Oh my Gaaaaard, Donald just pushed the red button!

No, no, not the 'yuuuuuuuge' red button on his desk which is bigger than 'Fat Boy Kim's, I mean the smaller one marked 'Trade War'!  Now, I realise, of course, that higher economics is well above your intellectual levels but not so for me!  Remember, I told you before, that back in the early '80s when 'that woman' had just torn up every accepted economic nostrum to the horror of all the 'experts', I was provoked to attend a series of ten lectures given by an Oxford professor of economics.  It may only have been ten lectures but with my 'yuuuuuuge' brain it was enough to put me close to a Nobel Prize in the subject!  Unfortunately, with advancing old age I can't now remember a damn thing about it!  Well, except the fact that almost all of the economic swots of the time who warned of economic catastrophe if 'that woman' did what she threatened were completely and utterly wrong!  Such faith that I did, just about, retain in economic 'experts' has just taken another hammering given that most of them have been proven clueless over Brexit which, they howled and moaned, would be an economic Armageddon!

Even so, that absolutely dependable guide to all matters economic and/or political, er, that's my gut, by the way, tells me that in slapping high tariffs onto foreign imports, 'The Donald', in all his wisdom - who sniggered? - may have started the ball rolling to - well, where-ever!  Who knows?  I certainly don't but then I thought he might have over-played his hand when, metaphorically, he gave 'Fat Boy Kim' a slap - but look what happened, 'Kim' more or less surrendered!  Yes, yes, I know there's a long way to go yet but all the foreign policy 'experts' got that one wrong, too!  Anyway, back to the 'trade war', if there is one, I can only suggest that there are just too many "unknown unknowns" for anyone to be certain of the outcome.  Mind you, if some of those lying liars who run the corrupt car manufacturing racket in Germany suddenly feel the sort of squeeze they helped exert on the rest of Europe, well, I for one will not break down in tears!

 

Comments

[Whitewall]

All the bold headlines about TRADE WAR are simply signaling time to renegotiate some existing trade agreements. Meantime pols and economic experts...people who have never had a real job in their lives...appear on tv and tell us with fevered brow, how all of us are going to DIE! Sometimes free trade needs adjusting to fair trade, less the masses revolt.

[David Duff]

Whiters, I just saw the latest headline in The Telegraph: "Markets shrug off trade war fears as UK manufacturing growth picks up". So we're not doomed - yet!

[Whitewall]

David, we're not doomed yet...but there's still time!

[David Duff]

Well, it had better get a move on, at my age I haven't got all day!

[Bob]

David, you're doing a good imitation of Kelli O'Hara:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcpIGFYwcH4

[JK]

David ol' hoss?

Don'cha remember when the economics of a situation gets kinda screwy there's always a singularly cheery fellow one needs turn to?

November 7, 2016 - Dow: 18,259.60

Jun 1, 1:38 PM EDT - 24,655.82

"Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work, so we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened."

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055

Guy's always you know David, "on the money!"

[Whitewall]

JK,
The people who know about economics tend to know little about business and the people best at business paid little attention to economics. I'm proof! You know, teach it or do it.

[Bob]

It seems likely Trump will back off as soon as he thinks he's made his point. Trolling is his way of doing business, and the more people he upsets the more he likes it, especially when they're foreigners. He's pretending to fulfill a promise to his congregation and, who knows, it might result in some adjustments.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. However, it's hard to imagine he won't realize he's pissing off his rural voters once the counter-tariffs start landing, if it gets that far.

[JK]

Yes indeedy do Whitewall!

[JK]

Bob,

It would appear we've crossposted.

You may have a point though ...

https://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2018/06/01/peanut-butter-on-european-tariff-retaliation-list

Depends on howeverwhichway the world's largest Chinese flea market (Wal-Mart) turns out to source its products.

[backofanenvelope]

The Canadians, Mexicans and Europeans have casually insulted the US President over the last two years. Chickens are now coming home to roost!

[Loz]

Oh come on, the arguments against protectionism are hardly advanced economics gobbledigook.

Matthew Lynn still thinks Libertarian, Free Trading, Brexit Blighty will follow the correct retaliatory path and ignore the Don's tarrifs, nay, actually cut Blighty's tariffs down to zero ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/01/best-way-deal-us-tariffs-abolish/

Cheap steel flooding into Blighty means for every Brit job lost in the steel industry we'll get two more in the car industry, construction industry and other steel input industries.

Meanwhile, for every steel job protected in America, the US car industry, construction industry and downline steel dependant industries will lose two due to increased costs and reduced competitiveness.

But Matthew Lynn is as much a Muppet as you lot. The Brexit movement is about as Libertarian and pro-Free Trade as Stalin's trigger finger.

To be fair, the EU isn't much better with its knee-jerk retaliation. And Canada has slapped tariffs on US quiches and playing cards (read the article).

The authoritarian madness descends again, as the lights of Liberty go out across the world.

SoD

[AussieD]

Well I don't know about anyone else [and care little] but "The Donald" has exempted us here in Oz from tarrifs.

The authoritarian madness descends again, as the lights of Liberty go out across the world.

It seems SoD that your judiciary is helping to extinguish the lights by putting Mr Robinson in the slammer for doing what mainstream so called journalists do all the time. Thirteen months in the brig for standing on a bloody footpath is un-bloody-believable. As for the EU I doubt if the apparatchiks can even spell liberty let alone know what it means.

[Loz]

There is just one unintended beneficial consequence of the Don's tariffs.

The retaliation tariffs by the EU have to be applied to everyone, under WTO rules.

That means there is now a huge downside of leaving the EU single market: It will put Blighty behind the EU's new higher and extended tariff wall.

If Brit steel has a 25% problem selling to the US, it will soon have a 25% problem selling to the EU if Blighty leaves the EU single market.

That's bad, but just imagine if Trump slaps a whopping tariff on car imports, and the EU retaliates likewise with car import tariff hikes. That'll be goodbye Nissan, Honda, and Toyota from Blighty if we don't remain in the EU single market.

In a protectionist world, your only option is to join the biggest bloc that offers a single market. And for Blighty, that's the EU.

Unless of course you're prepared to do a Singapore and turn the whole of Blighty into a Freeport with zero tariffs.

But we know that's a Libertarian dreamer's folly, a la Matthew Lynn. The Libertarian realist would choose the EU single market.

The Don has inadvertently provided an enormous boost to the Remain movement. So much so it will probably seal it: Blighty will Remain, either in the EEA or as a full member.

Ta very much Don!

SoD

[Loz]

And btw, about your post saying economic catastrophe hasn't followed Brexit.

Unemployment up ...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/21/uk-unemployment-rises-at-fastest-rate-in-almost-five-years

Growth down, from 3% plus and leader of the developed countries two years ago, to near zero and bottom of the pack ...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/25/uk-gdp-growth-figures-markets-ftse-sterling-business-live

And house prices falling ...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/31/uk-house-prices-fall-may-pressure-household-budgets

And Blighty hasn't even done Brexit yet! Imagine what will happen if Blighty actually tries to do Brexit - "project Fear", exactly as described, will become reality.

May's scorched earth policy, refusing to name her Brexit and do battle while drawing the Brexiteers ever deeper into bad news and damaging consequences territory, will pay off.

She'll get her time to make a stand for Remain, either in the EEA or EU, when the scorched earth has taken its toll.

One more referendum and we'll get to know the "will of the people" again: A sheepish volte face.

SoD

[backofanenvelope]

Quoting the Guardian!

[David Duff]

Thanks, BOE, I worry about that boy sometimes!

[Bob]

US trading partners have targeted their responses to products produced in states where Trump won bigly. All the complete lists are in sources that would be dismissed here, but this is from the Wall St. Journal:

"The reaction from allies was swift and severe. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government would impose a 25% tariff on steel imports from the U.S. and a 10% tariff on aluminum and a wide range of other U.S. goods, including some food and agricultural products. Ottawa said it would hold consultations for two weeks before imposing the tariffs on July 1.

Mexico’s Economy Ministry said it would target a number of U.S. goods, including some steel and pipe products, lamps, berries, grapes, apples, cold cuts, pork chops and various cheese products “up to an amount comparable to the level of damage” linked to the U.S. tariffs.

The EU has said it is also planning to hit back with its own duties on U.S. exports worth €6.4 billion ($7.5 billion), including on steel, motorcycles and some agricultural products. Up to €2.8 billion of that could go into effect starting June 20. The EU said it would also launch a case against U.S. measures at the World Trade Organization on Friday."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-slaps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada-mexico-european-union-1527774283

[Loz]

It's beyond purile, isn't it?

Quiches and cheese products. Playing cards.

There's a condition / syndrome, isn't there, where two people with this condition / syndrome, when together, both go mad and back each other up in their delusions and fantasies until it gets out of hand and worse. Can't remember what it's called, something "by proxy", I think.

There's a case in London just now where a couple tortured, murdered and incinerated the corpse of their au pair. I think the couple were diagnosed with this syndrome.

Well that condition / syndrome is what seems to be the case with Trumpeters and Brexiteers.

"Folie a Deux" psychosis, that's what it is, not "something by proxy": -

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/24/couple-found-guilty-killing-french-nanny-obsession-ex-boyzone/

SoD

[Bob]

Puerile indeed. Our so-called "leaders" have allowed themselves to be one-upped by demagogues who are willing to make a hash of global economics and social cohesion for short-term political gain and payoffs from the global elite. Utter cowardice and avarice seem to be the constants in the politics of the moment.