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Monday, 27 May 2019

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"The share of the vote won by the brand new party which argues for the hardest possible Brexit is virtually identical to the combined votes of the two parties, the Lib Dems and Greens, who support Remain. "

I have seen this idea stated several times this morning, but actually the position is more pro-Brexit than Ms. Daley and others suggest.

Although the vote for The Brexit Party was undoubtedly a protest, I can't conceive of anyone voting for it who didn't want to get out of the EU. People might have wanted to give the major parties a good kicking, but they all voted for a single-issue party/pressure group. However, it's a certainty that many of the people voting Tory, Labour, SNP, and even Lib Dem would have wanted out of the EU, but simply chose to put party loyalty or another policy issue above the EU membership question.

What on earth are you and your darling Daley talking about?! ...

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/375/cpsprodpb/11BF3/production/_107119627_brexit_pos-nc.png

The Remain parties achieved 40.4%, and the Brexit parties 34.9%.

How on earth do you spin the maths out to a Brexit victory! I know maths not your strong point, but that's frankly incredible. What an absolute whopper!

SoD

Double-check your own maths, SoD, because it is a reasonable assumption that at least half the Tory and Labour voters are pro-Brexit but wished to remain loyal to their party. If you add on, say, half of their votes to the Brexit side you get more or less the same result as the last referendum!

Now say sorry to 'My Darling Janet'!

Dream on SoD.

And buy a calculator.

And the other half are pro-Remain but wished to stay loyal to their parties too, which adds half the Lab / Con votes to the Remain vote as well, leaving Remain 5% ahead, you numpty!

In fact, it is more likely that Lab / Con Brexiteers will have been disloyal because voting for a protest party like the Brexit Party is not so much disloyalty as actually voting for an opposition party like the Lib Dems and Change UK. So the likelihood is the residue left in the Lab / Con vote is Remain.

So we've now had two votes since the referendum: the general election which showed the peeps reluctance for a hard or No-deal Brexit, and this EU election which is a Remain victory.

Any Brexiteer claim of being "the will of people" is now two votes into the history books.

The Referendum is coming. And thank Gawd, at least it will be Brits who decide, and not Macron and Merkel.

SoD

SoD:

The Remain parties achieved 40.4%, and the Brexit parties 34.9%.

The only unequivocally "Remain Party" standing was CUK, which did miserably badly. Labour and Conservative, the Nats, Greens, and even Lib Dems stood on a wide platform of policies, and had a wide spectrum of support for EU membership.

I have to say I find it amazing how some believe they know how people who did not vote or voted for something which was equivocal (Labour anyone) actually would vote given a binary choice. This was blindingly obvious after the referendum, when Remainers decided that all those who didn’t vote counted as Remainers. I don’t believe that a future referendum would deliver much difference in terms of leve/remain but, having already voted Leave, then any future Referendum should be Deal/No Deal! Guido has a decent take on the stats but, as stated earlier, nobody really knows.

https://order-order.com/2019/05/27/bad-als-magical-numerical-thinking/

A fella can learn a lot about his own country by looking at events in another one. My re-education about socialism in America was greatly accelerated by looking at the attempts made in that direction in Britain and France, less so in Spain, although my Spanish is better than my French. The politics of Spain and Italy are more impenetrable. Go figure.

An American academic, Anthony Codevilla, has written a wonderful and concise book, in which he describes "the country party," in contention with the "government party." Their self chosen labels don't tell you very much. Republicans refer to "Government party" types as the deep state.

If I understand SoD correctly, he is mostly "Country Part" but believes that remaining in the EU is the more effective way to control and combat the "Government party." He's very smart, no doubt takes after his mother, so his reasoning is more or less impenetrable by the likes of me, but, as far as I am able to understand, he's um, what is zee word in English? oh. yes, wrong.

So, look at the cousins, even though you may not understand US so clearly, the experience will make you see your own situation all the better.

Thanks for that link Wiggers Friend.

Another Remainer using SoD’s statistical logic:

https://order-order.com/2019/05/27/347553/

With such an emphatic win for Remain parties Corbyn has already bricked his grundies and promised a new referendum and the Tory boys and girls queueing up for the career limiting role of next PM of the UK must surely now glean, even from the time sharing scheme they operate on that single brain cell they have between them, that Brexit is dead-ducked.

If the Lib-Dems, Change UK, Greens, and SNP form a coalition and carve up the UK constituencies so as to present a single Remain option, and, well, really, even if they don't, it's game over for you at the next general election or referendum, whichever.

The EU election result where the Remain vote beat the Brexit vote, and the last general election where Teflon's mantras "Brexit means Brexit" and "No deal is better than a bad deal" were given a thumbs down and her majority wiped out, mean it would be undemocratic for Brexit to happen now.

Macron and Brussels have held the centre, so they don't have to cut Blighty loose. They can tolerate a bunch of Brexit Party gobshites in Brussels while Blighty's pro-Remain majority settles the matter at home. So your NBF Macron ain't no more.

You're going to rue the day you shunned compromise, refused to slap Teflon's hand, and rejected the only Brexit on offer. It was your last chance.

And when that time comes, boooooooyyyyyyy am I going to remind you.

SoD

Alas, SoD, not a scenario I recognise!

In any event, if Boris takes over the Tories we'll be out of the EU by October!

Now here's a puzzle, and as always, it's Michael "The Bastard" Gove, of this manor, at the heart of it ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/michael-gove-to-pledge-free-citizenship-for-3m-eu-nationals

What can it mean? Allow 3 million natural born Remainers onto the voting register while claiming to be a Brexiteer?

Ah, but wait a minute. One, imagine the gratitude: An instant 3m votes for a Tory party lead by the Bastard. Two, imagine the privilege: Dual citizenship and therefore freedom of movement for the 3m but not for the rest of us. "We Love you" writ large. Three, imagine the synergy: 3m gig economy immigrants, the modern day Mayflower folks, natural born Tory Thatcherite voters.

Jesus Christ and Mother of God: Could the Bastard turn Fluffbun into a Brexiteer?!

By God this man does war honour.

SoD

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