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Saturday, 14 April 2018

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Well David you managed it pretty well! Vlad knew what was coming so he could rehearse his "Ajax Sulks in his Tent" routine for the media and the UN. We have seen that ole Narrow Head is still in his palace in Damascus and there are lots of pictures of the destruction. Larger picture...who else is watching? Fat Boy Kim and the Tehran Mullahs. Kim can be left alive without nuclear weapons if he is smart. The Mullahs? Not so much.

Those Russian oligarchs have got to be tired of taking it on the chin financially and having difficulty reaching their stashed away assets around the world. In addition they drag Vlad's dirty reputation around like toilet paper stuck to their shoes.

I agree, and would even go further. Trump gave the Russian forces stationed there a lot of warning, and possibly (who knows?) even tipped them off by secret means once the trigger-finger was ready. But it's not just a matter of Putin keeping well clear. Didn't he say that any attack would be rebuffed? That any ship launching missiles would be sunk? Well, he's done nothing. His "red lines" have been shown to be as worthless as Obama's. The message is that Trump does as he says, whereas Putin and Obama are just braggarts. He has achieved the Obamification of Putin!

I know far less about military matters than you, David, but do read the news. It might surprise you to know that over here Mrs. May is being given a great deal of credit for allied coordination. Gens. Mattis and Dunford are getting most credit for planning American action, though Trump certainly deserves some for listening to his advisors. Everyone seems to agree the basic conditions in Syria have not changed. They also hope the Russian people are tired of money being spent on the war.

W,
"He has achieved the Obamification of Putin!" Do you mind if I steal that line?:)

"Obamification of Putin", my arse.

It was a Pussy fart, and the world knows it. "A splutter on extraction", perfect anecdote for the situation.

We'll have to see how the Kurds, Israelis, and Saudis fair on their own when the US exits with its tail between it's legs.

SoD

Has Londonistan dropped the other shoe and frozen the Oligarchs' assets?

Seems to me if "messaging" is of any importance, hittin' 'em where it hurts ought in actuality, accomplish the mission.

"At a time of understandable tension in our relations with Russia it has been important to stress that this action does not entail some attempt to frustrate Russian strategic objectives in Syria."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/04/14/airstrikes-may-not-end-sick-barbarism-syria-show-stand-principal/

I think BoJo might have let the cat out of the bag (that's enough Pussy anecdotes ... Ed) on what's really going on. And I'm really dumb, because it's my own idea.

The West wants Vlad and Assad to continue with their mission to defeat the Kurds and mild-Hairies - and Vlad and Assad don't wanna.

The West knows the price of taming Kurdland and mild-Hairyland will be extreme - and the prize for achieving it, or approaching achieving it, will be a massive intervention by Israel and Saudi-Arabia.

The West is using the "Bait and Bleed" strategy proposed by me: Let the two bunches of Hairies slog it out forever, and let Putin and the Israel be consumed by it also.

One friend down in exchange for regime change in Moscow and Tehran is a price worth paying.

And not one bag of bones from that Trophy equipped Abrams armoured brigade to pay.

And the conflict remains regionalized.

BoJo and he Don have similarities in their inadvertent signalling.

SoD

And from Putin's perspective, he's desperate to get the West to intervene, take control of Kurdland and the mild-Hairy corridor, and negotiate a peace settlement so he can claim his prize and cut the costs.
Ain't gonna happen.

That's why the CW attack: To try and drag the US and West back in there.

SoD

SoD?

Some editing is in order.

"The West wants Vlad and Assad to continue with their mission to defeat the Kurds and mild-Hairies - and Vlad and Assad don't wanna."

Now with the editing outta the way SoD, that's exactly right - neither Vlad nor Assad wannas.

But Erdogan does. And with the greater Afrin area de facto annexed, Turkey will, (as I think some rock 'n roll band sang) "keep on keepin' on."

Oh and Whyaxye?

"Trump gave the Russian forces stationed there a lot of warning, and possibly (who knows?) even tipped them off"

No. Trump didn't, the "tipping off" came courtesy of Mrs. May's government. At least insofar as "the Coalition of the Willing" was concerned.

However W, you possibly recall Whitewall's querying me some posts back with, paraphrased, "Reckon what the Israelis were doing with that airstrike, probing maybe?" Me replying to Whitewall with, "If I was a concerned theater commander that's what I'd do."

Trump you may recall, some time ago stated the intent, "The US will move its embassy to Jerusalem." And following that McMaster, Mattis, and Dunford whipped up an exercise which came to be coded, Juniper Cobra.

Now it may be that Trump shared some targeting info with Mrs. May before she (or her intermediaries) passed those coordinates on however before Trump had the necessary info "another military" had to get it.

At any rate - Vlad didn't even bother turning on the S-400 system which, should be enough to allow us D&N Roundtable Strategists to deduce.

JK,

Saying the UK "tipped off" Syria is a bit odd? Do you think the Don would've thanked the UK if May had "tipped off" the Rooskies in contradiction to a plan to keep it secret?

As for operation Juniper Cobra, it's a regular two-yearly exercise between the US and Israel. There's nothing indicating there'll be some recent extra support for Israel from the US should conflict with Iran escalate. The Israelis know they're on their own until late stages in that conflict, and maybe not even then.

If Israel and the Saudis get consumed, but take down Putin and Iran in theatre and it stays regional, job done as far as the Don's concerned. Look how the Don was willing to cut and run and leave the Kurds and mild-Hairies in the do-do.

It's a good plan, Bait and Bleed (bearing in mind I thought of it). Be nice if the Israelis survived because they're good guys, but there's no such thing as a free lunch. Regional use of their nukes will get them off anything terminal.

SoD

Well SoD given the ruckus Trump's "enjoyed" [leaks etc] I'm comfortable your Mrs. May's got on his Christmas Wishes list.

This year's exercise was different in a couple respects, ramped up missile defense and the confirmation US LSAs, LSHs, LSTs, etc could be handled in Haifa (though the various ships of the class it was always known, could simply loiter in the AO) Still, having the Iwo Jima particularly, moored and secured does make an impression. And if that ship or, any of its class were to be ranged from the Golan, never doubt either the Israelis or the Jordanians would get a QRB.

"Bait and Bleed (bearing in mind I thought of it)."

You're "'avin' a laugh" are you there SoD, you'll recall ol' JK sayin' long before you ever considered it "Arm 'em all. If one side looks to be winning stop arms shipments to that one and up shipments till the situation evens out at which time - Arm 'em all equally again. Rinse and repeat."

I can hit the archives if you wish SoD.

Far as "the Kurds" you aver the Don "abandoned" you'll note the specific theater? The Kurds around Afrin are, generally speaking, PKK aligned - even our State Department has long listed the PKK on its Terrorist List.

The Sinjar/Kirkuk Kurds on the other hand well ... not even Vlad's "mercs" have dared strike (yet). Nor Erdogan (yet).

Archives at dawn, JK!

Ok, I think you chimed in around the same time, so call it quits!

It is a message for more places than Israel. Anyone under the NATO umbrella might wonder if they are now cannon fodder, in a worthless paper tiger defence pact.

As for a Billy-No-Mates disconnected island bobbing off the coast of a Russo-German Europe, with whom Vlad would be overjoyed escalating the conflict to Syria / Ukraine proportions, all I can say is, "Where are our F-35's for those two carriers of ours, you tricksy buggers?"

And to the Israelis, "We'll give you a hand, in exchange for some of those Trophy ADS to weld onto the back of our Chally 2's. I mean, we've got it coming anyways, so let's get prepared. "If you want peace, prepare for war" and all that".

Which is exactly what the Don wants, of course. Everyone to lift their game and pay the price - a broad deep buffer of "expendy-friends" between the US and the Rooskies.

Good on 'im. I would do that too.

SoD

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