What's the German for 'get me outta here'?

I ask because I suspect that is what 'Mutti' Merkel is muttering under her breath as she contemplates the difficulties of forming a coalition to run Germany.  As usual, 'A E-P' in The Telegraph describes elegantly the huge pile of political poo steaming gently on 'Mutti's' desk this morning.  In order to form a governing administration, she needs must cut a deal with the Greenie-loonies, just one of whose main demands is that Germany must ban all fossil-fuelled engines by 2030. Cue: fainting fits in the boardrooms of Mercedes and BMW!

Then she must attempt to make a bargain with the FDP which, as far as I can make out arose from an act of intercourse between Adam Smith and Friedrich Hayek!  These staunch 'Free Marketeers' are insisting that there be absolutely no debt pooling in Europe, no European Finance Ministry, no debt relief for Greece unless it leaves the euro currency and the imposition of strikt financial conditions on any country seeking a bail out.  Rumours of the sudden death of 'Junck the Drunk' are believed, unfortunately, to be exaggerated!

Another victim of collateral damage from this incredible election result is little mini-Macron who was absolutely depending on 'Mutti' Merkel to help re-energise the whole European project and given his proven success with, er, older ladies you can understand his confidence.  Alas, 'A E-P' reports that "Le Monde quoted him remarking that he is “dead” if Chancellor Merkel teams up with the FDP."  Now, remind me, what is the French for 'oh dear what a pity never mind!'   Finally, 'Mutti' is facing pressure from her mainly Bavarian allies, the CDU, who were well and truly outflanked by the FDP in their heartlands.

And we think we have problems!

 

Comments

[Timbo]

Events dear boy, events.

[backofanenvelope]

Standby for incoming from the hordes of "seasoned Ost Troopers" via their spokesman Loz.

[Whyaxye]

Imagine belonging to a supra-national trade organisation dominated by that pile or ordure!

[Whitewall]

"no debt pooling in Europe,"?! What will the Club Med countries do?

[Bob]

The politics of the inevitable advancement to electric vehicles is more complicated than what the Greens think. Ing is an investment firm:

https://www.ingwb.com/insights/research/electric-car-threatens-european-car-industry

Be ready for more propaganda from the oil companies and car makers.

[Loz]

Strong pound, 3.2% growth, deficit falling, and the best deal of all the 28 states, and Macron and Merkel on their political ropes.

We would be cleaning up in the EU right now. The two of them would be falling over themselves for some leverage from Blighty. We could be all palsy with the Jerry FDP, what a breath of fresh air - proper, in your face, out there, Thatcherites! We could stand by Macron and his reforms in France. He is soooo toasted now. Can you imagine how worthless and unpleasant his job and very existence is going to be for the next five years?! I actually feel sorry for him. If I was him I'd throw the towel in and go work for Uber.

But no, sadly that won't be happening.

SoD

[Loz]

And take grim note of the Bombardier affair ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-27/bombardier-s-6-billion-jet-takes-hit-as-boeing-wins-u-s-duties

A taste of things to come.

This is what happens when you don't have an independent court for commercial disputes and countering anti-competitive practices. The prejudicial courts at either end of the two states can conclude on and impose sanctions against "dumping" (backdoor subsidies and protectionism) against the other state's businesses, whether rightly or wrongly, which in turn causes the other state's executive to react with retaliatory protectionism. And then it's protectionist "turtles all the way down".

Note how this was never an issue when Blighty was in the single market. Because the ECJ is independent of any one of the 28 states, the judgements emanating from it couldn't be deemed biased by any one state against another. So the executive in any state had no provocation to embolden it into protectionism.

Now that Blighty is on its own, cutting so called free trade deals with states far larger than itself, expect more of this: Indian / Chinese / EU / US (delete as applicable) court of justice rules UK business was dumping its goods and services, imposes sanctions. "Take back control" nutters with Daily Mail readership behind them get up in arms and impose retaliatory sanctions. Turtles.

While we were in the single market this simply didn't happen. It's been an absent feature of the political landscape for 40 years between the European states, and between the EU and rest of world on account of the EU's clout imparted on behalf of the 28 states.

Another "back to the future" experience, courtesy Brexit.

SoD

[Loz]

"Now is not the time to negotiate away a valuable insurance policy."

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/how-naftas-chapter-19-could-save-bombardiers-c-series/article36405993/?ref=https://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile">https://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile">https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/how-naftas-chapter-19-could-save-bombardiers-c-series/article36405993/?ref=https://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

Hear, hear.

And what has Blighty just done? Torn up its insurance policy. Trump is going to rape Blighty in any "free trade" deal we negotiate by demanding the jurisdiction of US courts. There'll be no chapter 19 / ECJ to get an independent judgement from.

And if we don't accept Trump's court, it's no deal.

So either way, there's no free trade future for Blighty, only protectionism, which plays into the hands of authoritarian left and right.

Turtle muppets.

SoD

[Loz]

BOE,

Yep, the seasoned SS Ostfront veterans have been in action, with the predictable results ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/26/theresa-may-took-dictation-brussels-keynote-eu-speech-agreed/

SoD

[backofanenvelope]

"the seasoned SS Ostfront veterans have been in action"

Why not be accurate? They are the AfD!

[Loz]

The Bombardier saga is deeply revealing as to the motives behind supposed "free trade" endorsers...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/27/unions-fear-british-jobs-bombardier-hit-massive-us-tariffs-subsidy/

From that, it appears that Bombardier acknowledge that the planes should have been $33m each, but due to "dumping" (subsidies by you and me) they were sold at $20m each.

Their only defence is that nobody, including Boeing, was in that market yet. Oh that's alright then! If I want to make a SoD rocket ship that goes to Saturn and plays Pink Floyd to the aliens and no-one else does coz they know it won't make a profit, it's suddenly alright for me to force my way into your pockets and coerce you into paying for it! But when there are others in the competition it's not alright for me to do that. What about free trade at home - not expropriating one person's property to fund another's fake job?

So why would Boeing object to "dumping" into a market they're not in? Because "dumping" was exactly how Airbus got going - French state subsidy, and soon enough they were in markets that Boeing was in! So fair play to Boeing.

And how juicy is that: Saint Theresa of May whinges about 4,500 Bombardier jobs in Blighty - then Boeing remind her that they employ 16,500 in Blighty! Seems like the Don has got the Trump card in this game.

It could even play into the future of Northern Ireland vis-à-vis the UK and EU in a horrible rock-and-hard-place for May.

If she doesn't support the 4,500 jobs in NI, the DUP will pull the plug on the coalition and go with a referendum for NI to join the EU. Especially if Airbus offers to pony up and partner with the Canadian Bombardier firm - the French connection - via the new CETA deal to save Bombardier.

If she does support the 4,500 jobs, then the Don on-shores the 16,500 Boeing jobs.

Welcome to "taking back control" while being a bit part player in the Game of Thrones.

Hehehe!

SoD

[Loz]

If you read any article on Brexit and Corbyn this year, read this one ...

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/brexit-has-opened-the-door-to-corbynism/

Not the Graun, Indie, but your home territory: The Speccie.

Everything I've been saying for the last two or more years.

Finally the right-wing MSM is just starting to realize what it has done.

SoD

[Loz]

Even the soft left are terrified ...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/27/brexit-labour-tories-corbynites-right-labour

SoD

[Loz]

There's a great one-liner in the Speccie article ...

"The Liberal Democrats are the closest thing British politics has to a conservative party right now."

And y'all mocked me and called me "splitter" for voting Lib-Dem at the last election! I was the only one who stayed firm on conservative "modesty and incrementalism and "restraining governments of any stripe" - see the article.

Remember conservatism, you turtle-muppet revolutionaries!?

SoD

[Bob]

Don't forget Boris. He's taking great pains to differentiate himself from May for a "glorious" Brexit. He's also setting himself up as a champion for free trade and independence from the EU, taking a more populist stance than either May or Corbyn. He's keeping himself in the news, presently by leading on aid to the British Caribbean islands. Corbyn's Labour party remains fractured following Blair's "third way" politics, similarly to the way our Democratic party has been split by the Clintons'. There's still a chance he'll be your Trump.

[Loz]

"Corbyn's Labour party remains fractured following Blair's "third way" politics"

Not anymore it isn't. Corbyn and MacDonnell have just made policy announcements at the Labour conference that Lenin would have blushed at - and the Labour party lapped it up.

And don't think you're off the hook over there in the USA, y'all. This shit is coming your way too, sooner or later.

SoD

[Bob]

Time will tell, SoD. The factions held together long enough to agree on a wish list apparently drawn up last century, but soon they'll be arguing over Brexit. It's likely that will still be the #1 topic in the next election. It seems a lot of smart money is on Corbyn, but it doesn't seem wise to count Boris out yet. UKIP nationalism didn't seem a likely winner either.

America probably will swing left after Trump. However, it doesn't mean the same thing over here. The US has never been as far left as '70's Britain.

[Loz]

The Gaffer's pal AEP has bottled it and scarpered for the cover of the EEA ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/27/uk-trade-war-trump-bombardier-would-suicidal/

SoD

[Loz]

"The Legatum Institute, a free-market think tank, will on Friday publish research showing just how fast the ground is shifting: Corbyn’s plans to nationalise the water, gas and electricity companies is backed by about three quarters of the public. Even among Conservative voters, two-thirds support his proposal to nationalise the railways."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/28/time-admit-tories-stuck-past-not-jeremy-corbyn/

Bob, fancy swapping places? You'd be amongst friends.

SoD

[Bob]

SoD,

Nah, Corbyn's a wuss. No mass deportation, no wall, no swamp draining, no hookups with multinational oligarchs, not enough culture war - the man's a bore. I'd like to see you move over here for a while, preferably to Kansas, and see how much you enjoy our libertarian paradise. You'll have to make it fast though:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/15/kansas-trump-style-tax-cuts-economic-disaster

[Loz]

What's the Burmese for "Get him out of here?" ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/30/boris-johnson-caught-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple

SoD

[Bob]

SoD, that sort of thing is why conservative Brits love him and he could be your Trump:

http://news.sky.com/story/tory-members-want-theresa-may-replaced-by-boris-johnson-yougov-poll-11058430

[JK]

Maybe helpful?

https://audioboom.com/posts/6349475-anti-immigration-and-anti-eu-surprise-germany-paulr_gregory-hooverinst