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Tuesday, 08 October 2019

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Hear, hear Gaffer.

And what with that bitch killing a Brit kid, doing a runner, and claiming diplomatic immunity, BoJo is going to struggle to justify bromancing the Don to the Brit peeps should we end up living "life on the outside".

We will be quite literally "Billy-Britain-no-mates".

Maybe Ping-a-Ling and Vlad might be worth a punt and wave a cheery two fingers at the US and EU?

SoD

"Trust in America just dropped close to zero"

If you were the American President, who would you trust? The Muslims with their endless wars? The Europeans who won't pay for their own defence? The CIA who are busily trying to unseat you? The corrupt democrats? Perhaps President Trump is about to carry out another of his campaign pledges - to extract the US from the endless expenditure of American blood and treasure in other people's wars. If only our government would do the same.

If not now, when? When an independent Kurdistan is recognised perhaps. The Kurds have after all been our only allies in the region. Do we hasten that by going to war with Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran? And if so will the result be prettier than Iraq?
America no longer needs oil from the region, it is doubtful whether Erdogan's Turkey even counts as an ally, Iraq was a disaster, Syria is a mess, Iran is clearly an enemy but would cost a lot to defeat.
Either we colonise the area, at vast expense of blood and treasure or we get out. In between just prolongs the agony

Like Pat said, "when". We have about a thousand soldiers there. The tribal and ethnic make up of the region will not change no matter how long we stay. Those thousands of ISIS fighters being held by the Kurds belong to many other countries. In the Muslim world, if left to their own devices, they would be killed off and not missed. Other countries need to repatriate the captured fighters that belong to them. The US isn't responsible for them.

SoD,
This may well be written for you. The author 'Sarah' is a native of Portugal and is married and lives here. Rough Music:

https://accordingtohoyt.com/2019/10/07/rough-music/

Just to re-emphasise, I am not suggesting that Trump's decision was wrong, merely that his execution of it was dumb in that it caused unnecessary collateral damage amongst 'allies'!

David, that is bad form on his part, but that's Trump. If he had given a timetable, then he would be accused of doing an 'Obama' by letting the bad guys no when and where. Some of our 'allies' of the moment have members of their respective intel agencies working with some members of our intel agencies to undermine Trump all the way back to 2015. I suspect Donald is not in a get along mood.

We are going to find out who and whom in very short order. Thus the 3 ring circus in DC.

https://buchanan.org/blog/is-trump-at-last-ending-our-endless-wars-137583

Will hell be freezing over?

Bob?

The US simply has no skill in foreign relations, military, diplomatic and everything in between. It just fumbles and bumbles around, failing to be world policeman or self-interest-only player, as evidenced by the Obama and Trump administrations respectively. Rocketman, Ping-a-Ling, the Mad Mullahs, Vlad, and the Euros have all run rings around the US.

Might be best from the US's perspective if she did pull back from everything. Just refuse to participate.

That was my only prescription for Brexit: just become the Singapore / Switzerland of the North Atlantic. Zero tariff, multi-market rules and regs (so no so called "trade deals", whatever they are supposed to be), and let the rest of the world knock seven shades of shit out of itself while taxing its citizens to penury to produce and supply subsidized goods and services. Maybe try to roll a few grenades to keep any "hairy-on-hairy" party punch-ups rolling, but otherwise leave rest-of-world to its own devices.

Be a good pattern for the US too: Singapore of the West Atlantic. Boy you'd make some money if you went zero tariff, multi-market rules and regs with the hard core of the free world ...

UK
EU
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
Japan
South Korea
Israel
Singapore

... and let the dollar float.

Unlike Blighty who would never in a million years do such a thing, the US is about the only place in the world that might.

SoD

Here's yet another incompetence from Her Maj's public sector ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49973318

The SOTP (Sex Offender Treatment Program) that actually increased re-offending from 8% to 10% from the 1990's to 2017! Nearly three decades of uninterrupted paedophile encouragement from the people supposed to be responsible for discouragement! Jeez.

It really is time to stop the UK and US state's from trying to do anything at all, isn't it?

SoD

Oh, forgot to mention, but needless to say really: as per usual, no minister resigned and no-one was sacked.

SoD

Sure. The government can always be criticized, so let's just get rid of it. Power abhors a vacuum, but, really, the Rooskies and Chinese can be trusted not to rush in, if not our own home-grown Yahoos. The magical free market, which is the real God, will make it all work out on autopilot. Christ.

You talkin' to me Bob?

You remember Turkey shooting down that Su-24 very near Idlib (Syria) back near the end of 2015? Our EU "allies" going apeshit over NATO's Article 5 possibly getting invoked? Us and the Brits 'peeps' saying finally! "Whoa you politicians how's Libya y'all promised'd be 'peaced and honeyed' after y'all got done with that?"

Earlier that same year (before the Iranians got into the mix) the Houthis of Yemen "getting restless" and the previous administration muttering something about "Leading from behind" which, was the same damned thing they'd muttered just before Hillary's "We went, he went" (skewered up the ass by bayonet wielding peaceful would be democracy loving Freedom Fighters in the hour or so it took before an individual (probably rewarded with beheading for his fucking up the fun) put the eight AK-47 rounds through his noggin?

The Syrian "Redlines"?

My personal favorite where Trump's concerned now being Obama refusing to "arm the Ukrainians because that might piss off the Russians"? (Interesting don't you find Bob, Obama's not imposing sanctions against the Russians until after Hillary got her ass handed to her?)

Of course Bob you'll be retorting "JK, your not mentioning anything whatsoever where the Chinese are concerned means ...!"

Couple single syllables about that Bob.

Hong Kong.

JK,

I doubt Hong Kong can protect us from the Chinese government as well as our government can, even now. As far as the Kurds are concerned, you might read how they feel about recent events and get some facts straight:

https://thekurdishproject.org/kurds-face-american-abandonment/

"I doubt Hong Kong can protect us from the Chinese government as well as our government can, even now."

Bob "us" pay the rent there? Ever?

"Us" responsible for all George III (or whichever George)...?

"The Kurdish Project" huh Bob.

Like the Iraq Project, the Afghanistan Project Bob?

No more "Go tell it to the Spartans" Bob?

Which service Bob will you and Lindsey Graham be enlisting first thing tomorrow morning in, Army or Marine infantry?

Nevermind Bob I know your service group, of course, will be one of those which keeps you comfortably in Indiana.

"Ballsy Bob" we can expect? The Kurds sort of like the French Foreign Legion of yore are always accepting of volunteers.

Yeah right Bob.

I'm with JK.

I admire your indefatigability, as someone famously said in a not altogether unconnected context, Bob.

But sometimes it's time to end the sketch and say, "And now for something completely different".

As the Goons once said, "Why are you bashing your head against that wall?". Answer, "Because it's so nice when I stop".

SoD

Eh by gum lad, 'ave a pint an' one oop yow snotter! ...

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/17956977.chorley-mp-lindsay-hoyle-claims-drink-drugs-problem-parliament/

So Westminster's got a drink and drugs problem.

Maybe that's why they've managed to do less in the last 45 years in spite of having 70% less to do (because Brussels does the 70%), and what little they have done has been shite.

Mind you, if they're zonked out doing nada it's probably less harm done, mmm, maybe best leave them as is?

SoD

Crikey, they're a rum bunch oop North aren't they?!

In my day the worst ticking off state school parents got was a request to keep school uniform standards up - ties straight, clean shoes, etc.

But now the formal request parents at state infants schools ooop North get is, "Please don't send the little nippers in smelling of cannabis" ...

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/17956001.blackburn-infants-going-school-smelling-cannabis/

Mind you, at least the nippers and most MP's know how to smoke a joint or snort a line competently, with one exception ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SISt4znN2tQ

Ah well, perhaps I must admit state school education has one up on Eton and private schools when it comes to the subject of recreational drug use? State 1, Free Market 0, eh Bob?

SoD

I don't get your logic, SoD. In the US the street drug market is probably closer to being an actual free market than most. It's "regulated" only by criminal law, and in most places the laws are enforced selectively if at all. I'm fairly sure GB operates the same way.

JK and SoD,

I'm against regime change wars too and think Trump's instincts aren't wrong. However, the way he was talked into taking action by Erdogan is not a good look, and the way he executed the order was chaotic. And by the way, the US has troops stationed in 150 countries around the world.

USA bad when going to war. USA bad when not going to war. Trump is not subtle in his dealings with others but why should he be.

We just keep getting farther down the rabbit hole. Trump defended the pullout by saying, "They didn't help us in the Second World War, they didn't help us with Normandy ..."

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-abandoning-kurds-syria-didnt-help-during-wwii-allies-2019-10

And it turns out Erdogan is a long time Trump business associate and there are not 1 but 2 Trump Towers in Istanbul.

But wait! There's more:

"President Trump responded on Wednesday to bipartisan condemnation of his decision to move U.S. troops out of northern Syria, telling reporters that Turkey and the Kurds have "hated each other for hundreds of years," and that if the ISIS prisoners that are currently being held by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces escape, "they will be escaping to Europe."


https://www.axios.com/trump-isis-escapees-syria-turkey-kurds-a74c803c-6b5b-4006-af45-6ff750b29a68.html

So he thinks it's OK then?

Bob,

The Don knows Erdogan will tap up Merkel for 10,000 Euros per annum per IS swinging dick to keep them in that border area. Or else Erd will open the floodgates and let them all cross into the Balkans and get boats across the Med to Greece and Italy. And Merkel knows that'll be a lot cheaper than trialling them in the Fatherland. Those IS swinging dicks are worth a lot to Erd, probably only cost 5,000 Euros each to keep them in that shithole buffer zone, for a 100% mark-up.

The Euros haven't paid their share for handling IS so it's a fair cop guv.

Best thing the Kurds could do is step away from that border area with all their people and let the IS prisoners loose into it for Erd to round up.

That might actually put pressure on the Kurds and Erd to settle something. Both sides will have buffer borders with the other from which they launch attacks on the other. Unlike the status quo where the Kurds had no reason to stop fighting because Erd had no effective come back to their "terrorism". But now for every outrage the Kurds let loose in Turkey, Erd will send an IS suicide bomber or two into Kurdland from the new border area.

Also, depends if Assad, Vlad, and the Mad Mullahs fancy joining the party and finishing the Kurds off. The Don might not be so happy about that, and the Israelis even less so. If the US abandons the Al Tanf base as well that allows Iran to link up with Syria then Israel will surely have to get involved.

"Good game, good game!" as old Brucie Forsythe used to say.

SoD

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-turkey-launches-ground-invasion-shaked-calls-for-kurdish-state/

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/08/world/middleeast/israel-us-syria-kurds.html

The Israelis need to get some Spike ATGM's and ELTA mystery missile MANPADS to the Kurds PDFQ. Bugger selling them to Uncle Sam, there are more important customers!

That'll take us right to the logical end game of the Don's withdrawal of the US from the role of world policeman: The dissolution of NATO.

Because when Israel goes to war, albeit by proxy, to defend their "buffer friends" (buffer against the Iran / Syria linkup) the Kurds against Turkey, Israel is at war with NATO.

Who's side is the Don gonna come down on in that situation then? Israel of course, from a distance.

And who in NATO would want to defend Turkey, the Islamist harbourer of IS? Well most of the EU members of NATO because they don't want Erd to let the IS prisoners loose into Europe.

So that will be the end of the last shreds of NATO unity.

The world needs to strategize for "Life after Uncle Sam" PDFQ. "Sauve qui peut" is quite a good one.

SoD

SoD,

All interesting theory, but only a guess as to what's in play. We Yanks, at least those of us who don't live inside the right wing information bubble, are used to the fact that Trump acts on impulse and is nearly completely ignorant of history and politics on every level above campaigning, and also that he's forced out anyone who might steer him in any direction he doesn't personally like.

I'm beginning to agree that the US has lost credibility we might never get back. This could be the end the post-WWII era and some of its alignments. On the bright side, it will also probably end the (American) Libertarian argument that countries are businesses that should be run by business people, which, if you give it some thought, is synonymous with oligarchy.

Dirty Erdy addresses the Kaiserine, "Shadduppayaface, Beee-atch!" ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/erdogan-syria-turkey-kurds-europe-refugees-invasion-sdf-latest-middle-east-a9150271.html%3famp

Now if you Brexiteers even had half a braincell between you to use on a timesharing scheme, you might have noticed a VERY sizeable piece of ammo just got dumped on the field of glory for your replenishment ready for the coming election and referendum campaigns.

Something like this ...

"You thought Turkey joining the EU was bad? Ok we porkie pied that one, but this is for real: Dirty Erdy's about to release 3.6 million IS and migrant folks into the EU freedom of movement zone. How dya feel about sticking around in the EU now then?"

Dom Cummings eat your heart out. No need to thank me, btw. Looks like the ammo fell off the Don's wagon as he was heading for the rear echelon for some R&R to help you out with your No Deal Brexit ...

SoD

At least the US probably won't be going down alone:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/isis-beatles-death-penalty-torture-fighters-usa-justice-system-trial-a8466441.html

"On the bright side, it will also probably end the (American) Libertarian argument that countries are businesses that should be run by business people, which, if you give it some thought, is synonymous with oligarchy."

I'm not sure which Yank Libertarian said that, Bob, but they've got the wrong end of the stick.

Where in the constitution does it say the state should be run like a business? It says the state should facilitate business while keeping its own hands off. No mercantilism - it's the law!

I just wonder if the Don is ten steps ahead of everyone in all this?

First the Ukie quid-pro-quo thing. Has he elaborately laid that minefield knowing there's no quid-pro-quo smoking gun? The houses won't go for connecting two unconnected dialogues. And as for asking foreigners to investigate corruption including Yank corruption would it have sounded better if he said "Investigate corruption but please avoid any Yanks you find"! How does that sound?! And the distraction of Libtard energies is already enormous, as it was with the Rooskie entanglement. You've walked into the same minefield again, Bob! What was it Dubya fumbled his words with? "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."

Second is the Kurd thing. Pull out, go back in. He's done it once already. It's the wrestler's pull then push tactic, right up Vlad's strasse. Keeps the bright ones guessing and the impetuous ones overreaching. Dirty Erdy might be just about to run into a brickwall and get a very bloody nose! And if out of spite Dirty Erdy releases those 3.6 million IS and migrants peeps, the Don gets his BoJo bromance back on track into the bargain (see the Brexit ammo connection above)!

And one thing Dirty Erdy might need to watch out for: all those tanks of his are Jerry Leopard II's. Now if the Kaiserine hasn't got a fuse-pulling piece of firmware embedded in them just waiting for a wake-up call, shame on her. We already know IS made easy prey of 'em ...


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5332247/amp/The-4million-German-tank-embarrassed-Syria.html

... even with the main gun and transmission switched on! And if the Don has left another little ammo package on the field of glory, maybe a stash of Javelins for the Kurds, Dirty Erdy is toast!

The Brexit saga's sure got some competition!

SoD

Oh, and the coup de grace, how could I forget!

With Dirty Erdy's Leopards smouldering in junk heaps all over the Northern end of the new Kurdish Republic and Kurdish bombs going off the length and breadth of Southern Turkey, who's he gonna call to call the dogs off? Who will be the only one the Kurds will listen to for suckerpunching Dirty Erdy for them?

And when the Don receives that call, what will the price be?

"Send the S400's back and go Patriot, Douchbag"

Hahaha! Oh Loki, let it be so!

SoD

SoD,

The idea everything done in America is dictated by the Constitution is a bit too cute. "The business of America is business" is a slogan with a long history here that's been attributed to many people, almost exclusively (wealthy) businessmen and Republican/Libertarians:

https://www.northeastern.edu/sei/2017/02/the-business-of-america-is-business/

And SoD,

To add a little context, the US now has one of the most unfair distributions of wealth in the world; near banana republic status. There's much in our economy, most notably wages and health care, that are drastically dysfunctional. Ironically, those are reasons Trump is president. You should apply as an advisor/apologist.

Here's the article the Don read, reference his "The Kurds weren't with us in Normandy ..." comment, according to the Daily Beast ...

https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2019/10/08/critics-aghast-as-trump-keeps-word-about-no-more-wars-n2554328

I wonder if Schlichter would be alright defending the Kurds if they had been at Normandy or Inchon or Khe Sanh or Kandahar?

He keeps asking everyone how many US body-bags would it be worth filling to defend the Normandy-absentist Kurds. But how many US body-bags would it be worth filling if the Kurds had been there and the other places?

Being a Brit under Uncle Sam's protective umbrella, it's a fair question to ask. We were at some of those places. How many for us, eh, Unc? Are we on a promise or not? And if so, how big a promise?

And strange, the great captains of history never worried too much about who had been with them at Waterloo during WWII, with them in the 1st coalition of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars during the 2nd - 8th coalitions, etc. The Saxons didn't even worry about it during the course of the battle of Leipzig itself and switched sides half way through! These guys all worried about the events of the day, the ground being fought over politically and militarily there and then, not 20 minutes to 2 centuries before.

Trump's "Alliances are easy" attitude doesn't square with this "Stand by the heroes of yesteryear" attitude. Someone's telling porkies.

Or Trump's using the wrestler's push-pull strategy as I described, seems more plausible. As this geezer said, "Trump has betrayed the Kurds 8 times" ...

https://theintercept.com/2019/10/07/kurds-syria-turkey-trump-betrayal/

So that means Trump has also supported them 7-8 times in between and upfront depending on whether his first act was betrayal or support. If that ain't a wrestler's push-pull I don't know what is.

SoD

Two good 'uns, first references the second ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2019/10/11/some-hard-truths-about-turkeys-invasion-of-the-syrian-kurds/amp/

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-just-opened-the-way-for-turkey-to-invade-syriaand-isis-to-make-a-big-comeback?ref=scroll

There is such an opportunity for a US, Kurd, Israeli, Arab to carve a bone shaped territory out of the ME that knocks Turkey out of NATO (a good thing), obliges the Euros to step up to the plate and bang shut the gates of Vienna (where's King John III Sobieski when you need him?Instead we get "We can manage" Kaiserine Angela!), creates a balance of power that might bring a frozen war status to the ME, if not a peace.

I've said it before: that corridor of land that joins Israel at the Golan heights to Kurdland at the Euphrates, runs along the border with Jordan, and cuts the highways from Tehrain to Damascus (Al Tanf and the other two).

A suckerpunch on Dirty Erdy would be a good start to shore-up the North East end of the bone. An armoured punch from Israel along the corridor to join the Southern end of the bone (Israel) with the North. A proper Blitzkrieg, dropping off troops along the way to face off Assad and Vlad, which in turn would reduce the pressure those two could apply to the Kurds should they wish to get involved there. Like operation Market Garden.

After turning so many stones, long term and short term, we finally know who our friends are in the ME ...

Kurdland
Israel
Saudi Arabia

They might be a bunch of bastards, but at least they are our bastards.

SoD

SoD,

That's all very imaginative. The Western powers have been playing the Kurds for a long time. Once, for a short time after WWI, they even had a homeland. Sort of:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_S%C3%A8vres#Kurdistan

The Kurds are convenient tools for Western realpolitik. They can be supported and ignored as circumstances dictate. The question here is whether Trump is following the history or just acting in his own financial interest. We might not know for a while.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/10/turkey-and-the-kurds-its-more-complicated-than-you-think/

SoD, you need to re-study your geography.

And Bob, you might remember the SOFA (GW Bush era) signed by the authorized representatives of both the US (Ambassador Ryan Crocker) and the newly "democratized and duly elected government of the sovereign nation of Iraq" established a Kurdish Autonomous Zone.

That that Kurdish Autonomous Zone was nowhere near an imaginary "Golan heights to Kurdland at the Euphrates" should put paid to our (US) obligation[s] to the Kurds.

Bob, JK,

If your aim is to defeat the Islamists, Assad, the Mad Mullahs, and Vlad then you need a team with zeal and funding in the ME to be a winner.

The Kurds have zeal. Think of how much territory IS took with that one ingredient. Compare Iranian zeal with Saudi reticence and who gets most done out of those two?

The Israelis have got zeal too, in spades.

The Saudis have money.

And the US has money.

There's your mates from a US objectives and interests point of view, ignoring any past history from yesterday to yestercentury and everything in between and before, just thinking about the here and now.

Now look at their interests.

They want to defeat all the same people the US wants to defeat. We now have a linear conflict. So all that crap in the link JK provided about "it's complicated" and how the West is poor at non-linear conflict and diplomacy, it goes away. We shift the field of glory onto a battlefield of our choosing, with our doctrine. It's a linear straight fight: -

US
Rojava
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Jordan - A passive friend who is also needed, albeit not a zeal-bringer; friendly to the West and the others in the coalition and very desirable for supply of that "bone shaped" territory and facing off Iraq - look at the map.

vs

Assad
Mad Mullahs
Dirty Erdy
Vlad
IS and other Islamists

Carving out that territory with boots on the ground knocking out all comers in the way and saying "We are something now" would be an endgame to the non-linear dynamics of the ME. It wouldn't be pure peace but it would render the region a "frozen conflict" (as Vlad likes to call them) in favour of the US.

And JK, Incirlik is an irrelevance now. Even those worrying about it spell out the fact that the US has worked around it in anticipation of a break from Turkey ever since "Dirty Erdy started getting shirty" (God that's awful ... Ed). Read the relevant bits in this for example (actually linked to in your link) ...

https://www.voanews.com/europe/key-us-base-risk-turkish-us-tensions-escalate

On balance I suspect that Trump is a "does what it says on the tin" bloke. As Bob says, my stuff might be a "imaginative". But as these things build and build, the "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer": cuddling up to the world's rufty-tufty bad guys, holding your allies in contempt and even full-on letting them down, letting go John Bolton for whom this would have been "right up his strasse", is it subterfuge and false signalling to ready the stage for the ultimate stab in the back of the rufty-tufty bad guys?

A flickering light part of me still keeps wondering. And hoping.

SoD

Trump has actually done something good: annoy the neocons:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/10/10/first-trump-betrays-kurds-then-come-justifications/

Boot even mentions Trump's conflict of interest.

JK,

What SoD said.

SoD,

The short response to "If your aim is to defeat the Islamists, Assad, the Mad Mullahs, and Vlad" is that, that's not my aim. So please to 'de-couple' me from Bob in that regard.

Bob there's really an easy fix so far as the "neocons" (in quotes because too often it's used solely in reference to Republicans - bear in mind 'regime change in Iraq' as a goal of US policy dates back to the [Bill] Clinton Administration)

Anyway there's an easy fix for the "neocons" - a Congressional Declaration of War - hopefully only after a proper debate! Whether Max Boot will volunteer to be on the first troop transport time will tell. I suppose Bob you're putting your affairs in order?

JK,

I'll repeat I've never joined a political party. You've just pointed out one reason: At one time the neocons were almost all Democrats. They became Republicans because they no longer saw a future with the party:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoconservatism

You should get over the idea that is someone isn't a right winger they must be a wild-eyed leftist.

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