Oh no, a civil war - inside the National Review!

Now look here, JK, you are the D&N archivist but you are also supposed to possess the skills required to read what passes for my mind and, er, 'intuit' what I am about to write.  This morning I read the NR article you linked to in your last comment and began to write a post on the subject but then, dammit, those bloody-bloody "events, dear boy, events" intervened and I had no chance to finish it.  Eventually, I return to find that you have given the game away and thus ruined my reputation for being a really, really deep, serious thinker - sorry, did you say something?

Well, what the hell, it's not the first time I have nicked the thoughts of The National Review in general, and the excellent Mr. Andrew C. McCarthy in particular.  What is particularly fascinating about this article is that it shows Mr. McCarthy in resolute opposition to the views of the NR Editorial team.  I trust no paper coffee cups were hurled!  Actually, it increases my approval of the NR that they can air their differences - you don't see much of that sort of thing in 'The Graun'!

In essence, Mr. McCarthy explains 'the bleedin' obvious' that the Middle East is a first-class 'festerpot' of the very worst kind and that President Trump's decision to get out was, so to speak, 'cruel but kind', particularly in regard to the Kurds, although it must be said, and he says it, that the Kurds have much to answer for themselves!  As I pointed out in my recent post on the subject, it's not so much what the President does as the way that he does it!

The next question is, when and how will he walk/flounce (delete as necessary) out of NATO?  Given that apart from us Brits, no other NATO member pays their full dues towards the cost of American protection, who could blame him?

ADDITIONAL:    Oooops!  Just read a brief post at Zero Hedge reporting that America is rushing 3,000 more troops to help defend that bastion of democracy and liberalism, Saudi Arabia!  Please, Mr. President, do get a grip!

 

 

Comments

[Pat]

The Poles, and I believe the Balts, do make their full contribution to Nato.
But I can readily see why an American would question pouring its blood and treasure for a bunch of freeloaders who lack the manners to say thank you.
Sure I want the US committed to NATO, but unless the other states pull their weight and start appreciating US support they deserve to lose it.

[Loz]

MBS and the Israelis have been itching to scuff up Dirty Erdy for ages. He's been cosying up to the Mad Mullahs and challenging Saudi leadership of the Sunni faction of the ME.

The linearisation of the conflict is taking shape.

Sending troops to Saudi makes sense to free up Saudi resources for the front-line. Anything similar the US can do lighten the load on Israel would help.

Then these two can help the Kurds out by providing some air cover and ground kit - only once Dirty Erdy's Panzers are well inside Rojava so NATO has no obligation to help him out.

The Turkish army were the main sponsors of the coup against Dirty Erdy, so his main motivation for sending them into Rojava is to keep them from hanging him from a lamppost and to quell unrest and raise patriotic popularity at home.

However, if Trump can drop his econo-bomb just as Israel and the Saudis knock out his Panzers and the Kurds push his reticent army out of Rojava, Turkey might get rid of him and Islamism. A return to a secular modern state of Ataturk's pre-existing form would be great.

Until that time a state that is Islamist, harbours IS, and buys Rooskie kit shouldn't be in NATO and should be fair game for warring with.

SoD

[Whitewall]

It seems the US in NATO is protecting Europe while Europe continues to try and extinguish itself. That is expensive assisted suicide.

Disagreement among the NRO staff is a good thing. Conservative organizations can do that. There are conservatives who want to conserve something but don't quite know what. It just sounds good. Conservatism inc. Then there are newer conservatives with and 'edge' to them. They know our enemy is not our own and no longer care about looking so elegantly principled while the seditious "Democratic" Party disembowels the very framework the Framers put in to prevent what is now happening. Getting along has passed its 'sell by date'.

[Bob]

All the arguments that Trump is playing 11-dimensional chess are ludicrous. Erdogan is his business partner. He campaigned on getting the US out of foreign entanglements and dare not cross his base. That's all, folks.

[JK]

Bob?

"Erdogan is his business partner."

That's rich, even from you.

[Bob]

From the horse's mouth: “I have a little conflict of interest because I have a major, major building in Istanbul and it’s a tremendously successful job,” Trump told Stephen K. Bannon (who was then working for Breitbart) in December 2015. “It’s called Trump Towers — two towers instead of one, not the usual one, it’s two."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/07/trumps-decision-syria-crystallizes-questions-about-his-business-his-presidency/

https://www.newsweek.com/ivanka-trump-tweet-thanking-turkey-erdogan-attending-istanbul-trump-towers-launch-syria-controversy-1463536

And in case it hasn't penetrated the right wing bubble, there's another Russia connection:

"The four-count indictment, filed in the Southern District of New York and unsealed Thursday, includes charges of conspiracy, making false statements to the Federal Election Commission and falsification of records. The documents allege an elaborate scheme to help an unnamed Ukrainian government official and a person who is described as having "Russian roots" gain access to U.S. politicians and government officials through campaign contributions in order to advance business and personal financial interests."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/florida-businessmen-who-helped-giuliani-ukraine-arrested-campaign-finance-charges-n1064606

But keep the faith, JK.

[JK]

Might you know Bob, who actually owns those two towers bearing the Trump name in Turkey? Does the name Aydin Dogan ring a bell?

"Those Trump Towers are a pair of glass buildings in Istanbul that have borne Trump’s name since 2012. Trump doesn’t own the buildings—the situation might be less complicated if he did. Instead, Trump licenses his brand to the building’s actual owner, Turkish business magnate Aydin Dogan, who has been described as the single largest payer of taxes in Turkey. He’s a one-time antagonist of Erdogan who is now in step with the strongman."

"The conflict of interest and the way it could affect Trump’s position on important issues—or at least the perception of how it could affect his position— quickly became obvious after Trump made this comment."

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/10/reminder-trump-has-a-massive-conflict-of-interest-in-turkey/

Now of course the MotherJones article (from which the WaPo article you've linked) goes onto - as might be expected - insinuate Mr. Dogan is the guy who's actually the friend of Erdogan however no mention is made whatsoever as to how that "friendship" may have gotten its start.

You've heard Bob the expression "a marriage of convenience"?

I would suggest friendships can sometimes be convenient too.

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/world/europe/10istanbul.html

You'll note Bob 2009 was before Erdogan found his "bus stop"? Years before the recent coup? Any idea how many people - of all stripes - Erdogan has imprisoned since the coup on what is sometimes referred to as "the pretense of evidence"?

Would you Bob take a chance with incarceration in a Turkish prison if all it took to forestall that unpleasantness would be a convenient friendship? I've seen Turkish prisons - I know what I'd say.

[JK]

One last thing Bob.

I note NBC mentioning [a] "four count indictment" but I fail to note mention of a trial much less a conviction.

I mention my noting there's an indictment Bob because I previously noted in a, perhaps related case, there was another indictment the SDNY laid against a Turk accused of conspiring with Micheal Flynn against the interests of the United States.

Curious to know what happened with that previous indictment Bob?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/24/us/politics/bijan-kian-michael-flynn.html

Pesky thing to presume people are just naturally guilty on account of a mere indictment - sometimes indictments get thrown out.

But you too keep the faith Bob.

[Loz]

“The government has failed to offer substantial evidence from which any rational juror could find beyond a reasonable doubt” that Mr. Kian had acted as an agent of a foreign power without notifying the Justice Department as required by law, Judge Trenga said.

So I note: Had it been "on a balance of probabilities" Kian would be inside with felon Flynn.

And now Dirty Erdy is shelling your Yankee arses as you crawl out of Rojava on your yella-bellies ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/11/turkey-reports-first-casualty-offensive-kurdish-held-syria-eu/

Dirty Erdy's got form on this of course: remember how he tweaked Vlad's tail by shooting down one of Vlad's planes for straying into Turkish airspace?

It's just the little strongman's charming way of messaging "I may be little, but I'm still a strongman" when in the company of other strongmen.

I'm swaying more to the "Does what it says on the tin" reading of the Don, than the "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer, ready for the decisive suckerpunch" reading of the Don.

But the establishment (remember them?) and democracy itself can flip on a sixpence. I just hope Dirty Erdy's filthy Islamist head is well inside the noose when one or other of those two kicks away the chair.

SoD

[Loz]

And lookie here, y'all ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/11/rudy-giuliani-trump-oval-office-turkey-iran-prisoner-swap

So now Dirty Erdy's cosying up to the Mad Mullahs, which has so enraged MBS and the Israelis, is a being sponsored by the Don's lawyer!

Jeez, in Blighty we've got Dad's Army and the Bolsheviks to choose from.

And in Yankeedom you've got the Don and Fauxcahontas.

For some reason I've got that old Stranglers classic "No more heroes" on my mind, "Whatever happened to, all of those heroes?..."

https://youtu.be/Pg2np37JNEg

SoD

[Bob]

JK,

As I understand Trump's business, he hasn't actually built a hotel or tower for a long time. He just leases his name, which still makes him millions. However, that's changing. Search "trump name removed".

SoD,

Trump has already alienated the intel services and has now done the same for the military. It's hard to see how Americans in general won't follow. Who do you think should run for the presidency?

[Bob]

SoD,

You being a computer guy and all, you might be interested in the following:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/warren-attacks-facebook-ceo-zuckerberg-after-his-trump-meeting.html

https://www.apnews.com/bb79fe7b315d43a188bd46318f8a990c

So you see, Zuckerberg and other billionaires are trying to become American oligarchs and create your Libertarian dream state right here in the good ol' USA. Come on over. It's a lot warmer than Russia. But you'd better hurry.

[Loz]

A monopoly laden private sector is hardly a "Libertarian dream state", is it, Bob?

Splitting private monopolies is a good thing. Privatising and splitting state monopolies is even better. Do both, and do it lots. The market is a neural network, the more nodes you've got the better it is. Like the brain, the more neurons you've got the, errr, brainier you are.

Nor is there any hint of a whiff of expropriation a la Jezza Corbyn about it. If I take a 10 quid note from your wallet I've robbed you. But if I also put 10 one quid coins in your purse I haven't robbed you I've merely given you change.

SoD

[Bob]

SoD,

So then, what power is going to split both public and private monopolies? Friends from the planet Zog? In my simple scheme of things we need both capitalism and the balancing force of democracy through government. And actually, that's how the US has always moved forward.

[Loz]

Breaking up private and state monopolies is a legitimate task of the state and has often been described as the state being like a gardener. It should leave most stuff to grow privately on its own, and when one plant or tree gets over dominant then prune it back or chop it down and plant some more.

That's exactly what you do with a neural network when working out how many nodes it should have optimally, it's even called pruning ...

https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/181/how-to-choose-the-number-of-hidden-layers-and-nodes-in-a-feedforward-neural-netw

What you definitely shouldn't try and do is step in and try and use your own brain to interfere with or set those nodes and layers. The neural network will piss on you in a straight competition for the task in hand.
It'd be as stupid as a gardener getting frustrated at his unattractive garden and trying to stand there painted green with paper leaf shapes stuck to himself saying "Look, that's how it's done" to the trees, instead of planting a tree. Weird but true, like the public sector trying to outperform the market, never works, always gets pissed on.

With a neural network you train it, right. So if it's an expenses app you show it a hundred bills, receipts, and supplier invoices by scanning them in and letting the input layer of neurons, one per pixel of the scanned expense document image, do its stuff, pass it to the next layer, and so on to the output, then back and through (yes, feedback, non-linear, Godel, etc. etc.) until the right answer comes out - the right answer being a match to the value of the expenses document, £103-49p or whatever, that you have typed in. After the first 100 training docs, from then on if you feed in a million bills, receipts, and supplier invoices documents the NN will pluck out the value quicker than you can feed 'em in, and certainly quicker than your brain - the state - can do it.

Training an NN is like the buyers in a market feeding their requirements into the input layer of an NN. First output crap, feed it back in, version 2 of that Volkswagen Gulf comes out, better but could do better, version 3 nearly there, version 4 bull's eye. Then the requirement changes, document number 2: SUV body shape, please. First output crap, feed it back in, etc ...

And what makes a buyer a buyer? They want something and it's backed up by buying power i.e. cash. No cash, no play with the NN.

So all the state has to do is make sure everyone's got roughly £14k per annum for the "Big 8" - the "Things without which harm will come to you" ...

Food
Clothing
Shelter
Health
Education
Energy
Information
Transport

... and prune the nodes in the NN of the market and job done.

So just two things the state is justified in doing: -

1. Pruning
2. Big 8 buying power

Job done.

SoD

[Bob]

SoD,

Fine, but that leaves out a lot of factors. Just one is human character. Libertarians would like to believe we're all rational actors motivated by Malthusian considerations. That's not even close to reality. For just one example, a lot of people would get bored with their limited buying power and branch out into harmful activities like theft, poisoned street drugs, and so on. You still need a government to keep order.

[JK]

Where 'Trump the man' is concerned Bob, I'll throw in the towel.

And admit you're frightfully good where getting me off my 'oohrahs' where what he's done in the particulars is concerned - though I will, secondarily admit I do derive, probably unhealthily, copious measures of pleasures where whatever The Donald has acted upon discomfits you equally precipitously. Acknowledging your "concerns with the Kurds" resembling so similarly Lindsey Graham's as to render our petty blogged commentaries meaningless.

Reminding myself that all I was intent on, initially, was oorahing the pulling of US troops out of the area Erdogan had so long telegraphed his ill intentions toward only to allow myself to get side-tracked.

I'll be intending for the future Bob to remain mindful of your habit.

Aware as I am now, having read DoD's actual words as regards the specificities where US policy toward Syria was presented officially rather than as characterized by the usual suspects the MSM, Max Boot and yourself Bob. Funny that last paired Bob, you with and likewise cheering in concert with the likes of Max Boot.

Along with SoD in some, albeit unlikely I'd earlier wagered, respects.

So in ending I'll just be finding my consolations where US official policy in Syria is concerned that US troops abandoned the Idlib pocket and restricted themselves to where they ought been limited to all along, given the well-known History (well-known admittedly mostly to those of us who have long paid attention to such things), that area where the Euphrates passes through the provincial capital of Dayr al-Zawr on its long enduring bed toward Iraq.

[Bob]

JK,

I'm trying to point out other people's positions concerning current events. I have no use for Max Boot or any other neocon. Senator Blanche DuBois Lindsey Grahm, you might have heard, is a complete phony:

https://thelibertarianrepublic.com/lindsey-graham-kurds-threat-to-turkey-prank-russians/

The link is a source no one would call MSM.

I'll try to make it more plain when I'm expressing my own opinion.