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Monday, 22 October 2018

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You must have expected a mushroom cloud, David. What Trump is doing is not realpolitik. He has sided with Saudi Arabia and Israel more or less unconditionally in an attempt to counter Iran. A lot of Middle East experts, including conservatives, don't think that's worked out so well:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/trumps-record-of-failure-in-the-middle-east/

https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/trump-middle-east-year-two-scorecard

Saudi Arabia is an ally of convenience at the moment as a hedge against Iran. This Khashoggi character is no great loss as he was a slimy character with dubious friends. Maybe that's why he was picked up as a 'journalist' by the WaPo. The MSM has blown him up into something he wasn't so they can now wax indignant over something to try and rinse themselves off from the self soiling they did over the Kavanaugh circus. It is to be expected that if an 'ally' is going to off somebody...they do it a lot better than this.

Of course the long-term solution to our middle eastern problems lies in undermining the importance of middle eastern oil. This has of course begun and is accelerating via fracking and the opening of new oil fields, and it needs to be pushed further. Restoring the supply from Venezuela would help.
The more that happens the more we can leave the middle East to sort itself out, and the less means middle eastern countries will have for interfering elsewhere.
That the head of the local Muslim brotherhood and Osama bin Laden's best mate got taken out is no tragedy, even if he did write a column of two in a newspaper. Turks, Saudis Russians and Chinese make people disappear on a regular basis, including apparently the head of Interpol. But why do it so ostentatiously? I presume the intention was to send a message, but to whom?

From the Machiavellian perspective, I disagree with picking the one most likely to win. No sooner have they won than they will revisit their stifled animosity towards you and renew it.

If both sides are your spiritual and values enemy no victory of one over the other with your support will change that. You're next.

Back the underdog so the fight is longer and more damaging to both. Switch sides if your side gets on top and you can get away with it. Democracy makes that easier, as evidenced by the switch from Obama-Iran-Shia to Trump-Saudi-Sunni.

Let them grind each other into the desert until all that remains of them is a red smudge in the sand.

So that does seem to point to picking the underdog Saudis just now.

SoD

Let them grind each other into the desert until all that remains of them is a red smudge in the sand

Their grandfathers were born in tents in the desert. With a bit of luck so will their grandchildren.

The "hairies" and their followers have been a problem to the West for 1400 years.

He may be a son of a bitch but he’s our son of a bitch.

Also,

We don’t have friends only interests

This really hasn't anything to do with the United States and that's whast nobody's getting. Doesn't have to do with Iran particularly either.

The crux of the thing is the Ottomans and the Sunni.

All the "other stuff" is inconsequential so far as the contest between "the possessors of the holy places" and Johnny Turk are concerned. Even, in this particular matter, Iran is a sideshow. And even Israel in this doesn't matter.

We "Western Thinkers" in this ought only recognize us to say, Gentlemen, we'll hold your coats." For what its worth it doesn't much have to do with Islam either.

In this moment Erdogan is baiting the US specifically, NATO generally in the accustomed confidence - given the Geography - "we tend to hasty action" (usually of the ill-considered sort).

Haven't the Neocons gotten us into enough shit that by now we don't recognize that "strategic pause" has been, historically, a good tactic?

Thank God for President Donald Trump.

On the Sunni side up (as I like my eggs, btw) matter, there is a wee issue though. Which bunch? The buggers have done an encore of the PFJ and JPF (don't tell me you don't know who they are already) and schismed.

On the Sunni side you've got Turkey-Muslim-Bro-AQ vs Saudi-Arab-Faux-Reform. That really is a nose-holder choice.

We'll find out today which way Pompeo's "fact finding" mission in Riyadh and Instanbul went. If Erdogan spills the beans and dumps the Saudis deeper in the Shiite you'll know the Saudis got the "backed-up underdog" deal. If Erdogan buttons it (maybe with a bit of grandstanding) then Trump has cut the Saudis loose.

Pretty certain there's some lurid details of bonesaw usage coming around lunchtime. It's "steak Tuesday" in the canteen today, nice.

SoD

Upon reading the headlines about Khashoggi, I thought Saudi Arabia had rounded up 500 journalists and murdered them in cold blood. Alliances at risk,major arms deals hanging by a thread,diplomats at all levels issuing dire warnings worldwide etc.
Nope,just one journalist murdered, probably by Saudis in
their consulate. I cannot be alone in thinking that the level of misplaced priorities by our Foreign Office bringing all their ludicrous pomposity to bear might be a tad too high.

That TURKEY is making noise about a murderered journalist is beyond satire.

Let them grind each other into the desert until all that remains of them is a red smudge in the sand.

SoD


Amen to that.

Ay oop, lassie, I am delighted to have a proper, tough 'Yorkie' on this effete southern site but please do not encourage 'SoD'. In case you are unaware 'SoD' stands for 'Son of Duff' and he's a very naughty boy!

Phwoooaarr, eh, phwoooaarr! ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/23/jamal-khashoggi-death-erdogan-turkish-parliament-live

I was suffering from Game of Thrones withdrawal symptoms since the last episode however many months ago it was, and was desperately hoping for some slicing, slitting, and chopping with bonesaws videos! But just like the show, Dirty Erdy has left us on tenterhooks until the next episode!

Meanwhile MBS says "Eff you" to the West and turns East ...

https://twitter.com/BazziNYU/status/1054535561908760577/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1054535561908760577&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2018%2Foct%2F23%2Fjamal-khashoggi-death-erdogan-turkish-parliament-live

Vlad will be in his knickers before you can say "Flynn". Both sides of the Sunni-Shia divide in Vlad's hands in a few years. Good Machiavelli!

Looks like the Don has dropped both his ME bollocks in one fumble.

Or maybe just MBS is lost to him? Perhaps Dirty Erdy will become his NBF?

The Don'll have to drop the sanctions on Turkey, of course, and let that Muslim cleric go - back into the tender embrace of Dirty Erdy's justice system. That's like, soooooo embarrassing! But if the Don doesn't, that's whole ME lost to the US and the West. Ouch. You might say "good riddance", but from the West's perspective I guarantee you an e-pint that's going to hurt the morning.

Gotta thank you lot for breaking the boring snoring rules based system 23rd June 2016 and whenever the Don got hoisted up to be POTUS. You sure have made an interesting horror show out of it all! Shame you might have taken the West down with you, but hey ho, I haven't probably got that much time left anyhow so I don't give a shit.

SoD

That's the spirit, SoD. Enjoy the show! Where else could you watch something produced by the ghosts of Richard Nixon, P. T. Barnum and Federico Fellini?

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