In which I indulge in (yet more) kleptomania

Well, it's jolly hard work being an original thinker in this confusing world so you will not be surprised to see me nicking all of Mr. Asa Bennett's expertise as published today in The Telegraph.  In his forensic examination of H.M.'s Treasury (current prop. Phillip 'Eeyore' Hammond MP) he carefully compares their dire predictions as to what would happen if we, the Peeps, had the infernal cheek to vote for Brexit.

Such a disastrous choice would, they forecast, mean a  "fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth”. 

There has not been single quarter of negative growth and no sign of a recession.

They also warned that ministers would need to borrow between £24 - £39 billion. 

Government borrowing has actually fallen to its lowest level in 16 years and in July we enjoyed the biggest surplus since 2000.

The Treasury warned of “lower future productivity” after a vote to leave.

"Official figures confirm that output per hour worked is higher than where it was at the time of the referendum, with the last update from the Office for National Statistics revealing that it had grown by 0.9 per cent compared with the three months before. This marked its first rise since late 2016 and the biggest increase since the second quarter of 2011".

George Osborne, the then Chancellor, warned that house prices would drop through the floor.

The average UK house price has risen over the last two years and it represents a rise of around 7 per cent. 

The Treasury thought “unemployment would increase by around 500,000” after a Brexit vote and some officials thought the number could be as high as 820,000. The unemployment rate would increase by as much as 2.4 per cent.

The number of people out of work has fallen from around 1.63 million to 1.36 million. Such a low level has not been seen in over 40 years.

The Treasury warned that youth unemployment would increase by around 70,000 after a Brexit vote.

The youth unemployment rate has fallen over the same period, from 13.6 per cent to 11.3 per cent, marking its lowest level since records began.

The Treasury thought the economic shock after voting Leave would see real wages fall by at least 2.8 per cent, and as much as 4 per cent.

"The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that real wages not only rose in the month after the referendum, but they are 0.8 per cent higher than in June 2016."

So my final question to the mandarins at the Treasury is this: How much are you costing us and are you even worth 10% of that total?  It's no good asking 'Eeyore' Hammond, he hasn't a clue!

My thanks to Mr. Asa Bennett for a superb article.

 

 

Comments

[Bob]

The obvious flaw in the rosy scenario is that Brexit hasn't actually happened, and might not. So far there have only been a vote, some negotiations, and much Sturm und Drang. Don't put your party hat on just yet, David.

[backofanenvelope]

The Project Fear forecasts were for post referendum not post Brexit.

[Whitewall]

How can this be? All the 'proper people' said woe and misery would set in. If the 'wrong people' win elections the same thing can happen.

[Peter Whale]

As a person who has lived the last fourteen years in France, I love Europe and hate the EU with a vengeance. When you see the turmoil caused in Greece Spain, Italy by the EU dictats with their German overseers. You know it has been for the benefit of one country only. Vichy France is alive and well and will tank with the turmoil of the peasant (farmers) class after Brexit when the CAP subsidies are revised.
Love of one's country is not something to be despised and this will come about in many countries after Brexit.
Well done the Brits say I, you have saved Europe once again.

[Loz]

The usual from me: We haven't even done Brexit yet, pound down 15-20%, Blighty went from 3.2% growth to 1.7%, top to bottom of G7, @Peter Whale "You've got to be in it to win it" i.e. you don't get to kick the Jerries off the top job of EUI and replace it with EUII under Anglo-centric governance by leaving the hotair equivalent of the field of glory in Europe, etc.

SoD