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Thursday, 14 December 2017


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Paging SoD.......

Oh God, David, he doesn't need paging, he'll be 'in like Flynn' before you can say "Brexit"!

David - while I certainly disagree with these MPs' views on Brexit, the whole point of Brexit is to reclaim the sovereignty of the UK parliament, so to that extent you could argue that this vote is fair enough.

It looks to me as if May is on track to achieve the worst possible "deal" in the history of the world. She and her "negotiating" team seem not to be up to the task they have been given, and so continued oversight by parliament is probably on balance a good thing. It will help keep both May and her team and the EU honest (and I used the term advisedly).

It is not obvious to me that a GE would automatically lead to a Corbyn government.

What is obvious, is that May has to go.

Took an early lunch break to Flynn my way in!

The Magnificent Eleven!

Dya know, the "take back control" position of this now is (a) something I'm very comfortable with, and, (b), not something you Brexiteers should worry about.

Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, and everything in-between is all possible now, under the control of parliament. Not some "mob rule by plebiscite" trampling four centuries of parliamentary democracy. The system and, dare I say it, the voting hoi-poloi, have played a blinder to gee this up. By Brexiting at just 52%, and then hanging parliament, the system and hoi-poloi geed it up.

Then the pols grabbed it back from the government and handed it over to parliament. So even they deserve a pat on the back for yesterday's event!

More in a min, scoff's just arrived ...


So now, the "bank of slider-bars" (left for hard Brexit, right for soft Brexit, middle for something in between) is all geed up like a music mixing desk, and the producer is parliament NOT HMG.

Each slider-bar represents an industry.

So "beef meat" might decide they want hard Brexit, full left on the slider-bar. 59% tariff to the EU under WTO is no problem for these macho count-bumpers (note the "o" in there, Gaffer - nada in the swear box for yours truly!). They pay no annual fee for access, which mitigates the stinking 59% tariff.

The wussy metro finance industry might want soft Brexit - slider-bar to the right for them. 0% tariff for them., but they have to make an annual payment to the EU for access to the single market at 0% tariff.

Both have to take the regulatory standards of the EU if they want to produce for export to the EU single market.

So the beef meat producing macho count-bumpers say "far cough" (I was only quoting, and it's in Zummerzet language, so nada in the swear box), we'll keep producing to Brit standards and use the protection of the 59% on EU imports plus the Brit standards that apply to EU imports to see them off.

The wussy metro finance industry continues to supply using EU standards and "regulatory alignment", competing openly in the single market with the EU finance industry.

As well as allowing each industry to choose its Brexit, hard, soft, middling, this mixing-desk Brexit will allow both sides to claim victory. The Brexiteers will point to the beefy count-bumpers, and the Remainers will point to the wussy metro financiers, and claim the Brexit profile as their own.

Junck-the-Drunk now has a problem:

This middle Brexit is neither a failure or success. The Brit need industry, now a monopoly protected from competition behind 59% tariffs and regulatory disalignment, will quickly raise it's prices, lower it's quality, and go the way of all protected industries. It'll make the NHS look good before you can say "moo". The Brit hoi-poloi will become exasperated.

The finance industry, on the other hand, will remain competitive and flourish, pleasing the Brit hoi-poloi.

Junck-the-Drunk will have to highlight the degradation of the hard Brexit industries like the beefy count-bumpers and the pain inflicted on the hoi-poloi Brit consumers to keep others from exiting the EU.

Anyone who remembers Blighty in the 1970's pre-EU competitive rules and regs knows this won't be much of a problem for Junck-the-Drunk.

So all round, May is delivering exactly what she said: A custom, mixing-desk Brexit, that's a win-win all round - unless you're a hard Brexit nutter.

If she gets us through this in the manner described, she will be deservedly described as a Great British PM.

Conducting a retreat in the face of the enemy is the most difficult manoeuvre in the political / military drill-book.

Let's see if she pulls it off!


We are bowling along to a bodged result. We'll be out of the EU but still subject to all their rules and regulations. I understand that there will be a militia formed; all those retired ex-service people under 80 will be conscripted. They will be required to serve outside their own areas. So the Somerset Militia might serve in, say, Barcelona.

Or northern Finland.

Thank you SoD. I tried running it thru' Google translate, but it didn't help.

Oh, and btw, if there was anything designed to keep the marxists out of government it was yesterday's vote and the deal that preceded it.

The constraints on the hard nutter Brexiteers now applied, the voters can trust the Tories to deliver and follow through on a mixing-desk Brexit. Any slip-sliding into hard nutter Brexit, and Corbyn will be "in like Flynn" coz the voters will give him the lead to deliver a softer Brexit.

It's the watershed and game over for count-bumps and marxist swivel-eyed loons and their "mob rule by plebiscite" interpretation of democracy. The Brit parliamentary system, hoi-poloi, and pols saw them off.

Good on 'em. And my apologies for doubting them. With brains and balls growing back like that, Blighty might be ready to get back into the politically hobbled EU and lead the show. Or, if the Eurozone splits off, Blighty might pick up the Ost Bloc and Nordic waifs and strays and construct an EU of our own making.

Looking good.


Actually David, you have to go further back to identify the main culprits. They are three of them, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill who were behind that dog's breakfast of a Tory election manifesto, and of course the third is none other than Theresa May, who infallibly put her foot in it at every possible opportunity during the course of the election campaign.

I don't think that we're looking at quite the doom 'n' gloom scenario that you are presenting. Juncker, Barnier, Tusk and Schulz have been getting up the collective nose of just about everyone and were there to be another Brexit referendum, my prediction is that the Brexiters would win by a respectable margin.

All that the 11 (dis)honourable members have accomplished is that they've made it much more likely that Brexit will take place without any agreement taking place. If that happens, then what will happen is that we will trade with the EU according to standard WTO rules, which is what a lot of people are starting to call for anyway. Although the terms are not yet clear, Brexit is definitely going ahead. However, I think I am safe in predicting that if Theresa tries to sucker us into a deal in which we remain in the EU in all but name, the brown stuff will hit the fan big-time.

I wouldn't worry too much about Corbyn getting in just yet. When Theresa gets the boot, there will be (hopefully) two to three years to go before the next election, and as Harold Wilson once said, "A week is a long time in politics." Who knows - her replacement might actually be able to lead! Finally, when the election does take place, the changes to the constituency borders will have taken place, which should remove Labour's unfair advantage. For the benefit of out non British readers, currently, the Tories need an 11% lead to get an overall majority. With Labour, it is 3%.

We certainly live in interesting times

Richard, I agree with a lot of that, but the boundary changes are less likely to take place now that Mrs May has thrown away her small majority. It is another measure of her foolishness in calling an election before they were implemented. I believe they should have been implemented under Cameron but Clegg baulked them.

Rich, MF, three points ...

(1) If May goes, you get Corbyn.
(2) YOU, the 52%, are the cause of all this.
(3) You're getting the EU by proxy of "regulatory alignment" in whatever industries want it.


And one more ...

(4) Blighty won't be leaving on WTO "hard Brexit" terms due to a rigid end date for negotiations.

May's caved in on a rigid leaving date ...

So the negotiations can go on forever with no chance of a rigid end date causing Blighty to be chucked out on WTO terms due to time running out. It's hot air for years while a Canada Plus Plus Plus / Mixing Desk Brexit is tormentously dragged out. Most of us will be pushing up the daisies before ink hits parchment.

So it's hot air and turtles all the way down for the hard Brexiteers!

Merry Xmas!


Oh, and one more thing: in your "mob rule by plebiscite" interpretation of democracy, how often are we supposed to have plebiscites?

I suppose your answer is: Whenever we're sure to win, and never after we have won. A bit like the election that got the Nazis into power, and Adolf's conclusion: once done, no need to have another.

So I guess under your system and Hitlerite modus operandi we won't be having another pleb for the foreseeable future, because if we did you'd lose ...


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