Mrs May hesitates - again - and I don't blame her

First of all, welcome back to D&N now that Typepad have carried out their 50,000 mile service.  So far the 'old banger' seems to be motoring along quite nicely but 'we shall see what we shall see'!

Now, luckily for you, as the tensions rise over the Middle East imbroglio, you are able to take guidance from 'an old Middle East hand', er, that's me, actually!  Well, I did once spend a year living in a tent at the end of Runway #2 at Bahrein airport having been rushed out there by 'Her Maj' because some jumped-up Iraqi colonel had threatened to invade Kuwait but, of course, when he realised that I was, so to speak, 'on the block', then he rapidly changed his mind!

So, today we have more of the 'same-old-same-old' - different actors, of course, and a different plot line and with some added ramifications but it all sounds boringly similar.  The 'Trumpeter' is sounding off in his usually bellicose manner, and his new best friend, mini-Macron, is eager to join in.  Meanwhile Mrs. May hesitates, she is considering, she is weighing pros against cons, she is 'working the angles', or, of course, it could be that she is just 'frit'!  Well, if it is just 'frit' then she is absolutely right!

Ever since Suez in 1956, Britain has stumble-bummed its way into the Middle East with mostly disastrous results.  Not the least of the difficulties is working out who are your enemies and who are your friends.  Usually, it turns out that we do not have any friends at all!  Today, we have an added ingredient in the mix, a hostile nuclear-armed power with international reach run by a half-mad, ex-secret policeman with delusions of grandeur.  I'm not saying that given Putin's involvement with the despicable Assad that he shouldn't be punished but perhaps a better way would be to offer as much arms and ammunition to his opponents on the ground, even if, as is certain, they turn out to be just as bad as Assad.  If Putin is eager to strut his stuff around a war-torn dump like Syria then let him!

 Needless to say, the very best enemy of Assad is right next door - Israel!  Now that the utterly useless 'Obamarama' is fully occupied practicing his golf swing, now is the time for America to pitch in and help their armed forces in every way possible.  The growing signs of a 'hands across the desert' relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia is very welcome and needs to be encouraged.  So take your time, Mrs. May, and try holding Donald's hand again and giving it a stroke to calm him down before he pushes that 'yuuuuuuuge' red button on his desk!

 

 

Comments

[Bob]

So, David, how has Trump been more effective in Syria than his predecessor? Obama mouthed off about a red line and got punked by Assad and his BFF Vlad with a promise to destroy Syria's chemical weapons. Trump launched a pinprick strike against a government airfield as a response with similar results.

Trump announced the US would be pulling out of Syria "soon", and the chemical attack was the likely result. The Trump war team will try an escalated response, but an attack on the Russians is likely out of the question, and as long as they're present Assad will be going nowhere. Any suggestions?

[David Duff]

Bob, calm down, dear, I never suggested that Trump "has been more effective in Syria than his predecessor". Where he has been more effective is calling a halt to Obama's anti-Israel policy and his 'love-in' with Iran. And I have no suggestions as to what Trump should do because I simply do not have the information but by and large, keep out and just use missiles and aircraft from a safe distance as and where he can!

[Bob]

David, darling, apparently you believe Trump has been only utterly useless. My point was that he made himself worse by announcing a troop withdrawal, something he condemned Obama for continuously during the presidential campaign. An interesting question is how long the Russian people will put up with privation for the fantasy of restoring the Federation to the glory days of the USSR.

[Pat]

The West needs to make up it's mind. Either we are responsible for what happens in Syria, in which case it is our duty to colonize the place in the same sense that we colonised Germany and Japan after WW2.
If we are not responsible, or indeed lack the will or the means to see it through, we keep out and ignore anything going on that we don't like unless it poses an actual threat to our interests (in which case we do what is necessary to remove that threat and no more).
The history of our involvement in Iraq and Lybia are pretty good indicators that we lack the will to follow a colonisation plan through (remember that will have to be completed by a later administration, who will likely have other ideas). Further our means are not inexhaustible.
In Syria/Iraq I would say finish mopping up ISIS, make arrangements for a reinsertion of western power if possible and otherwise leave them alone, the brutality of the locals notwithstanding.

[Whitewall]

It seems Syria (Assad) is a war that needs to be fought for justified reasons, but it is a war that no one dares win.

[Whitewall]

Did the most recent chemical attack actually happen as reported?

[Bob]

If Trump hands Syria to Assad and Putin by pulling out troops, he'll also hand eastern Syria to Iran and IS and increase the threat to Israel.

[jimmy glesga]

Whitewall, the video of the aftermath of the alleged chemical attack produced somewhere by someone does not have any proof that a chemical attack occurred. False concocted videos have been made of alleged attacks against civilians by the Israeli army.
The video in question is onerous to put it mildly.

[jimmy glesga]

Bob, I am sure Israel can deal with any local threat. Israel cannot deal with anti semitism from Western so called Christian democracies who undermine Israel and give succour to Islamic fascists.

[JK]

Bob your "If Trump hands Syria to Assad and Putin by pulling out troops, he'll also hand eastern Syria to Iran and IS and increase the threat to Israel" might, on the surface (sort of a joke there Bob - you do know the port of Haifa can handle the surface vessel USS Iwo Jima?) have a ring of truth.

However Bob you're aware perhaps of what Juniper Cobra last month was all about? And the US 6th Fleet is known to loiter around the vicinity?

And what's Bob, pray tell, vital to [our] national interests the shithole country of Syria have that could in any way, be worth our participation (in spite of what McCain and his FSA buddies might say)?

Whitewall?

From an oldish post of David's (stealing from quoting John McCreary):

"What has not been reported nor evaluated are rebel [FSA] claims, published by Sky News in July 2013 for example, that they have a sarin chemical weapons program and delivery systems."

"The rebels have strong motives to internationalize their fight and to manipulate the US into fighting on behalf of Islamists whose colleagues attacked the US in 2001. Some American officials and experts have asserted that the rebels have no chemical weapons. Not even the rebels say that."

"So the media tally is the rebels claim they have gas and were gassed. The Government acknowledges that the rebels have gas and admits it has [had] gas, but denies it used it. The Government claims that its gas is under
strict control and the US officially has confirmed the Syrian government's
claim. Both sides also have rockets that can deliver gas."

"What appeared to be a slam dunk [last week] has weakened as more information has emerged about the source of US intelligence and about
Syrian rebel chemical warfare capabilities. A lot of information has emerged, but is not receiving mainstream coverage in the US."

"No news service has investigated rebel use of gas. Nobody has bothered to ask any questions."

I'd suggest Whitewall, what passes for "the news" outta Syria is timeless.

[Loz]

Putin is leading USISA into a trap.

Only 3 out of the 8 cruise missiles fired by Israel made it to the targets, the rest were shot down.

An Israeli F-16 was shot down a month back in the Syrian drone incident.

The Rooskies are routinely jamming drone electronics and GPS.

Putin has said he will shoot down USISA aircraft and missiles.

Putin wants USISA to attack. So he can stun the world by humiliating them with his S-400's.

The Gaffer is tight: The answer lies on the ground.

SoD

[Timbo]

Seems like someone is extremely anxious to keep the USA in Siria, which is the best reason to get out.

[Loz]

Typo alert: "The Gaffer is right" - probably true, but not what I meant, rather "The Gaffer is right"

SoD

[Loz]

It's going to take a coordinated USISA campaign. On the ground.

Equip the Kurds and mild-Hairies with the US's reserve stock of Dragon and Javelin missiles. Lots of them.

Send the Israel Chariots (Merkavas) over the border into southern Syria. Head along the southern border with Jordan to the Euphrates, hooking up with the mild-hairies and leaving off some Merkava battalions along the way. Cross the Euphrates and hook up with the Kurds and support them with Merkavas too.

Achieve superiority in numbers for air cover and air defence supplied by USISA now that the S-400's are an even match. There will be casualties. We have foolishly gifted our enemies to enjoy our Intellectual Property and Capitalism without the obligation of democratic governance and adherence to international law and institutions.

Assault across all the fronts.

Why would USISA win?

Because the Dragons and Javelins are tandem charge weapons with proven tank and AFV killing effectiveness against Syria's non-Active Defence System equipped Rooskie T-62, T-72, and T-90 tanks and AFV's, and also Turkey's non-ADS equipped Jerry Leopard 2 tanks and AFV's (if the Turks decide to get in the way and not join USISA).

Here are the Syrian Rooskie T-72's cooking off after a hit from a tandem charge ATGM ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ7rkOHNaik

And here are the Turkish Jerry supplied Leopard 2's being cooked off - even a girlie can manage it (turn the volume on) ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YafzmkvVRiI

The Syrian's ATGM's are Rooskie Kornet and Konkurs missiles, also tandem charge, but they are not effective against the Merkava due to the Merkava's Trophy ADS. This was proven in Operation Protective Edge: -

This video shows the principle of the Trophy ADS - it takes out the incoming missile with its own outgoing missile ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7gQEGzFcZA

And this video shows the practice in Operation Protective Edge in 2014 ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLCVi6PVNdY

No Merkavas were damaged by incoming ATGM's during OPE, while the Israeli charged the length and breadth of Gaza in them ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merkava#Operation_Protective_Edge_2014

The Syrian and Tukih tanks and AFV's do not have hard-kill ADS like the Trophy - and won't have for months.

We MUST strike on the ground while this advantage is still with us - an advantage we have lost in the air.

And the end game?

Stop short of the Alawite loyalist areas of Syria if Putin threatens to go global. If he doesn't threaten to go global, push on until he does. Then pull out of the Alawite areas. Leave them to Putin and Assad. No use fighting an insurgency in those areas. Regain all the Kurdish and mild-Hairy areas.

Then throw up a new wall and declare a new federal state: The Free Syrian Federation.

Drop an oil pipeline from the oil fields in Kurdish and mild-Hairy controlled areas running along the border with Jordan to Israel and out to the global energy markets. Each sub-state of the federation - Kurd and mild-Hairy - and Israel takes a transfer tariff off the oil to fund reconstruction.

MDS puts his dream of a new Arab, Israeli, and all-comers state with Western ideology, adherence to international rules, regs, norms, and institutions into action with huge investment into the new FSF in conjunction with Israel.

Trump uses his expertise to build a new wall. And this one is huuuuuggggee. It starts in the Baltic and runs all the way down to the Med and in and through the ME - around Israel, the FSF, and the Arab states - to the Gulf.

And then we starve the Rooskies and their allies out like we did in the Cold War. 100% sanctions like the Cold War. And let the gap between our technology and theirs widen again.

Let Russia collapse again, and then never make the same mistake of trading one's military IP with a pseudo-democracy facading a tyrant again. Next time the Rooskies have to take the full package obligations - membership of the EU, adherence to international governance monitoring, disarmament; not just the beneficial capitalism bit.

Dragons, Javelins, Chariots.

Biblical.

Game of Thrones - eat your heart out, we're living it.

We are at that moment again, friends.

SoD

[Loz]

The Don's latest Tweet ...

"Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!"

Now, does Uncle Sam have something up his sleeve with "newer", "smarter" cruise missiles that Vlad hasn't cottoned on to, so Vlad's S-400's are useless - and then toast?!

The plot sickens!

SoD

[Whitewall]

SoD, wouldn't it be a lot easier to reward some tired of being put upon by sanctions Russian oligarch to arrange an accident for Vlad?

[Loz]

Here's the worst case scenario Vlad could inflict.

I mean, this one would really hurt, I couldn't cope, I just wouldn't know what to do.

What if he, I can barely bring myself to say, it, he, he, cuts the internet cables ...

http://time.com/5223237/russia-targeting-undersea-internet-cables/

I'd miss the whole effing finale episode of the series!

SoD

[Whitewall]

JK;
re: SoD's 9:25 post, if 3 of 8 Israeli missiles found what ever their target was and the Russos shot down the other 5...it sounds to me like the Israeli mission was an exercise in recon of ground defenses rather than a major assault on a Syrian target?

[Loz]

Whiters,

I guess that might be what's building up to happening behind the scenes.

The oligarchs are sick of this sanctions thing, and unless Vlad's hard-nut Syria, Chem Weapons, thing yields some results soon they're gonna hang him from a lamppost in Red Square.

If Vlad loses the new Tomahawk attack vs S-400 defence thing, and the US and West puts up 100% sanctions (goodbye Nord Stream 2 - huzzah!) indefinitely, that might be enough. No ground assault needed.

Be good if the Jerries put up a bit of resistance to the cancellation of Nord Stream 2. Then Blighty, the Frogs, and Uncle Sam could give them a right royal diplomatic kicking too, into the bargain.

Might get us a better Brexit deal with the Jerries on the deck - even an invitation back in of Dave Cam +++ terms ...

SoD

[Whitewall]

SoD, I like the "hang him from a lamppost in Red Square" part. I'd pay good money to see.

[Loz]

Whiters,

Maybe the Israeli missiles were deliberately last year's model, and the Israeli F-16 pilot ejected early and let it happen, and the GPS jamming is secretly fixed but Vlad doesn't know it - all to trick Vlad into actions justifying a USISA attack?

The trap was actually a double-trap (is there such a thing as a double-trap? ... Ed).

But, Lordy me, you really couldn't make this up, Game of Thrones script editor faints at the thought, could it be: True to type, the Don couldn't keep his mouth shut and has given the game away!

Or maybe the Don's deliberately let him know the new cruise missiles are gonna do him in. So now Vlad will have to back down publicly - do not pass go, do not collect £200, head straight to Red Square for you know what Vlad!

I'm bloody glad my contract's ended, I'd have to throw a long term sickie watching all this develop otherwise ...

SoD

[Bob]

JK,

What I gather from reading various experts is that we gain some measure of control over the expansion of Russia, Iran and IS by limiting their actions in Syria. Personally, I have no idea if they're right or what a stable ME might look like if the fighting reaches a conclusion.

-

jimmy glesga,

You might be right that Israel can defend itself militarily without Western help, but the history of US and other military aid doesn't make that seem likely.

[Loz]

Mutti has pooped in her pants already - so soon!

Having told us over-and-over again that NS2 is a purely "economic" matter, not political at all, nein, nein, nein, the first hint of a whiff of Tomahawk exhaust fumes heading in Vlad-wardly direction making Vlad start to look like a bit of a dodgy partner, and what? - she tells us NS2 can only happen if Vlad signs a proper truce in Ukraine!

How much more political can it possibly be, ffs?! Jeez, does she have no shame? ...

https://euobserver.com/energy/141570

Bye-bye NS2, and good riddance!

Alexey, if you're reading this, get the old turnip and potato patch up to scratch, tip top and Bristol fashion. Coz you are going to be skinter and skinnier than a, errr, Rooskie in a crisis!

SoD

[Loz]

"Imagine if Washington and Jerusalem were to develop a joint military plan designed to contain and degrade Iranian forces in Syria."

The NYT tells it like it is ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/10/opinion/trump-needs-to-be-more-trumpian-in-syria.html

And imagine if the Saudis joined them?

USISA - chant it to the way they chant "U-S-A", so, "U-Si-Sa! U-Si-Sa!"

And let's get some Arab and Jewish boys and girls chanting it on the streets of the ME.

SoD

[Bob]

SoD,

After reading your link I found another take from the NYT. Btw, the Cato Institute is a US Libertarian think tank:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/10/world/middleeast/syria-us-chemical-weapons.html

[JK]

Y'all. All y'all,

There are several variant spellings for the mapspot of the place but, even all the way back to 2005 it served as the place where the Sunni colleagues of the guys (mostly Saudis) who felled the Twin Towers collected before moving on down the river into Iraq - mostly Anbar.

Deir ez Zor, Deir Ezzor, Deir Al-Zor, Deir-al-Zour, Dayr Al-Zawr, Der Ezzor, Deir Azzor, and Deirazzor being the most prominent variations.

Then after the Ryan Crocker negotiated "deal with the Iraqi government" (GW Bush era not, as some would rather have it, "Obama's fault") that's the place where what would later gain fame through its constant morphings through, Islamic State of Iraq [ISI], ISIL, ISIS IS, AQIM, AQAP [remains extant - seen currently primarily in Yemen but, same franchise which spawned the Ansar al-Shariah bunch which gained fame re: Benghazi Libya]

So SoD where you tag "mild Hairies" there ain't no such animal. Your error however might be understandable given that, our own John McCain in 2013 while visiting his (ostensible) "moderate freedom fighters [FSA]" managed to get himself photographed alongside Mohammad Nour and Abu Ibrahim which of the pair the former was known AQ and the latter firmly established as having ties to the Iranians [Quds Force].

Turkey's Erdogan y'all might've heard, "caught his stop at the train station" and is now firmly in control of what has come to be known as an, "Islamist Government"?

Erdogan y'all too might've heard, "doesn't care much for our [the US'] preferred ally[s] the Kurds"? Matter of fact around the region of Afrin (NW Syria) he's got active forces, including armor, intent on wiping out said US Ally?

But let's get back to Dayr Al-Zawr shall we? Reason I suggest going back there has to do with a couple of fellows who each at separate times enjoyed US hospitality in an Iraq-located prison and were listed on the rolls as Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and more importantly for the purposes of my comment, Abu Musab al-Bagdadi. I point to the latter owing to some few later years that was the guy most recognized when mentions of "The Caliphate" [Kirkuk, Mosul Iraq] enter the conversation. The twin-cities of Iraq being the eastern reaches of said Caliphate and Raqqa but mostly Dayr Al-Zawr Syria to the west.

Checking the map of Syria a couple things (ought) pop out - the Russian supported Alawites (Assad) are clustered most intensively near and/or on, the Mediterranean coast. The Turks are enamored with the area around where the Euphrates exits Turkey proper into the (mostly) northwestern edges of Syria. The US/Kurd forces "rumored" to be, mostly, "focused" to the east of both the aforeementioned Raqqa and Dayr Al-Zawr - which makes a weird kind of sense owing to one of those little things sometimes referred to as "a quirk of history/experience." And what might be the nature of that quirk?

https://ctc.usma.edu/al-qaidas-foreign-fighters-in-iraq-a-first-look-at-the-sinjar-records/

"Sinjar" ring a bell Bob? Well, what if I add, "the Yazidis"?

I'm tiring so allow me to get to my end please - given that the Alawites have always [Historically] clustered toward the hilly environs of extreme western Syria and the Russian interest seems to be some sort of "access to a warm water port" and the Turks appear to be mostly interested in A) its extreme southwestern border B) exterminating the PKK - and the US (for whatever unfathomable reason) lusts after the wastelands parts of eastern Syria (and the extreme south bordering Jordan)

Would it not be more reasonable than all this "War-Talk" to do some serious "Jaw-Jaw" and see if all the interested parties might come up with some preferable to flighting a bunch of missiles - "an arrangement" of some sort?

Yeah I know. It is the Middle East.

[JK]

Whitewall to your 11 April 2018 at 12:37.

I think that's a totally reasonable theory. That it also happens to "make some military sense" conflict-theater wise (for the Israelis specifically) ie: probe, probe, probe and only then ... would be, were I a concerned combatant commander, what I'd do.

[JK]

Bob to your Wednesday, 11 April 2018 at 13:35 directed to Jimmy Glesga,

Been awhile since I've last done a "deep dive" where these are concerned but I seem to recall listening in on a conversation in which a mention was made of the country of origin for Israel's fleet of Dolphin class had "inked an agreement" to supply three "nuke-capable."

Here's a somewhat dated piece:

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/israels-newest-and-most-advanced-submarine-is-their-las-1752459324

(The Dolphin class incidentally is highly probably capable of loitering for shortish periods within the Persian Gulf itself.)

[Loz]

JK,

Look at all those oil fields East of the Euphrates ...

http://energy-cg.com/MiddleEast/Syria/Syria_ConflictOverview_Image1x1_Oct15_EnergyConsutlingGroup_web.png

And look at the southern corridor running from the South-West border with Israel / Golan, heading eastward with the southern border with Jordan to the south, and across to the Euphrates.

The mild-Hairies are hanging on in there and a bit of ISIS. USISA could run a couple of armoured brigades along that southern corridor with ATGM's for the mild-Hairies and Kurds, dropping them of along the way, stopping off to finish off ISIS, cross the Euphrates, and deliver the second consignment of ATGM's to the Kurds. Advance towards Damascus until Assad and Vlad throw in the towel and agree to split up Syria as you described.

Now if any of the mild-Hairies have a change of heart, revert to type, and decide to use one of the ATGM's on the Israeli Merkavas, no joy. The Trophy ADS will take the ATGM down, automatically turn the turret to face said ex-mild-now-reverted-to-type-Hairy, and eviscerate him.

And why would said mild-Hairy do that when MDS has promised him a land of milk and honey with his share of the proceeds of the transit fees for oil flowing from the Kurdish oil fields east of the Euphrates, through the southern corridor (aka the mild-Hairy's land of milk and honey), into Israel, and off to the global energy markets?

SoD

[JK]

Actually SoD I agree with much if not most, of what you're saying.

Devil's in the details, as they say and my ladyfriend's pressing me to end this, my day's session on the computer. We'll get back to this thread tomorrow - early as I can make it.

Iran's "basing" near the Golan (about 40-60 kilometers mostly due north near as I can tell, W/E dispersion hard to get a clearish comprehension on, probably in the neighborhood of all the way to Iran) "Looks kinda like" the Russians are attempting some sort of buffer near the coast - but hard to tell as I don't enjoy the access I did back as recently as '14, certainly not as much as enjoyed pre-Obama.

The Israelis and the Russians do talk however the bumps. The Israelis and the Turks not so much. Of course "we're at Incirlik[?]" but from how I see Erdogan being so cozy as he once might've been - the Kurds dependence on us complicating, at least around the river to the north.

Our domestic situation ie; Everybody Hates Trump - makes it very difficult to game anything out.

Tomorrow SoD.

[Bob]

JK,

Thanks for the response. My point was that Israel depends on Western support for security and military aid, including hardware (your link makes the point) and intelligence. I didn't mean they can't defend themselves.

[Loz]

Bob,

Your NYT link is heading in the right direction technically, the "Assad Tamers" (ATGM's), the Tomahawks on their own being ineffective, and the "scale-up" process on the ground ...

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/04/10/world/middleeast/syria-us-chemical-weapons.html

... But it misses one vital ingredient on the technicalities, and therefore comes to the wrong conclusion. That vital ingredient is: The Israelis and their Trophy equipped Merkavas.

That weapon system completes the scale-up from the sand to the stars, making low cost victory possible for USISA ...

Air: Overwhelming superiority in number. Even if the S-400 proves a bit tasty, the Syrians / Rookies have only got 60 or so missiles. After that the Tomahawks have free rein, including to take out the launchers. Then USISA has unrestricted control of the air.

Ground: The "Assad Tamers" (ATGM's) and Merkavas. The Syrians and Iranians can send whatever they like against them, and they'll get beat. Badly beat. I mean like they lose the lot, infantry, tanks, and artillery, in one morning.

SoD

[Bob]

SoD,

You might be right, and I hope you are. However, we've seen this movie several times before under similar circumstances. This morning there are reports of a lot of activity on the "deconfliction line" between the US and RF:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-kremlin-line/kremlin-says-syria-crisis-hotline-with-u-s-a-in-use-idUSKBN1HJ175

Even yesterday Trump warned the Russians missiles were coming, one would assume in an attempt to get them out of the way of potential targets. Despite all the tough talk, no one wants WWIII.