Whither India?

You will be much relieved to learn that this post of mine will be brief and to the point.  The reason is simple - I know next to nothing about India!  For me, if dear old 'Winnie' will forgive me, it remains "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma".  Not, I hasten to add, because it represents the sort of ominous, evil menace that was Soviet Russia and to which 'Winnie' was referring.  In fact, India is as open to inspection as any country on earth.  It is truly 'yuuuuuuuuge' and constantly bubbling with activities although I am not sure exactly what they are and where they are going.  What is important to me is India's sheer size not least because, situated as it is fairly close to China, I can't help feeling that "there may be troubles ahead"!

Of course, it lacks the disciplined power of the Chinese state but history indicates that the Indian people, 'zillions of them', are exceedingly proud and more than willing to fight for what they see as their rights.  An over-bearing China puffed with ambition might find India hard to swallow.  We, by which I mean 'the West', should do all we can to bolster India's strength.  I do hope 'The Donald' will recognise that and take a "softly, softly, catchee monkey" approach even though the Indian political caste are fairly reprehensible!  Dammit, they're no worse than the crooks in Chicago!

 

 

Comments

[Whitewall]

It used to be called the US Pacific Command until about a year ago.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2018/05/30/indo-pacom-it-is-pacific-command-gets-renamed/

DC is aware of the position of India. India chose poorly during the Cold War. Hopefully they are wiser now.

[David Duff]

I confess, Whiters, that I know next to nothing concerning the Indo-Pacific area let alone the individual states there-in. My guess is that because of the indigent corruption, with certain honourable exceptions, throughout the area any attempt to weld them into a team would be like herding chickens! I really must try and delve a little deeper into that region.

[Whitewall]

David, when you have put the history of Europe behind you, maybe you can tackle India? It's like a whole 'nother world according to a senior couple we know at our gym. They are always glad to go back to see family and always glad to return to the states.

[Glesga]

Whitewall, Donald Trump is reminding USA citizens that they can leave and not return if they wish. I reckon most will return, even the racist women of colour as they call themselves.

[Whitewall]

Jimmy, some of us have called our Congressmen and volunteered funds to help any of these Marxist miscreants leave the country to anywhere but here. Problem is, they won't leave. I sense a collision coming in the future.

[Bob]

I appreciate your baiting me, David, but crooks are crooks no matter their city, village, country, ethnicity or creed. I hope you're joking when you suggest Trump is capable of being subtle. He would either hire someone to catch the monkey then refuse to pay or go on TV and declare all monkeys rapists and communists.

[David Duff]

Bait you, Bob? Perish the thought! I had forgotten your Chicagoan antecedents -don't take it personally. As for Trump, he was subtle enough to send that mad quartet of Dem 'wimmin' into orbit with the merest twitter!

[Whitewall]

It appears Trump runs the Dem party from his Twitter account.

[Glesga]

Aye Bob Trump hit those women big style and he was right to do so. Can any Yank explain to me why the USA takes all the shit for the South American regimes that send their people towards the USA. Those regimes are members of the UN and should be held to account. There is a total silence from the UN. The USA is entitled to control its own borders.

[Bob]

David,

Subtle he was not.

Glesga,

Explaining how we got to where we are with the current batch of South American refugees would take a book involving many decades of history in several countries. Probably no single Yank could do it, though many would try with sweeping, idiotic generalizations.

[Glesga]

Bob, The USA are not responsible for the alleged failings of sophisticated rich advanced nations on their border. If those nations are not acting on behalf of their citizens then perhaps they should be expelled from the UN.

[Bob]

Glesga,

Economically, the most advanced country in South America is Brazil, and it's still considered an emerging nation. Others doing well are Argentina, Chile and Mexico, which are also emerging nations, not advanced nations. The only one that shares our border is Mexico. Many South and Central American countries are underdeveloped and/or politically unstable for a variety of reasons.

[JK]

Sorry sorry for my tardiness but I had a VA appointment and a meeting both down in Little Rock today and I've just made it back.

As it happens some of my 'Intel sources' have lately been on India with a general tend toward what may be shaping up as AQ looking toward the subcontinent - just hints for now but it bears watching.

Then from NightWatch:

"Security conditions have improved in Indian Kashmir. On 14 July, officials reported that stone-throwing incidents have decreased significantly from a high of over 2,600 in 2016 to barely a few dozen in the first half of 2019."

(There's a table of figures I can't reproduce but so far in 2019 40 "incidents" and 100 arrests compared to 2016's 2653 and 10,571 arresteds.)

"Comment: Stone-throwing incidents accompanied Indian counter-terrorism and security operations in Kashmir. Anti-Indian Kashmiris using cell phones would gather as a flash mob to throw stones at Indian forces to disrupt anti-militant operations."

"Anti-Indian sentiment surged in 2016 after security forces killed the militant gang leader Burhan Wani on 8 July 2016. Despite his youth, -- age 21 -- he was a terrorist group leader. Because of his youth he had a large following on social media. The reaction to his death incited the worst violence in Indian Kashmir since 2010."

"The large decline between 2018 and July 2019 began after Imran Khan became Pakistani Prime Minister in August 2018. Khan said he wanted better relations with India and seems to have demonstrated his sincerity by scaling back Pakistani encouragement and support for anti-Indian activism."

"The numbers of shootouts and encounters with terrorists also have declined. India is mounting fewer operations because the militants are less active. In June, Governor Satya Pal Malik said that a change is occurring in that recruitment of militants has decreased since Indian national elections and incidents of stone-throwing have almost stopped."

"On 24 June, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, the chairman of the highly influential Hurriyat Conference, a large political movement that wants independence from India, told the press he would welcome talks with the government in New Delhi. That was a first."

"We judge that Imran Khan, with Pakistani military backing, directed the cutback, including the absence of infiltration attempts from Pakistani Kashmir. Governor Malik said on 15 July that no terrorist infiltration operations have occurred in the past five months, which is unprecedented. The last serious militant attack was the Pulwama suicide attack in February that killed 40 paramilitary policemen."

"This is the longest lull in anti-Indian violence in at least three years. The improved security situation since Khan’s election establishes a strong correlation between the security situation in Indian Kashmir and the actions and orders of the Pakistani government. The linkage has never been so obvious."

"It also created conditions for India and Pakistan to open negotiations."

India/Pakistan

"Track II talks between Pakistan and India took place in Islamabad on 12 and 13 July."

"Indian press comment: Track II diplomacy is when non-governmental contacts and activities are held between citizens or groups of two countries in unofficial diplomatic efforts."

"These talks are being hosted by the Regional Peace Institute in Pakistan. Officials from the Pakistani Foreign Office, including Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood, participated in the two-day session."

"The second phase of talks will take place in New Delhi. Neither government has commented on the talks."

"Comment: Bilateral peace process talks were suspended in January 2016 after an attack on an army base in Indian Kashmir by infiltrators from Pakistan."

"The two countries have used the Track II channel to achieve a breakthrough in relations periodically since the early 1990s. They were used during the tenures of Pakistani President Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee to produce the Agra summit in 2001, that came close to achieving peace for Kashmir."

"The Indian position is that talks and terror cannot go together. True to that position, when terror declined, the Indians agreed to reactive the unofficial channel."

So. Not all bad then.

[David Duff]

Thank you, JK, as ever you are an education! I had - sort of - sensed that Kashmir had quietened somewhat. I wonder if the menace of China which is virulently anti-Muslim might have been a factor.

[JK]

" I wonder if the menace of China which is virulently anti-Muslim might have been a factor."

Perhaps. I might go so far as a Probably so.

You're aware of China's intentions toward its "Belt Road" project? Well the rail line from China through to Pakistan's port facilities at Gwadar (largely Chinese funded and built) are currently "partly functioning." There is though the one security problem emanating out of Afghanistan (that may be part of the reason for the concerns with AQ and AQ-types seeming to be refocusing its lens on the subcontinent generally - time will tell). Then there's Jiwani Pakistan, the Chinese are building a military base there.

Then there's the port building going on at Iran's Chahabar on the Gulf of Oman. That's being jointly funded by Iran, India, and (if you can believe it!) Afghanistan. Its very close to Jiwani.

And from this morning's NightWatch:

"Airspace restrictions lifted. Pakistan has fully reopened its airspace to civilian flights, nearly five months after it was closed following a standoff with India."

"Pakistan closed its airspace in February after India carried out an air strike against what it said was a terrorist training camp in Pakistani territory."

"In March, Pakistan partially opened its airspace - but not for flights into and out of India. Early on Tuesday, the 16th, it said conditions were back to normal."

"With immediate effect Pakistan airspace is open for all type of civil traffic on published ATS (Air Traffic Service) routes," according to a Notice to Airmen published on the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority's website."

"India's aviation ministry said there were no further restrictions on airspace in either country."

"Comment: This is another sign that the process of improving ties is gaining momentum. Rail and bus services were restored in March."

***

One last thing. Not to do with the subcontinent however - just want to avoid 'a Bob shout, Told you the Norks were unreliable/unpredictable!' Expect a Norkie weapons test of some sort; probably some sort of missile but a multi-stage rocket can't be ruled out. The proximate reason is the ROK and the US looks like, will resume soon a joint interoperability of military forces test (wargame). Those sorts of things tend to rile the DPRK.

[JK]

David,

https://audioboom.com/posts/7319279-notes-on-keeping-the-peace-in-east-asia-gordongchang-thedailybeast

I sense your interest has more to do with China than India.

Figure that'un to be more up your alley.