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Wednesday, 23 October 2019

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The same day I see the story about 39 dead people found in a truck-lorry- east of London...

Yesterday a news article says HRC casts a "shadow" over the Dem field. That is not a shadow but a stain. She would look good in prison orange.

Duffers, pur-leess.

Trigger warning required in these cases.

If most people think about Hillary at all anymore, it's only to think, "For the love of God, go away!" I think she should grow fangs and live forever just to scare the wits out of the likes of you.

Or in other words, Bob: "Nothing to see here, move along!"

Malcolm,

I don't care if Hillary goes to jail, but after decades of failed attempts to put her there, I'm beginning to suspect it's all about Clinton Derangement Syndrome and gothic sensibilities.

Having cut and run from Syria the Don looks like he's about to get booted out of Iraq.

So that'll be an entire arc of anti-American hatred from Syria on the med via Iraq and Iran to the Arabian Sea and Indian ocean backed by Russia, all bearing down on Israel and the Saudis. And, free of the distraction of internal conflict, able to devise and activate international terror plans against the US homeland and global interests.

It's as if we're back in 2001, but facing a Shia terror axis consolidated with well-founded state players instead of the Sunni terror axis funded by the Saudis.

The Israelis and Saudis must be pooping their pants.

And you're still worried about that crooked old has-been hag?

SoD

With one phone call Trump reversed any gains made with 19 years' expenditures of blood and treasure, put Putin in charge of a big chunk of the ME, and killed off whatever was left of US credibility in world affairs. Today he said:

"It’s been very successful. We’ll see what happens. Turkey has done what we’ve asked them to do."

It's amazing how many contradictions and lies he can pack into 3 sentences.

Why wouldn't the right want to change the subject?

Bob, the Yanks are still controlling the trade routes and the oil. You do not necessarily need to have troops on the ground nowadays.

That might be true, Glesga, but it's only a small part of the picture. Trump's surprise withdrawal resulted in deaths of allied Kurds, ISIS fighters being set free, US soldiers being fired on while bugging out and having to bomb their own bases to keep them from enemy occupation. Those they couldn't bomb are now full of Russians. We've also been shown video of Kurds throwing garbage on retreating US armored vehicles. There's no way to make this pig prettier with a little lipstick.

"Trump's surprise withdrawal resulted in deaths of allied Kurds."

You might Bob, might not though, remember before us "allying" so to speak with the Kurds we'd previously "allied" with the Freedom Fighters of the FSA? What, you don't remember our allys the FSA?

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/john-mccain-meets-isis-leader/

But of course as was true with much of what Saint John McCain put his fingers in there turned out to be issues:

https://www.start.umd.edu/news/discussion-point-prospective-military-power-al-qaeda-affiliated-groups-syrian-conflict

One of which being, as is contained in that second article, "our allies" the FSA had a bad habit of once we'd supply them with arms which they'd then set about to smuggle into Syria they'd promptly turn over those same arms to either ISIS or outright AQ affiliates.

But still - FSA was our "ally" - But so too oddly enough "our allies the Kurds" have been all along just as allied with Assad and Putin as they've been to us (the US) but its only just now with Trump being CIC its gone from being 'inconvenient' to very convenient:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?404388-1/hearing-evolving-threat-isis

"ISIS fighters being set free."

There's actually I'll admit Bob some truth to that - though its gone on longer than our MSM will (presently) recall from they're own reporting. For instance here's a CNN report on which the very first image displayed shows the ISIS flag waving bravely o'er that very same "ISIS prisoners camp (Al Hol)" the Kurds (supposedly) controlled:

https://cnnphilippines.com/world/2019/9/12/syria-forgotten-camp-isis-revenge-generation.html

&

https://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/09/isis-prepares-for-breakout-in-prisons.html

"US soldiers being fired on while bugging out."

You are aware Bob there's been a full fledged war going on in Syria since the Arab Spring took off in 2011 and the whole damn country is a free fire zone?

And, with some irony I'd note, the fire US soldiers came under originated from (another of "our allies") the barrels of Turkish artillery pieces?

"We've also been shown video of Kurds throwing garbage on retreating US armored vehicles."

Ah yes Bob I remember it well - you are referring to 2007 Anbar aren't you?

"There's no way to make this pig prettier with a little lipstick."

Finally Bob, we've got to something about Syria I can wholeheartedly agree with.

https://media.defense.gov/2019/Aug/06/2002167167/-1/-1/1/Q3FY2019_LEADIG_OIR_REPORT.PDF

I thought to Bob, seeing as how that September CNN report specifically mentions a report the Pentagon having been released in August I'd better provide that too else you accuse me of holding out information critical to your defenestration of my informed opinion that abandoning northern Syria was the correct thing to do. Under the circumstances.

“We’ve secured the oil and therefore a small number of US troops will remain in the area where they have the oil," he said. "We’re going to be protecting it and we’re going to be deciding what we’re going to do with it in the future.” - The Don

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/24/donald-trump-claims-securing-oil-syria-us-reality/

Don't you wonder if it might have been a good idea to think that one out before pulling out of the surrounding area?

Sweet Mother of God, help us please.

SoD

JK,

Thanks for reminding me how complicated the situation has been. There have been plenty of people smarter than me who thought the Iraq invasion and following mission creep were not clearly advantageous to the US. That doesn't change that Trump caused a catastrophic chain of events with his phone call with Erdogyn. A lot of the Kurds killed during retreat were civilians, and now Erdogyn and Putin are settling how they'll carve up Syria, complete with ethnic cleansing. According to news analysis, we should hope Assad kills the escaped ISIS fighters, because Turkey will probably not bother with them. And as SoD has already mentioned, the Iraqi military is barring retreating US forces, at least for the time being. Trump is bragging about what a great success it's all been. Do you agree?

"That doesn't change that Trump caused a catastrophic chain of events with his phone call with Erdogyn."

Bob do read please the entirety (as I have) of DoD OIG's report than get back to me.

"Trump is bragging about what a great success it's all been. Do you agree?"

A qualified, Yes Bob, I agree.

SoD,

"Don't you wonder if it might have been a good idea to think that one out before pulling out of the surrounding area?"

Trump (and 'all civilian' team) are are, I'll grant quite new at this "Syria situational awareness" thing and so coupled to their having had constantly to deal with what, for brevity's sake I'll term Trump Derangement Syndrome from the moment CNN's Election Night Team erupted in tears and rending of garments upon the realization their (please forgive my employing a US Civil War era term) Anyway on their realizing their March To The Sea had been interrupted for the duration of a single term-limited President his and his team's been occupied attending to "other stuff" which, no doubt, caused him [Trump] some distraction.

But while The DC Team has been so occupied others out in the hinterlands [ie, Flyover Country] have been relatively free to, as you've put it "think that one out."

Not to put "a shine" on what little part even such as D&N's own obscure little personage who, usually only noticed (and thought to) be busying himself solely rummaging through your Dad's archives I shall, in all humbleness put on offer a letter I sent to my state's Congressional delegation - aware prior that, even before bothering to read all the stuff Congress had been provided in advance of the "surprise pullout" that anything I might communicate likely would be for naught.

But then, "Events" it would appear ...

"10 OCT 19"

"Allow me to begin with my stating I support our President’s extricating US Forces from northcentral Syria generally, I’m guessing from near Akcakale in Turkey (Manjib in Syria) from the east westward to Syria’s Idlib province. From my previous communications I am confident you’re aware of my opinions toward Erdogan. And the Russians. And the Iranians."

"However I do not support pulling US Forces entirely from Syria. I suggest consolidating forces concentrating around the Syrian provincial city of Dayr al-Zawr (alternately spelled Deir ez Zor, depending on source) capable of assisting in force extending some distance toward Jordan (Al Tanf) fortifying and consolidating from say, ar Raqqa (on the Euphrates) Syria to the entirety of the Kurdish Autonomous Zone of Iraq. If any Kurds are truly “our allies” it’s the Iraqi Kurds – and I’m informed Iraq’s Kurds get along better with the Turks than Syria’s Kurds."

"I choose the provincial capital which is Dayr al-Zawr because I am very well acquainted with West Point’s CTC 2007 publication of “Al-Qa’ida’s Foreign Fighters in Iraq, A First Look at the Sinjar Files.” Too I am familiar with the various iterations of what our media has settled upon as ISIS – Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s first AQI (2004) next ISIL (2011) then IS (2014 Daesh) presently agreed, ISIS."

"Yes it will be regrettable some number of YPG/SDF go to their rewards perhaps somewhat prematurely but that’s on that duplicitous bastard Erdogan not the US. Erdogan after all was never known to be averse to employing franchises of AQ to set up numerous shops in Idlib province. And I’m reasonably sure the Syrian Kurds can get along quite well with the Russians. And heck, if the Syrian Kurds tire of guarding all those ISIS fighters in captivity I’m also reasonably sure Russian air assets can get coordinates from their new “allies” and take care of that problem in a manner that tends to make us Americans and Europeans squeamish. But then heck, we don’t want them and from everything I’ve been reading in the European press they don’t seem to be making too much of a fuss to get them back either."

"Now of course if Russia does to the ISIS fighters as I suspect they may, they (Russia) can probably depend on taking on some larger portion of the enmity those ISIS types seem to hold in vast reserves of toward us. Should that happen I’d say we get the better part of the bargain."

"I think Senator if you’ll take a look at a map showing the routes Iran appears to be building toward the Golan I think you’d agree if we concentrate on Syria’s easternmost province, extending support as necessary toward Jordan, we should be more effective cutting the southern route and a great deal of the central route. And as the Israelis seem to be enjoying better relations with the Russians than we’re allowed to enjoy, my guess is the Russians and the Israelis can likely work out a more cost effective means of interdicting the northern route. Too it wouldn’t surprise me if the Syrian Kurds would be willing to work out a deal with both the Israelis and the Russians to give them a hand."

JK,

Wow.

Oh Bob?

One last thing regards your immediately above comment:

"According to news analysis, we should hope Assad kills the escaped ISIS fighters, because Turkey will probably not bother with them."

Specifically that last clause, "because Turkey will not bother with them."

Oh Turkey will definitely be "bothering" with 'em because afterall Bob, what we [the ISF] refer to as ISIS, Turkey refers to as FSA.

You remember Bob where I above in my 01:22 comment (paragraph #1 following that second link) mention "FSA Freedom Fighters turning over US supplied arms to ISIS or outright AQ affiliates"?

https://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-backed-rebels-surrender-us-arms-to-al-qaeda-in-syria/5411835?print=1

You've Bob maybe heard the proxies Turkey has since 2014 and is supporting even as we type were, from the start "most convenient" for their [Turkey's] purposes owing to the fact the FSA were (and are) Sunni and so were dispositionally inclined toward considering the Alawites heretics (as do perhaps coincidentally the Turks themselves) and, as heretics the 'of the Wahhabist bent' Sunnis in combination with the (now) Islamist Turks could be "righteously dispensed with"?

Two Israeli tank brigades out of Golan and into the West end and centre of the corridor, (if they're there they're not needed in the Golan, so they won't be missed), one Saudi tank brigade on the East end of the corridor coming through Jordan and up to the Euphrates to do the blocking at the Iraq border, and shitloads of air cover.

Build a new road from Israel straight along the corridor to the Euphrates and Rojava, join to Jordan also. Suck out the oil from Rojava.

Thereby fund Rojava with its own oil revenue and deprive Assad and Vlad of what remains of Syria's oil, cut Assad and Vlad off permanently from Iran, and join-up the allies - Rojava, Israel, Jordan, and Saudi - in the central position.

And here's a concession: if it meant Dirty Erdy grabbing the border buffer zone, and thereby bringing him slightly more our way and away from the Rooskies, yes, it might have upset the Kurds, but with the corridor and commitment they would've swallowed. Tell Dirty Erdy he can ship the IS inmates out of Rojava and into Idlib and let Assad and Vlad have the pain in the arse of scuffing them up.

That's the letter wot you should've writ, JK.

SoD

https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Syria%20Study%20Group%20Final%20Report.pdf

That's the report SoD the US House of Representatives "mostly" has depended on for its assessing the state of affairs pre-withdrawal. The Senate of course got that one too but owing to the Senate's holding the more "influential" Armed Services Committee (and the individual Senators' staffs are a helluva lot bigger) they had to account for and balance the stuff generated in the report I linked above in my 01:44 comment.

Let's review what's been released (open-sourced in general public parlance) as regards just the oil-related stuff shall we?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2661134/Iraqi-PM-says-government-forces-striking-ISIS-plans-wave-terror-attacks-Baghdad.html

https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-09-16/isis-selling-cheap-oil-its-enemies-syrias-government-kurds

(It's noted as acknowledged in the House focused study that the Kurds have all along been selling crude to Assad's regime & asssociateds (to which I'm alluding with my "But so too oddly enough "our allies the Kurds" have been all along just as allied with Assad" from my 01:22 comment) so Bob's of 11:51 "Thanks for reminding how complicated" would seem appropriate.)

Israel (not explicitly named in the IG report - but given what we know of "other actors" they're the most likely) wisely has forgone tanks depending on air assets to strike far more extensively deeper into Syria than press reports indicate - For instance "other actors" are reported to have attacked Dayr al-Zawr in 146 instances as compared to ISF strikes only numbering 127 times.

To appreciate how important Dayr al-Zawr is, and has been even going back so far as 2004 the study I referenced in my comms with Congress should be familiar:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/111001074/West-Point-CTC-s-Al-Qa-ida-s-Foreign-Fighters-in-Iraq

However my fully recognizing you and Bob are not at all likely to devote anywhere near the time and effort I have (of course in an earlier life I got paid for doing so) But anyway, recognizing y'all ain't likely to read all this shit suffice to say if one draws a rough line from Jordan's Al Tanf through Syria's Dayr al-Zawr and Markada straight through Iraq to the Iranian border: the area south of that line in Syria and north of the line in Iraq; that's where the bulk of the region's producing oilfields are located. (See map top of page #6 House report.)

A sore-point for the Iraqi Baghdad-based central government the region delineated to the north of that line "just happens to be" where the Kurdish Autonomous Zone is located - So one may gain an appreciation of why Iraq's central government ain't too keen on "hosting" a longish term contingent of US Special Forces with, presumably, CAS aircraft.

Where Idlib is concerned SoD, I don't think "us" being anywhere near the place "for awhile" owing to Assad forces (with Russian air support) having kicked off back in April of this year which has very recently run smack dab into ... Well see page #27 of the House report ... At any rate SoD, I think being anywhere near the place for the foreseeable future would be a supremely bad idea.

https://audioboom.com/posts/7405715-reviewing-and-regretting-america-s-foreign-entanglements-bruce-thornton-hooverinst

By George and all the Saints, JK, you must have been damn quick adding my updates into your revised letter and on to the "authorities"! ...

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-us-has-plan-send-tanks-troops-secure-syria-oil-fields-amid-withdrawal-1467350

Half a US Armoured Combat Brigade Team, Abrams 'n' all, right into to oil fields of Rojava!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigade_combat_team

An armored brigade combat team consists of seven battalions: three combined arms battalions, one cavalry (reconnaissance) squadron, one artillery battalion, one engineer battalion and one brigade support battalion. As of 2014, the armored brigade combat team is the largest brigade combat team formation with 4,743 soldiers. Prior to 2012, the armored brigade combat team was named the heavy brigade combat team.[2]

"Father Abrams, Seven sons 'e 'ad,
Seven sons 'e 'ad, Father Abrams,
And he never laughed,
And he never cried,
All he did was go like this ..."

We used to sing that in the TA bar and then do something daft like slap our thighs or something I can't remember, suddenly came to mind!

I'll bet that ABCT is the one that's first upgraded with the Israeli Trophy anti-ATGM system ...

https://www.janes.com/article/92110/rafael-s-trophy-aps-delivered-to-us-army-for-abrams-integration

An ABCT includes 90 Abrams tanks, 90 Bradley IFVs, and 112 M113 vehicles. The operational cost for these combat systems is $66,735 per mile. The range of the Abrams limits the brigade to 330 km (205 miles), requiring fuel every 12 hours. The brigade can self-transport 738,100 L (195,000 gallons) of fuel, which is transported by 15 19,000 L (5,000 gal) M969A1 tankers and 48 9,500 L (2,500 gal) M978 tankers.

Whoooaaa! Get some you tankers you!

So where's the fuel gonna come from to keep that lot rocking and rolling?

It's got to be that corridor along the border with Jordan.

Will the Israelis pincer in from the Golan and join up with the corridor south of Damascus?

And was Trump's withdrawal from the border area between Rojava and Turkey a cunning ruse to draw Assad and Vlad away from the intended area of operations and thin their forces on the ground?

There's something big going on and about to happen, I can feel it in my water.

SoD

This is bloody fascinating ...

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/10/pentagon-guardianship-syria-oil-fields-pushback.html

The oil fields are mainly peopled by Arab Sunni folks who are none too keen to be lorded over by Kurds or Assad and Vlad.

And the Israelis are all gooey-eyed for the Kurds ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/indepth/opinion/israeli-outrage-turkey-syria-operation-191025094744106.html

So how does that work out?

Saudi and the Arab nations put forces and support into the oil fields and Israeli likewise into the Kurdish areas of Rojava. And the US supports the lot with aircover and half an ABCT to join up supply routes through the corridor to Al Tanf and Jordan and so Assad and Vlad don't feel minded to get their arses kicked (like they did back in 2018 when 300 Rooskie mercenaries got wasted trying to poke their noses into the oil fields).

And here's the coup-de-gras. And this one is a corker. Drum-roll, wait for it, wait for it! Ta-da - Trump announces the new sovereign state of Rojava to the world as an Xmas prezzie, fully backed up by the US, Israel, Saudi and the Arab nations!!! ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpost.com/Opinion/Dont-be-surprised-Donald-Trump-will-recognize-a-sovereign-Kurdish-state-605732/amp

Well, whaddaya reckon to that?!

Fades to all singing, "Father Abraham, Seven sons 'e 'ad, ...".

SoD

SoD,

"So how does that work out?"

That should be apparent by now SoD.

Bob,

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/snl-mocks-trump-for-making-isis-great-again-on-night-of-baghdadi-raid

Your Xmas prezzie comes early!

https://audioboom.com/posts/7408554-death-of-baghdadi-1-of-2-lessons-learned-from-the-death-of-binladen-thomasjoscelyn-billroggi?playlist_direction=forward

https://audioboom.com/posts/7408552-death-of-baghdadi-2-of-2-lessons-learned-from-the-death-of-binladen-thomasjoscelyn-billroggi

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2019/nov/06/trump-signs-off-on-gis-securing-oil-lan/?latest

Anything to add SoD?

SoD, from certain of your herein comments:

"Thereby fund Rojava with its own oil revenue and deprive Assad and Vlad of what remains of Syria's oil, cut Assad and Vlad off permanently from Iran, and join-up the allies - Rojava, Israel, Jordan, and Saudi - in the central position."

[...]

"By George and all the Saints, JK, you must have been damn quick adding my updates into your revised letter and on to the "authorities"! ... And the US supports the lot with aircover and half an ABCT to join up supply routes through the corridor to Al Tanf and Jordan and so Assad and Vlad don't feel minded to get their arses kicked"

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2019/nov/06/trump-signs-off-on-gis-securing-oil-lan/?latest#images

That about what you had in mind SoD?

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