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Friday, 07 February 2020

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I can only assume that this was a botched attempt at "hard cop/soft cop".

The deal should be that if he manages to get six clear weeks without strikes and with no tear gas fired at middle-class protesters, then we might agree to hear his views on how to run a country.

An "archer's salute" would be appropriate.

Or perhaps 'Soddez-la pour un jeu de soldats'...

I think maybe mini Mac just needed his daily dopamine rush. Nothing else is working for him.

Why are you lot getting knicker-twisted about a single market access deal with the EU? You spent 3 1/2 years rabbiting on about leaving the single market and now all you can talk about is how awkward the Frogs et al are being about letting Blighty back in?! Are you Junck-the-Drunk in disguise (gotta be missing him already)?

In a world of four important blocs, which are ALL multi-state political anatomies with internal single markets: the EU, US, China and India, there is little space for another multi-state player, let alone a small player compared to them like Blighty.

Each of those blocs has all it needs to get by domestically, so the game at the borders for them has long ceased to be free trade. Rather, it's war by other means. Large internal single markets in each of them affords that luxury. Instead of their pols letting globalisation continue to rip for the benefit of their people, like the 90's and early 0's, the sufficiency threshold has been met for the peeps: "You've got enough out of it, so now it's back to mercantilism and protectionism so we get some play time too" say the pols.

So in this Game of Blocs, what's the rules? Well, good ol' Alfie Solomons from Peaky Blinders' wise words: "Big. Fucks. Small. Always.", is quite on the ball. So how does Blighty do a Tommy Shelby and find a winning place in spite of BFSA?

The answer is Switzerland-of-the-world, Singapore-on-Thames, call or what you will. Back out of the game and be the place they can all transact without tariffs, quotas, and friction, where the war is suspended for getting things done before sending them over the border of one or other bloc and into the war zone of tariffs, quotas, and friction. Be the oil in the four cog machine, don't try to be a cog.

And for that there are no deals need doing. Unilateral zero tariffs, zero quotas, and a multi-market. It's all you need. Doesn't need any jaw-jaw with Macron or anyone else to get that done.

They'll come and put their factories and distie centres in droves. And they'll leave you alone coz you withdrew from the game but simultaneously made yourself useful.

The world needs a bigger place than Singapore or Switzerland for this neutral territory these days, a bigger place for a land of the free, a place for "the Citizens of Nowhere".

Blighty is prime candidate.

SoD

Your analysis is a bit off the mark, SoD. The US and China blocs can't really be seen as separate. They're dependent on each other, as Trump's tariffs have proven. The relationship works on many levels:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-globalization/

Useful article, Bob. I've skimmed it and will read in detail later.

It is true to say that the blocs will always allow trade with each other directly, and that will continue to grow with the tariffs, quotas and friction of mercantilism / protectionism all switched on. But it will be considerably less for the efforts of the Don, the Euros, and the rest who will retaliate into mercantilism and protectionism.

But if Blighty can collect all the "less", the transit, store, assemble, transact work for everything that falls foul of such tariffs, quotas and friction, we'll be rolling in it! Loads of jobs for the shop-floor grunts "oop Norf".

Consider automotive parts and assembly, for example. Try doing that between the 4 blocs when the supply chains all pick up a tariff, hit a quota, and fill out a shed-load of paperwork every time a raw material, component, or part assembly enters a border. Nasty, and we no likee.

On the other hand, ship the lot - raw materials, components, part finished goods, to Blighty: no extra cost (zero tariffs), no limits (no quotas), no paperwork (friction-less due to the multi-market), and store, assemble, and trade it from there. You only pick up the tariff, quota and friction once, when the finished goods hit the final consumer across one or other of the 4 bloc paywalls. We likee muchly.

SoD

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