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Friday, 02 August 2019

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This election shows the utter contempt the Tories have for the voters. Their candidate was convicted of cheating on his expenses but they still selected him. I can see a general election coming which results in a Lab-Libdem-SNP remainer government.

"given the legal impossibility of Article 50 being overturned"

Eh?

If a Remainer coalition wins the election it can reverse Article 50 even without another referendum to back it up.

Ref the election I say bring it on too. The ERG, BP and BoJo will fracture the Brexit vote. Even if the Tories somehow manage to gain a slim majority, ERG and Remainer Tories will split the HMG vote in parliament again.

And likewise, should a Remainer Coalition (or more accurately a Soft Brexit / Remainer Coalition) win it will face similar issues trying to do a Soft Brexit - Norgie ++ or whatever: No majority in parliament for the deliverables of whatever faction of Soft Brexit negotiates with the EU.

The only option for any coalition will be to put it to the people in a third referendum: No Deal, May's Deal, Remain - but will that even go through parliament with the slim majorities of either of these two coalitions?

BoJo's false hope is to put no legislation through parliament right through and past the Halloween deadline and let No Deal happen by default. But without legislation he can't put in place the, errr, legislation for all the changes needed for Brexit - free ports, tariffs, quotas, renegotiated trade deals, etc. Any bills in parliament will have a Remainer amendment tagged onto them asking for an extension with a promise to keep paying the EU. And like the EU are going to say "No" if an extension with wonga is asked for.

The Remain / Soft Brexit hope is not a falsie: Bump off BoJo with a vote of no confidence and secure an election, request another extension from the EU on a promise of a third referendum and wonga, try to implement and win the referendum for Remain. Even if the referendum will not get through parliament, just keep extending the deadline and paying the EU. They won't mind.

SoD

Oh, and isn't it funny how you spot the maths that points to a Brexit majority in the factional tot-up in the by-election, but not in the EU election result a month or two back when it pointed to a Remain majority!

Maths suddenly your strong point!

SoD

I opened the comments wondering how long SoD’s contribution would be. Not disappointed; it was YUGE.

Assuming Boris is serious about going for a no-deal Brexit as his priority he can't now be stopped.
A vote of no confidence straight after the recall of Parliament, followed by another a fortnight later as required under the FTPA would result in a General election on 31 October- too late to alter things even if Boris loses. And it would suspend Parliament thus removing any opportunity for that august body to alter or reverse the legislation it has passed, legislation the PM would be bound to follow.
And it is perfectly possible that Boris would win the resultant election especially if he forms an agreement with the Brexit party, or even without one should we have left before close of polls.
That is why the lib-dems were so upset with Corbyn's refusal to move a vote of no confidence before recess- it makes the timetable impossible

Crikey imagine voting Lib Dem. Surely there is a cure for it.

Yes, Uncle, it's called 'a brain transplant'!

House of Commons is back on Tuesday September 3rd ...

https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/

If a vote of no confidence is called and lost by HMG on that day, then 14 days later there's the confirmation vote, Tuesday September 17th. Assuming that's lost by HMG then an election is called which can be soonest 25 days. That takes us to Saturday 12th October, or rather Monday 14th October.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

The EU extension times out Thursday 31st October. So there's 2 weeks buffer zone for delays and shenanigans along the way.

And one more thing: The new EU Commission doesn't take office until 1st November. But I'm sure Mr Juncker will step up to the breach - if we can find him in whichever Brussels bar he's sojourning.

It's going to be a damn close run thing, I grant you.

SoD

Loz, Blucher and the Prussians will arrive at the last minute to save us.

And the Prince of Orange - your fave, eh!

Sorry Jimmy, I'm afraid this one's gonna go down like a shit sandwich ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121?mode=amp

A top o' the morning to yez!

SoD

Aside from that, I think you're onto something worth watching.

Mutti.

The air is heavy with plotting this summer, isn't it, cut it with a knife?

SoD

Loz, Fintan the tool was dragged out by the BBC Newsnight anti brexit chanel last week. He is a motormouth paddy gob shite. The end result is Brexit. And William 111 renounced the so called God given right to monarchy and Britain moved on. The Prince of Orange supported the Catholic monasteries and religious liberty. So Loz stop licking EU erses.

Sorry Jimmy.

But while we're on the subject of orange, here's BoJo's one and only NBF telling Blighty how the yuuge new US/UK deal is gonna be ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/02/tax-tech-giants-will-rule-us-trade-deal-us-warns-britain2/

Blighty must drop its tax on the US tech giants or no deal.

So much for "Take back control", eh?

And there's a reality check of a comment if ever I saw one ...

One figure in a US business body 
being kept abreast with talks doubted the quality of the UK’s negotiators. “They have not done trade deal negotiations for 46 years,” the source said, referring to the date Britain joined the European Economic Community. “I don’t really know if they can do it. This is a new game for them.”

Only 70 more trade deals to go before we equal the ones we had when in the EU.

Rather than 10 free-ports dotted around Blighty why doesn't Boris turn the whole country into a free-port? Singapore of the North Atlantic. "We don't need no stinkin' negotiators" for that.

Now, as I have always said, that would be something.

Or, if laissez-faire ain't BoJo's thing, why not let everyone else set their tariffs and then just reciprocate exactly. No stinkin' negotiators needed for that one either. And importantly, instead of dumping the take into the blackhole of the Exchequer, use it to offset completely the tariffs raised by Johnny Foreigner. Exporter sends JF's tax bill to HMG, HMG pays bill with import tariff revenue. Since we import more than export, that would completely neutralise all damage to Blighty's exporters, and leave a surplus.

SoD

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