Now, about those "creepie-coincidence-thingies" of mine

As regular readers will be aware, I am plagued by a whole series of what I call, and please excuse my technical language, 'creepie-coincidence-thingies'!  So I was delighted to read an article over at the Aeon site by Mr. Cody Delistraty on the subject and significance, if any, of coincidence.  Of course, coincidence is real and occurs constantly but the real problem is whether or not there is any deeper significance in it.  Apparently, that well-known 'psycho-babbler, Carl Jung, believed there was.  Why am I not surprised?!

Of course, any discussion of the significance of coincidence rapidly moves into the subject of statistics and that turns out to be even more 'creepie'!

Or, take ‘the birthday problem’, which simply asks: how many people would you need to get into the same room in order to statistically assure that at least two share the exact birth month and day? Given that there are 365 days in a non-leap year, and that most people you know probably don’t have the same birthday, you might reasonably suppose that you’d need quite a high number to find an exact match. Hundreds, perhaps, and even then you’d be lucky to find two people with the same birth month and day. Statistically, however, you need only 23 people in the room for a greater than 50 per cent (hence ‘statistically probable’) chance of finding two people with the exact same birth month and day. For a 99.9 per cent chance, you need only 70 people.

Now, I find that very hard to believe but, as I have told you all on many occasions, I am absolutely no maths swot!  Mind you, my lack of expertise in statistics probably explains my youthful but brief and disastrous relationship with my local 'Bookie' back in the day!  The significance one attaches to coincidence is somewhat similar to religious belief - you've either got it or you ain't!  Anyway I recommend Mr. Delistraty's article which is fascinating.

 

 

Comments

[Bob]

All philosophy is nonsense because its authors follow the same process as novelists or mythologists. They attempt to write an explanatory story that's consistent within a limited scenario. To put it in a way you'll appreciate, David, there's almost no one outside a political science classroom who gives a pinch of manure what Edmund Burke thought about anything; contrary to the assertions of a certain mutual acquaintance of ours.

The explanation for why coincidence can seem important has to do with the basic functioning of the human mind. We evolved to remember the "hits" and forget the "misses". It's more important to remember where the watering hole is than all the places it's not. Jung didn't bother to remember every time he mentioned an object and it didn't appear.

[Timbo]

So what are the odds that you would find another couple with the same birthdates as yourselves?

As it happens when we moved to Spain we made friends with a couple, the husband has the same birthdate as me, with five years difference, and the wife has the same birthdate as my better half.

[David Duff]

Dammit, Timbo, have you, or your better half got a tip for the 2.30 at Kempton Park?

[Timbo]

My tip is try to avoid fast women and slow horses.