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Sunday, 25 November 2018

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They still have to vote on it, but being the cowardly wretches we have as MPs, I suspect a stitch-up and lots of babbling excuses afterwards.

Uncle Joe Corrobin hasn't a clue, and luckily, the rest of his mob are so thick, they'll just keep their jobs and expenses, and ignore anything with more intelligence than the average 11 plus questions.

I really despair at the laziness and incompetence of our elected parliament crowd, they are as fickle as the ficklest fickleburger, sold by Mr Stanley Fickle of Fickle Street, Fickleworth, Fcks.

If I was a Brexiteer I'd take what's on offer and live to fight another day.

To vote Teflon Theresa's deal down means engaging the "will of the people" (dread words) again. And this time the options will be "No deal", "May's deal", "Remain".

Since the hoi-poloi will never vote "No deal", that leaves only two options, of which "May's deal" is the more Brexity than the other.

Remember, May's deal is only the exit deal. The real-deal comes next. And May's deal is so full of pro-Blighty holes, the Northern Ireland "Switzerland of the world" and mainland Blighty "services smuggling" being the two prime examples, our businesses and army of lawyers will have a field day. The EU will be begging for a real-deal, and the delicious irony will be it is their backstop that will trap them into perpetual renewal of the status quo, i.e. May's deal, and deny them a retreat.

Thereby, Canada++ with bells on becomes a very real option, which should be a Brexiteer's dream come true.

SoD

Well, fickle me, Scrobs, what a witty circumnavigation of my swearing ban, well done! SoD, are you reading this?

Yes, you dickle-head :-)

SoD

"Since the hoi-poloi will never vote "No deal"

I shouldn't be too sure of this!

David, "dashing downstairs" and "dashed back upstairs"...just what kind of high energy feed are you on?!

We'll see, BOE, we'll see.

Odds on there'll be more climb-downs than a descent from mount Everest in the hoi-polloi as much as the pols, imho.

The more I look at that Tourcoing battlemap the more the wonderment swells up ...

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/32260/32260-h/images/i004tmb.jpg

A perfect execution of a "Simultaneous double-Cannae and maneuver of the central position" strategy.

Sometime in January I have been invited to give a talk / workshop on the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars to the sixth from pupils at Wellington College who are considering this epoch as the history module of their baccalaureate. So I will be standing in the Waterloo Hall ...

https://www.wellingtoncollege.org.uk/venue-hire/venues/waterloo-hall-for-events-page/

... telling boy and girls how it wasn't actually Wellington who won the battle of Waterloo, but rather a Colonel by the name of Colborne of the 52nd Oxfordshire Light Infantry! Will I leave in one piece, I ask myself!
The truth is sometimes a high risk strategy, methinks!

Anyway, among many other sub-topics and aspects, I want to cover Clausewitz's isomorphism, "Politics is war by other means". I want to give them some concrete examples of the same processes and forms appearing in politics and warfare, and the "piece de resistance" of the examples being Teflon Theresa's combined "double-Cannae and manoeuvre of the central position" strategy for Brexit, it being so topical.

Now you might be thinking I'm adopting an even greater "high risk strategy" because TT's strategy has not even played out yet! Not so. Because if TT has misjudged the power of the enemy in the central position that she is assailing right now, and she bounces of it and is destroyed, it will be her misjudgment that still proves the rules of double-Cannae and central position.

Double-Cannae and Manouevre of the Central Position are like a yin-yang diagram: opposite but the same. When one army bets on one and the opponent bets on the other, the yin-yang-ness becomes apparent. Who wins? The general who evaluated the relative powers of the two flank attacks of the double-Cannae versus the force in the central position.

So it will be my judgement and TT's that will be shown to have been false if she bounces and you turn out to be right on the strength of the central position, BOE, not the underlying principles of politics / warfare.

Let battle commence! Should all be home in time for Xmas! (Or maybe Easter ...).

SoD

God almighty, I'm feeling sorry for those boys and girls already!

When I was last in PNG, about 10 years ago, it was very apparent that the Chinese have already bought up just about everything and built everything they want.
They already own PNG and fair clumps of the rest of the Pacific. Too late to worry about it.

The cousins are rightly concerned about growing Chinese beligerance, both military and financial, and are pushing back. The same is occurring here in Oz.

While Andra is right about the Chinese buying lots of stuff it is difficult to use something in another country if the locals say you are now persona non grata.

As for PNG "the cousins", Oz and PNG are about to establish a joint naval base in the territory as a counter to the Chinese buying spree.

What most people in Europe and the Americas [particularly the east side] forget is the vastness of the Pacific area.

Pick any good history of the war in the Pacific, get an Atlas, and you can hopefully understand the complexity of any struggle for this part of the world.

I don't share your optimism SoD, May's deal is designed by the EU and Oily Robbins to remove us from a place where we can leave, and dump us in a limbo where we can't.

They'll invoke the backstop around breakfast time on april fools' day and that'll be the end of it.

You talk of lawyering up and how ours have bigger briefs then theirs? may even be true but this will be tried in the EC"J" and the process is the punishment.

Oh, and Duffers, I am suffering from indigestio have been forced to eat my luncheon sandwich without my ration of subtle humour collected from around the globe and brought to us for our delectation on Monday mornings.

You elf on strike or sompin'?

Duffers me old fruit cake, everything ok?

What Jack the Dog said.

ok, now I am seriously concerned! I certainly hope all that dashing did not take its toll!

Jack the Dog,

During the backstop an independent panel selected 50% by Blighty and 50% by the Euros will decide disputes on matters of May's deal, with the ECJ as reference for points of law.

So we've got half the jury - which is 50% more than we had, and 50% more than any other EU state.

If that's enough to add a few points of margin onto Blighty's goods and services, that's a few points of margin the Jerries, Froggies, et al won't be having.

Global capital will do the rest.

SoD


Today the Chancellor is doing the rounds telling all and sundry what the economic costs of each of the options is. Like project fear, there is no indication of the underlying assumptions and the projections must be assumed to be Onageristic Estimates, where an Onager is a type of wild ass and an estimate is a posh word for a guess.

It seems crazy to me, that, apart from a few whispers here and there, nobody seems to have realised that as a baseline nothing will change under May's deal, plus, Blighty will be the only place in the world able to sell undercutting services to the single market and customs union, and able to sell manufactured goods from NI with undercutting services inputs (80% of the product cost) to the same.

How can it be possible that Blighty will be worse off if we have all we had before, plus, two new massive and clearly beneficial statuses and, most importantly, a monopoly over these two new statuses in the world?

Maybe it's just being hushed up so the euros don't get wind of it causing the EU parliament not to sign?

But then how to get it through parliament if the truth can't be highlighted?

I guess Teflon Theresa's gonna use her reserve, as I've described before: Put it to the people, knowing that out of "No deal", "The deal", and "Remain" as the only options left the peeps will go for "The deal".

It's funny, I have actually become a Leaver - but only on TT's deal terms!

Who'da thunk it?

SoD

Labour is swinging over to supporting a second referendum. John McDonnell is paving the way for Teflon Theresa to deploy her reserve army - the peeps! ...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-labour-john-mcdonnell-remain-corbyn-peoples-vote-a8655911.html

So! Pencils at dawn it is!

SoD

Actually, thinking about it, a three choice referendum isn't what Teflon Theresa will likely do. That would be complicated and lead to accusations of going against her word on not having a "people's vote" and not respecting the original referendum.

She simply needs to put her deal to the people. A simple yes or no. Uncomplicated, and she can claim it's not the same as the "people's vote" which has no deal and Remain as choices. And it respects the original referendum by not offering Remain as an option.

If the peeps vote her down she resigns.
Chaos ensues. She can even tell the peeps before the vote and let the braying swivel-eyed loons work themselves into a frenzy as a portent of the future if they vote her down. The peeps will come good.
She puts herself at the head of the final charge into the desperate remnants of the enemy with personal risk and wins the day.

A legend of courage, determination and skill is born ...


https://goo.gl/images/LDLXE2

SoD

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