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Monday, 02 September 2019


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Different target

The left in the western world have a quite simple problem - they are sore losers. We have one of those on here.

"And as far as I am concerned, it cannot happen quickly enough!"

I could tolerate a short delay if it were put to good use. A pact with TBP would be more than welcome. Let the Labour heartlands defect to Nigel, and the previously safe complacent Tory vermin face justice at the hands of their own.

"Just pause and imagine how the soppingly wet Mrs. May would have coped!"

What? That woman had more balls and tenacity than we've seen since the iron lady. Who else coulda or woulda put up with the shit she did for two and a half years?

If BoJo and Cummings had two pairs between them they'd have prorogued for the whole period, filled any Bercow reconvening by getting Her Maj to create new bank holidays, and worst case filibustered the Lords to stop parliament from blocking No Deal. All would have been technically constitutional.

Instead did they just bottle it and give the Remainers one last chance to step up to the plate?!

Or are they playing the odds? Fifty fifty they win tomorrow, but if they lose then they live to fight another day - fifty fifty they win the ensuing election. Tossing a coin twice and only needing one heads gives them 75% chance of getting No Deal Brexit over the line.

However if the Remainers lose tomorrow it's game over for them, BoJo and Cummings can get No Deal over the line with no election. And even if the Remainers win tomorrow they still have to win the election too or it's game over stopping Brexit with Tory victory. Tossing a coin twice and needing heads both times: 25% chance.

Well, the battle lines are drawn up, and in your favour methinks. Like Agincourt you mentioned last week, we'll see if tactics can overcome odds.

Let battle commence!


If ever anyone doubted the true extent & depth of remainiac dementia so prevalent in the metromeeja bubble, take a gander at this

#clownworld is upon us

"The absolute inability of the urban liberal bourgeoisie to come to terms with any significant political defeat is the phenomenon I’m dying to see analyzed by serious scholars. (I believe the answer is ultimately theological)". A.V.

A lot of people have underestimated Boris assigning him to the category of "not to be taken seriously". Big mistake.

From afar the tactics are fascinating.

Whitewall, the elites are still in shock since the Brexit vote and the Trump election but have been fighting a rearguard action. They still have many friends in the media and those who have benefitted from the former regimes. They will go down screaming.

Interesting one is if the rebels win the No Deal blocker extension today, BoJo tries to call an election, but then parliament doesn't give him the 2/3's majority required to have the election!

Then to obey the law of the land, BoJo will have to go to Brussels and ask for an extension and can't dodge it by calling an election! A zombie PM re-animated by parliament!

A bit like Her Maj, theoretically the sovereign but actually animated by the government - oops, no, actually she's animated by parliament now too of course!

And there's the rub: if BoJo won't go to Brussels then parliament will ask her. Well Ma'am, you might have wondered why anyone wanted the job of PM but now it is your job to do it!

There is no Game of Thrones narrative as implausible as this, reality trump's fiction: The army of the dead leading the country but reanimated by the resistance's puppet-mastery!

If he and Her Maj both refuse to go cap in hand to Brussels, then the EU can unilaterally extend the deadline in practice - no tariffs, border checks, etc. - albeit not by shaking BoJo's or Her Maj's hand.

Blighty Remains - hoorah!!!

By George and all the Saints, what a saga! Beyond awesome.


"BoJo will have to go to Brussels"

Is that so? The House of Commons has voted down everything. That is the problem. Boris just sits tight till November 1st. As to the Queen, she hasn't survived this long by doing silly things. Only the Prime Minister has the right to see her for a chat.

If the PM doesn't get the backing from the commons for an election then there are a couple of other things that could happen...
1 - Johnson calls a vote of no confidence in himself (which feels unlikely)
2 - The government puts forward a one (ish) line bill saying that despite the FTPA the date of the next general election is X...

The issue with 2 is that it could be amended as could interestingly the bill that is planned to be introduced tomorrow.

Fascinating stuff and I'm loving watching it.

Or - Boris goes to Brussels and vetoes the extension?

One heads in my favour, eh Gaffer!

Another toss of the coin tomorrow.

And then the election toss of the coin.

And did I see that Brexiteer Labour MP's are trying to get Teflon Theresa's deal back infront of parliament in an amendment tomorrow?! If you want any Brexit at all it's starting to look like you'd better shake her cold, dead hand, mouldering away as it is in the no man's land of the central position on the field of glory, after all!

Mwah ha ha (evil laugh)!


Looks like two major banks would rather see a Jezza lead, Remain, Lib-Lab pact in power than a Tory No Deal Brexit ...

They cite the EU single market rules and regs and the Lib Dems as being sufficient constraints on Jezza's wilder Socialist desires, and remark that whatever he does can be undone, unlike No Deal Brexit.

Now where did you hear that tack first? I have instructed Messer's Sue Grabbit and Runne ...

Jezza is for Xmas, No Deal is forever.


By removing No Deal from the table, if that happens, then it isn't just No Deal out for the count but all deals that Brexiteers would prefer over May's deal.

Because from the EU's point of view nothing is better than Remain and anything better than May's deal (from an EU perspective) is ok by them too - and worse from a Brexiteer perspective (Norway++ for example).

So other than full-on Remain, the only other options are May's deal, anything in between May's deal and Remain (Norway++ for example), and Remain itself.

The No Deal threat did its job in extracting May's deal from Brussels, but now it's gone the "best Brexiteer ratchet" is locked on May's deal not No Deal anymore.

So if this goes to a Lib-Lab coalition in the election the EU will be happy to enter lengthy discussions where the scope is May's deal to Remain because all points within are acceptable to them.

In fact there wouldn't need to be discussions at all since the EU is happy with all possible outcomes within the now constrained range.

It'd just be up to Blighty to make its mind up within the new narrower range.


Or Boris and 'Nige' could win big in the coming election with Labour and the il-Lib-non-Dems melting in the fury of a frustrated electorate in which case - what is the French/German for 'show me the exit'!

That's true Gaffer, the final "roll of the dice" for both of us!

But then again, Brexit and Remain is rather like two opposing Napoleonic formations that have lost their impetus standing at 20 paces shouting and screaming at each other. Each one out of ammo, clogged muskets so no musket volleys, and too much disorder and too many dead officers to do the shoulder-to-shoulder cold steel charge to finish the other off. They often stood like that for hours until something else changed on the battlefield - the arrival of support, night, other.

I could forsee a Lib-Lab coalition unable to agree which colour of the Remainer rainbow they want too, spread out over the next 2 years: Norway? Norway+? Norway-? Norway--? Norway++? Full-on Remain? None of it will get through parliament for the same reasons the rainbow factions of Brexiteers failed to so likewise! All they will agree on is to extend for another 3 months - and the EU will say "OK, as long as you keep paying"!

It might take a global recession / depression / some Trump freakshow act / EU breaks up / other battlefield change, that breaks the deadlock and brings support to one or other side - or night falls across the West and it doesn't matter anymore.

Phew what a scorcher! I'm going down the wargames club Friday and all day Saturday to chill out.


Looks like your NBF Cummings is a chip off yours truly's old block ...

"The fact that you have at the heart of No 10 as the PM's senior advisor an unelected, foul-mouthed oaf throwing his weight around is completely unacceptable," he told the BBC.

No disapproval or airbrushing of his rants though, presumably?!


By George and all the Saints, now that's a battle schedule if ever there was one ...



Some goodly number David of folks from parts all over, it would appear, are cheering you on or perhaps, not cheering your posterity.

Democracy stuff

3 heads in a row against you Gaffer.

I normally blame the dice when this sort of thing happens to me down the wargames club.


4 heads in a row against you Gaffer!

Blimey, might be worth not bothering with a lotto ticket this weekend.


Loz, the Government and opposition voted for an EU referendum. The opposition who now oppose the result are shittin themselves to have a General Election.

The opposition wants an election. But they want No Deal off the table first.

With No Deal off the table a Lib-Lab Pact can approach the EU with May's Deal as the threat in place of No Deal and negotiate a Norway--/-/+/++ deal.

Since anything more on the Remain side of May's Deal is acceptable the negotiations should go smoothly, with one enormous exception: The factions of the Lib-Lab Pact are as divided on the particulars of a soft Brexit east of May's deal as the Brexiteers were on a hard Brexit west of May's deal. So we're in for another 2-3 years of factional haggling between Lab, Lib, Green, and SNP.

The Tories like to call themselves a "broad church", so all the factions are inside. Even after expelling the 21 the ERG and BoJo's factions still exist and are at odds with each other.

The soft Brexit coalition is intrinsically politically factional because it is multiple political parties, plus the Labour party is as internally factional as the Tories.

So sit back and enjoy the next 2-3 years while the soft Brexiteers make a worse cock-and-bollocks of presenting a coherent united position to Brussels than anything your mob managed in the last 2-3 years!


Some tasty morsels from the Gaffer's post ...

The Boris/Cummings alliance is working a treat.


The Boris/Cummings alliance has obviously worked exceedingly hard ... I see signs of real intelligence applied

Geniuses, Albert eat your heart out.

In the meantime the equally fearsome Boris/Cummings political machine has started its engine and is ready to advance

Well, apart from stalling four times, that is.

The biggest mistake the BoJo/Cummings clown act has made is ejecting the 21 moderate Tory MP"s and grandees. The Tory party has just lost a chunk of moderate Tory voters to the Lib-Dems who were umming and aahing but would have stayed loyal. And BoJo/Cummings hasn't gained any votes from the Brexit Party that weren't already back in the Tory fold due to the harsh No Deal proroguing stance anyway.

A Lib-Lab Pact lead by Jezza it is. Back to the 1970's, as I said it would be three years ago.

I'll have to dig my old Pink Floyd albums out.


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