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Thursday, 30 May 2019

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dem der Eyetalian Banks will be wot done it!

Fingers crossed. My view is that a collapse of the Euro is inevitable, but when is another matter.
And perhaps it would be an idea for us in lieu of electing protest parties to pressure the government to actually elect new politicians.

This is Ambrose "Cry Wolf" Evans-Pritchard we're talking here!

Salvini will bottle it, like he did last time on the budget.

SoD

You have to look really hard to find this story on the BBC - I wonder why that is??

This is brilliant news, and the quicker the crisis escalates, the better. Nothing like an economic war in Europe and the rise of ordinary people against their one-time masters as a backdrop to the Tories choosing their next leader. Think on, ladies and gentlemen, as you cast your votes!

“We are net contributors to the EU budget. We have a trade surplus and primary budget surplus. We don’t need anything from anybody.......

Yeah right.

Italy is not a country.

It's a group of cities loosely tied together by a common language.

The North has been a solvent "country", perhaps 30 years ago, but Rome & all parts South of that are a basket case. Joining the Euro was supposed to solve all ills ( & top up Italian Pols pension funds) but fundamentally the country is broke. Free to devalue it's own currency would be a temporary patch but won't be the answer...

A primary surplus means "only borrowing to pay off past debts" it's the creditors have a problem.
Net contributor means "we pay you, would you like us to stop?"
That's the important stuff. Whether they make money from agriculture,finance, industry or what doesn't matter so long as they do make money. A trade surplus implies little inward investment - not promising for the future. Compare the UK where the reverse is the case.
Standard solution for a bankrupt country like Italy or Greece as applied with success by the IMF to any non-Euro state is to default on at least part of the debt (easy if you're only borrowing to pay debts), devalue (easy if you introduce a new currency, and reform (that's the hard bit).
I have no idea whether Salvini can get reform done, but with preparation, which he has had time for, default and devalue are easy.

Ireland managed to escape AEP's supposed demand / debt "doom-loop" by just doing what the creditors demanded and EU rules required.

This isn't a difficult one.

SoD

Here's AEP's supposed "doom-loop" for Ireland (hopefully the Google chart will appear at the top when you click through) ...

https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-hmd-rev2&biw=360&bih=560&ei=vMjwXJy1Ju-Y1fAP3Z2GoAM&q=ireland+debt+as+percentage+of+gdp&oq=ireland+debt+as+percentage+of+gdp&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.12...0.0..1195...0.0..0.0.0.......0.h8w2CzBhUsw

See the debt to GDP rising rapidly after the credit crunch and financial crisis, then dropping away rapidly after EU austerity and reform is applied at the end? An upturned hockey stick.

Now what would Paddy-power have managed if their unpronounceable parliament had been on its own without EU oversight?

Back to plucking spuds out of the earth, I'd say (that's not rhyming slang to avoid a swear box fine Gaffer, btw)!

SoD

Here's Spain, Italy, and Greece ...

https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-hmd-rev2&biw=360&bih=560&ei=gMvwXJH2FuKX1fAPgJ6WwAM&q=spain+debt+as+percentage+of+gdp&oq=spain+debt+as+percentage+of+gdp&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.12..35i39.0.0..52123...0.0..0.448.553.0j1j4-1......0.iVzJ4sm1QXI

Flat-lining, and could do better.

But where dem doom-loops, AEP?!

For the sake of the Club-Medder peeps, I hope the EU keeps the rules pressure up and breaks their negligent nationalist pols.

Viva EU!

SoD

AEP's record of predicting crashes is rather profligate having predicted at least 30 of the last 2.

Having said that Italy is in pretty good shape to take on the EU at this moment. Salvini has bolstered his position in the polls at the expense of Di Maio who was always more dovish on the EU, and the realisation is dawning on more and more people that the Euro is a disaster for Italy.

So definitely reasons for optimism.

Or for pessimism if you are an EU-phile globalist Cuck.

"an EU-phile globalist Cuck."

You mean, a 'SoD'!

Remember that old joke from schooldays? How do you recognize an Italian tank? It has one forward and five reverse gears.

Well, when cold steel turns to hot air, not much changes ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget/italy-says-it-wont-seek-fight-with-eu-amid-talk-of-government-crisis-idUSKCN1T30BD

That grinding and grating sound you're hearing is the verbal equivalent of a Fiat military-grade transmission slipping every one of those five reverse gears, while Ambrose "Cry Wolf" Evans-Pritchard is nowhere to be seen on the subject (until the next time).

SoD

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