I have given this question the benefit of considerable deep thought and the answer I have come to is this: somewhere between zero and -0.1! And that's looking on the optimistic side of things!
Lest you think me unduly cynical or so anti-European that I keep tripping over my prejudices, then I urge you to consider 'plucky little Poland'. The Poles, of course, are quite mad! Lest you doubt me, read the history of the Polish Lancers during Napoleon's time, and then their re-run in 1939 when their successors charged German tanks on horse-back - yeeeeees, quite! Anyway, the 'Euro-Polit-Bureau' has just re-appointed a previous Polish prime minister, Mr. Tusk, to the job of European Commissioner for a second term of office. They did this despite the fact that Mr. Tusk had been voted out of being Prime Minister of Poland by that dreadful collection of rubes usually referred to as 'the People'. The current Polish government, voted in by those self-same 'People', detest Mr. Trusk as being their very worst political enemy. (I know, I know, this is all a bit over-heated but, dammit, this is Poland!)
What the current Polish government failed to recognise is that Mr. Tusk, having already served one term as European Commissioner, is now regarded as 'un cher collègue' and therefor can do no wrong in the eyes of all the other 'chers collègues'. And if the current prime minister of Poland doesn't like it then as far as they are concerned he can take a jump in the Vistula!
I mention all this merely as background to ensure that you know the nature of the game when the Euro-fanatics are forced to deal with someone, anyone, who is not on the great Euro bus. And that is despite the fact that, on the whole, Poland has not made that many European enemies in recent history. So now let us consider Britain. I would suggest that in all the great organs of power within the European apparat, you could count the friends of Britain on one hand and it is not just a re-action to our intention to Brexit, they never liked us, they detest our history and the fact that on the whole, by and large, we have done quite well for ourselves despite the occasional boo-boo.
The resentment runs deep and we should expect absolutely no favours during these so-called 'negotiations'. This should become very clear, very quickly and so I hope that 'St. Theresa of May' is ready to simply walk away at the right moment.
Wouldn't it be nice if Mrs May put a PS on her Article 50 letter. We are leaving at midnight tonight. No more money will be sent after that time.
Posted by: backofanenvelope | Wednesday, 15 March 2017 at 09:17
By and large, with probably a few minor exceptions, they hate us and envy us. All they can see is a large island across the water that has for centuries stopped them doing what they wanted to do. Some have even had the displeasure of being liberated by us, and more than one has been occupied by us. Make no mistake, to do us down by hook or by crook is their objective. Brexit is just another battle in a thousand year European struggle.
Posted by: rapscallion | Wednesday, 15 March 2017 at 10:30
We need to distinguish between the EU (commission, five Presidents, EU Parliament) and the people's and governments of Europe.
The former will invent every difficulty possible in hopes of retaining as much of their power as possible.
Whether they can persuade the Germans to give up on exporting cars, the Spanish to shut down their tourist industry or anyone to forgo finance remains to be seen.
Posted by: Pat | Wednesday, 15 March 2017 at 11:16
Indeed they will do us no favours. For one thing, if they did there would then be a rush for the exits.
I suspect no deal will be done, or else only a deal so disadvantageous that "no deal" would be better.
Booker and North will hyper-ventilate, as will SoD I am sure, but we are where we are and it's the only way forward. Intelligent Leavers knew this from the start, and knew also that this game is very much worth this candle.
Posted by: Andrew Duffin | Wednesday, 15 March 2017 at 12:17
In a sense there is a deal already- WTO schedules with which we trade with the rest of the world and with which the rest of the world trades with the EU.
Posted by: Pat | Wednesday, 15 March 2017 at 14:06