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Thursday, 03 November 2016

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Good gods man, you've had some sort of reality seizure. Fix yourself a toddy and lie down. It will pass.

I'll hazard a different guess about China. For better or worse Chinese and American economic fates have been intertwined, and we count on them to keep some control over North Korea. One upside to having sent China manufacturing jobs is that we will continue to ratchet down from nuclear or any other military standoff. There will be lots of eye gouging, including over the South China Sea, but major policy will probably not change much on either side.

I agree, Bob, on the interdependence (to a degree) of the Sino-American economies and as I indicated in my post, the Chinese leadership will be extremely reluctant to see a sharp downturn for an aspiring Chinese proletariat which is experiencing wealth beyond their dreams. However, do not under-estimate the drive and the stupidity of ultra-nationalism - just consider Hitler, the Kaiser, Napoleon and so on 'ad nauseum'!

Damn Duffers before reading your glowing report on Obama's foreign policy I was ready to castigate every single foreign policy of his. I love to hate him as you probably know. Now at least not so much for his foreign policy as your analysis has done much to change my mind. Well at least his domestic policies and his anti British actions (BP and Churchill's bust[his dad was a Mau Mau or some such I believe]) are something that I can perpetuate my hatred of him. I agree with Bob on China and it appears you do also with some reservation.

One thing (among many) is very soon to be a major major (and yep, 'Catch 22) problem can be described in a word - well maybe two - Erdogan primarily and Turkey generally!

I expect that November 8th there'll be something similar to an earthquake ... no, no, not the US elections. Syrian government troops with Russian "help" make the decisive move on the western half of Syria - the stated goal having (according to US media *experts) to do with Aleppo - but the actuality will be consolidating Assad's control to the outskirts of Raqqa.

There is a strong likelihood there'll be some sort of "mix-up" with Turkey which, as Turkey is NATO's eastern bulwark means mucho "gnashing of teeth and rending of garments" in capitals west of the Aegean and north of the Caucuses.

Too, there's soon to be another major major owing to Erdogan's designs on the US ally "Kurdistan" from Mosul and toward the same Syrian area of Raqqa which is really gonna put Obama's ME Strategic Legacy under the ... well I was gonna say "microscope" but ... oh well.

JK, Your takes on Syria and Turkey are fairly convincing. There's also potential for other mischief by the Russians. Forget Trump partisanship, the Fancy Bear techniques will probably be used in a lot of places and ways:

Why Vladimir Putin’s Russia Is Backing Donald Trump

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-hillary-clinton-united-states-europe-516895

Just so Bob &

https://20committee.com/2016/11/03/media-bites-on-trumps-kremlin-ties-but-clintons-are-long-standing-and-deep/

Tell you the truth Bob, I'm not so troubled with Vlad so much as I am Erdogan primarily and Saudi Arabia generally. Not so much Iran either except for the Shi'a militias being so ... uhm, well there's a Hillary problem all tied up in that too and I realize how cliche' is, "its complicated" but, I've stuff to do this CST pm business hours ... anyway just for now; the militias being subject to temptation perhaps?

And the above Combined with what I been going on and on about the last 60 or so days (you don't get my email service Bob tut tut) concerning the Greater Red Sea not so particularly for purposes hereon as Yemen is very particularly - the Saudis have been trying to drag us [the US] in to the little picnic they started up March 2015, ...

Well Bob, its complicated and me 'n you well, we're thankfully just two votes cancelling each other out!

JK, the article mentions places other than the US, including GB and the ME. Forget Trump, the GRU is going to be a lot of trouble: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fancy_Bear

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