prospect of calling a general election still up her sleeve in case can’t get her negotiated deal through the House of Commons in 2019. That will be a far bigger fight than how to trigger Article 50, and she can’t call two general elections in as many years without looking very weak.

But perhaps the most compelling reason for 'St. Theresa to 'hang fire' is the effect it might have on the Conservative party itself which is split top to bottom on the whole notion of Brexit:

The biggest reason of all: an election now will split the Conservative Party in two, so big is the bitter divide now over Brexit and what it should look like. Probably a formal split. Every Tory leader for the last 30 years has been desperate to ensure that didn’t happen under their watch. Theresa sure doesn’t want it to be on hers.

The chances of the Supreme Court over-ruling three of the most eminent judges in the land is about equal to the survival of a snowball in hell, so the next few months will require some fancy footwork from the government.  The fact that the Judges are under huge 'incoming fire' from 'the smelly socks' brigade in the press will only serve to unify them.

So now is the time for the politicians to earn their money by serving the expressed wish of the public, a wish incidentally, that was only granted to them by those self-same politicians in a 6-1 vote!

 

Comments

[Whitewall]

David, do you have any idea how difficult it was to pull up page 3? Really!

[David Duff]

Sorry, sorry, Whiters, but I trust it - ooops, I mean 'they' - were worth waiting for!

[Whyaxye]

We often mock the tabloids, but their analysis is often better than the broadsheets when it comes to politics. My old British Politics professor knew the system inside out, and often remarked that the really intelligent journalists were employed by the Sun and the Mirror, rather than the broadsheets. There is a real skill in getting at the essence of an issue, and then presenting it in a way that is simple, but not distorted. TND's piece is a good example of that.

[Antisthenes]

If natural justice is applied and the judiciary is not to be become a political tool like the American supreme court then it will reverse the judgement of the high court. As there is a compelling case that the will of the majority of the people is the highest law in the land nd that should have taken precedent over other legal niceties. The evidence is the jury system whereby ordinary people like you and me can ignore the judge when giving a verdict but the judge cannot ignore the jury. I rest my case.

[David Duff]

"I rest my case."

Does that mean, Antis, that the invoice for your fee is in the post?

[Antisthenes]

Well worth a read http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86269 reiterating things I have been saying for years but in a much better way than I ever have and this from a dedicated Brexit man who although I admired his analytical skills never much cared for his rhetoric. With this article he has redeemed himself in my eyes.

[backofanenvelope]

One oddity of Brexit discussions is that they appear to be conducted in a vacuum. What about the rest of the EU? Their record suggests they will bolster the anti-EU feeling in the UK. Also, Hollande will be gone, as might Merkel. Junker must be well into his 5 years.

[Loz]

"Also, Hollande will be gone, as might Merkel. Junker must be well into his 5 years."

... as might May.

A vote of no confidence and she's out on her ear and we're into an election.

No-one will pay the blindest bit of attention to anything other than their local representative's stance on "soft" vs "hard" Brexit. My local Tory rep is Gove. A pure driven hard Brexiteer, so he's not getting my vote, I'll vote Labour if that's the only "soft" option on offer. Likewise, a Labour rep who's "soft" won't get the Labour voters who are "hard", they'll switch to a "hard" rep, even if the only option's Tory.

Bearing in mind the 48% will convert to "soft" Brexiteers, and the "Bregretter" portion of the original 52% Brexiteers will go "soft", it's going to be a damned close run thing, but "soft" will probably get it.

We could actually end up with a coalition of the left - SNP, Labour, "soft" Tories, even Lib-Dems - steering a soft Brexit through the negotiations and parliament, with the Tory "softs" switching back to loyalty if this coalition tries to put any other lefty crap through parliament (nationalisation, etc.). Plus the irony that the EEA / EFTA membership would act as an absolute backstop to any such lefty pretensions (the single market: The last flicker of Maggie's torch saves us).

And meanwhile the pols are so busy with all this they don't have time for anything else - cranky projects, nutjob schemes, bossy boots plans for everyone - for at least the next 5 years or so. And the status quo being we stay in the EU.

That'd be ok. Gives a plenty of time for metros to manoeuvre to protect themselves from Brexit, unlike the surprise of 23rd June.

SoD

[Whitewall]

SoD, might this apply to you?
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-rich-have-found-a-place-to-escape-the-horrors-of-the-world/ar-AAjLtBb?li=BBnbfcL