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Sunday, 29 March 2020

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The incontrovertible evidence that HMG and the NHS, "envy of the world", knew all about the impact of C19 3 years ago and did nothing. Meanwhile the countries with insurance based healthcare systems, like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Germany prepared ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exclusive-ministers-warned-nhs-could-not-cope-pandemic-three/

The NHS failed a major cross-government test of its ability to handle a severe pandemic but the “terrifying” results were kept secret from the public, the Sunday Telegraph can reveal.

Ministers were informed three years ago that Britain would be quickly overwhelmed by a severe outbreak amid a shortage of critical care beds, morgue capacity and personal protective equipment (PPE), an investigation has discovered.

Codenamed Exercise Cygnus, the three-day dry run for a pandemic carried out in October 2016 tested how NHS hospitals and other services would cope in the event of a major flu outbreak with a similar mortality rate to Covid-19.

It's like Blighty's military in the between the war years who ignored the warnings of the Blitzkrieg doctrine and refused to reform the infantry, armour, artillery and air support into combined arms armoured units. This in spite of Liddell Hart and JFC Fuller, both Brit officers, explicating the exact operation of such combined arms armoured organisations. The Panzer divisions, in spite of actually inferior tanks in the early stages of WWII, obliterated Blighty's armed forces quite literally with our own ideas. Just as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Germany have done in the war against C19.

When are you going to realize that Blighty is utterly crap at state operations? Every state is always outperformed by the market, even Marx and Lenin acknowledged that. But in the league of state crappiness Blighty is bottom of the division.

SoD

David, nice to see you rumbling again!

https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/28/its-not-a-choice-between-lives-or-the-economy/

The section wherein Mr. Kimball speaks of the distinction between 'From' and 'With' is, in my humble estimation, especially pertinent.

Our system, which is a patchwork of mostly private and some public components, has failed at least equally. The exact structure of the healthcare system isn't as important as the structure of society overall.

Our government was warned repeatedly about the dangers of a pandemic too. However, cheap foreign labor took priority over any concern for the ability to respond, protect critical supply chains, or even stock up on equipment before the need overwhelmed the ability to produce it.

Right now both foreign and American companies are hoarding the N95 filter material needed for protective masks. The federal government is also promoting a bidding war among states for critical equipment. Little has changed since 1835 when Alexis de Tocqueville wrote:

"I know of no other country where love of money has such a grip on men's hearts or where stronger scorn is expressed for the theory of permanent equality of property."

As a country we're not exceptional at striking balances and never have been. More about that will become clear as the weeks go on.

"More about that will become clear as the weeks go on."

And what pray tell, do you predict will result?

Assuming civilization survives ...

For one thing the actual results of the $2 Trillion bailout legislation.

Since all cause fatalities are less than normal I don't think we can have a shortage of morgue capacity.
Since fatalities from respiratory diseases are also less than normal I don't see how we can have a shortage of beds.
PPE is another matter, I guess the demand has gone up.
If course that's for the country as a whole- it is quite possible that there is overload in crowded, internationally connected locations where social distancing is difficult or impossible (e.g. London), but spare capacity in rural areas.

Here's the thing Bob: if the Confederates had won the American Civil War and Old Dixie was flying over the Whitehouse today then each state would've closed its borders long ago by now and you wouldn't be in the shit quite so badly.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/Coronavirus-FAQ-Can-a-U-S-state-close-its-15151440.php

SoD

You open the compartments on the ocean liner when all's good and plain sailing, single markets all round. And you seal 'em shut when you hit the ice berg.

That's the problem with Capt Mainwaring country-bumpkins: they're totalitarians when they should be Libertarians, and Libertarians when they should be totalitarians. And the VI Lenin Country-Bumpkins are just totalitarians always.

Neither does us any favours, or, well, I suppose you could argue that the VI Lenin Country-Bumpkins are at least right half the time.

SoD

SoD,

So not only would you support slavery, you'd also disagree with freedom of movement:

The Constitution prohibits states from “chaining people to that part of the land where accident of birth has first placed them,” Justice James Byrnes said in the lead opinion.

Have you given up Libertarianism for Nation Socialism?

Typepad is having fits with format, and it should be "National Socialism". The future belongs to you, chappie.

As an aside, if the CSA had won the Civil War, the CSA would not have met the 20th century as anything but a third world style economy with a wealthy planter class and a poverty stricken worker class.

Hitchens' point of view, though not in vogue at the moment is one that is vital at this moment. It is frightening to see among a free people how fast a devious Western media has brought people to a fever pitched panic with the most extreme initial projections from "experts" and their doom models. Once panic takes hold, government officials must demonstrate a suitable amount of panic themselves or the media will go into overdrive with blaring blood soaked headlines until they get what they want.

A similar take on this from a friend of this blog: https://www.thediplomad.com/2020/03/chicom-virus-and-lefts-glee-carter.html

You ain't seen nuthin' yet. There's a plethora of slebs lurking out there just itching to get their valueless five penn'orth down our unwilling throats. Then, after this is all over, the low-budget satellite TV producers will have teams of shouty rednecks making ten-part series where they don't find a virus . . .

Sorry ref the formatting, my bad for missing off the close italics tag in my last comment. It might work after I add it now ... italics gone?

SoD

Nah, Typepad's a bit old hat these days, isn't? They never fix any bugs, usability or otherwise too.

SoD

There, I hacked the Gaffer's blog site and fixed it.

SoD

Oh, 'kin 'ell, here we go, you're gonna Love this one! Belarus gets "SoD's official Country-Bumpkin and herd immunity capital of the World" award for 2020, knocking HMG's cabinet off the gold podium! ...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-belarus-president-refuses-to-cancel-anything-and-says-vodka-and-saunas-will-ward-off-coronavirus-11965396

Vodka and saunas. Eating breakfast on time.

I wonder, do you think Sky has swallowed a fakey with this one?

SoD

Ignorance is bliss. Hail to President Doctor Alexander Lukashenko, the likely ex leader of a failed state.

It's not fake:

“I am absolutely convinced that we could suffer more from panic than from the virus itself,” he told a meeting of officials on Thursday. Neighboring Russia’s border-security measures were “complete and utter stupidity,” he added.

As of Friday, Belarus had 69 confirmed cases of the virus.

https://apnews.com/0ae22102ba119c51a623cb42ebb9ecc4

Something tells me he doesn't understand exponential functions either.

Well, we haven't got a sauna so I had a stinking hot bath instead, and then breakfast on time for a change, and a slug of Slivovice (no vodka in the naughty cupboard, yes, I strictly reprimanded her) on my cornflakes. And, well, I must say, I'm effing Trump-raring ready to go!

Whoop, whoop, whoop, yeeee-harrrrggghh!

The Skype meeting at 10am's gonna be wickeed, I'm tellin' yez!

SoD

"Once panic takes hold, government officials must demonstrate a suitable amount of panic themselves or the media will go into overdrive with blaring blood soaked headlines until they get what they want."

Exactly so Whitewall,

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/files/documents/200122_Cotton%20HHS%20Letter_Wuhan%20Coronavirus%20FINAL.pdf

***

“The initial thought from the Dems, I think, is that we were trying to distract from impeachment,” a GOP Senate aide said. A White House official recalled feeling surprised at the “incredibly” poor attendance, noting that it came “even though the amount of concern expressed then was rather intense.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/30/how-coronavirus-shook-congress-complacency-155058

I reckon they're sufficiently panicked by now looks like.

SoD, given your post above, do you still have a job? Jes' askin'!

The Dutch have caught on too:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/netherlands-becomes-latest-country-to-reject-china-made-coronavirus-test-kits-gear

Just wait 'till you've all been stuck in the house for a few months. Drinking breakfast is going to be the next big thing. At least in my area liquor stores have been declared essential services, like grocery stores. Buy distillery stocks now. SoD, once Slivovice get boring you might try escalating to absinth.

Cotton deserves credit for recognizing the Chinese government can't be trusted. But C19 was probably passed to humans from bats, which are used as food all over the Pacific Rim and Asia. MERS originated in the Middle East and was probably passed to humans from camels. Ebola, Zika, and Yellow Fever all originated in Africa. Yellow Fever is becoming an increasing threat all over the world. Viruses mutate everywhere on the planet including Antarctica.

Whitewall, the Chinks send a free set of Christmas lights that do not work along with every resusitator.

Jimmy, why we in the West find it necessary to believe the Communist government of China is beyond me...well no it isn't. It's called trade and globalism one country is the equivalent of another and so are governments. Bullfeathers! How fast free people forget recent history.

"Just wait 'till you've all been stuck in the house for a few months."

Probably doesn't count as there were nearabouts 5000 guys more or less with me but back in '79 thru '80 I was on an aircraft carrier that did not touch a pier for 182 days. Then there was the 'little bit' I spent on a sub but 'I'm pretty sure' that was for just over a month. Maybe a week over or (definitely) under but I'd agree liquor (would have) been of help.

Crikey, mate! See 1:02am on this! ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-covid-19-news-updates-cases-deaths-flights-latest/

Hard-drinking Australians were told on Tuesday to limit themselves to buying just 12 bottles of wine and two cases of beer a day as a coronavirus lockdown saw panic buying of alcohol.

Major retailers agreed to enforce new rules limiting individual purchases as Australians went on a booze-buying spree amid a shutdown of non-essential services - including pubs and bars.

"It was clear that uncertainty on the impact of supply... caused some people to purchase differently," Retail Drinks chief executive Julie Ryan said in a statement launching the restrictions.

Australian social media has been awash with video and pictures of shoppers loading supermarket trolleys with alcohol in the face of lockdowns that could last weeks.

According to the World Health Organisation, Australians aged over 15 consume an average 12.6 litres of alcohol a year - second only to the Czech Republic.

12 bottles of wine for the missus and 2 cases of beer for the master of the house, per bloody day!

Makes my breakfast antics look quite normal!

And look at those Czechie tipplers - even more!

Mind you there is something munch-mungous about a litre of proper Pilsner lager chased down with a shot or two of home made Slivovice, we could let them off!

But 24 tinnies of Castlemaine XXXX piss water and 12 bottles of Woolabra Wonga ("it's got a bouquet on it like an aboriginies's armpit"), wtf?! ...

https://youtu.be/bcM3ATkNIS8

Oh, and now for something completely different ...

https://youtu.be/7DqvweTYTI0

Or maybe not.

SoD

The more I read about the Don the more I like him!

Not only is he Libertarian at home and Machiavelli abroad, he's Johnny Reb at home too! ...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/governors-trump-coronavirus-156875

I Love the way he's pushing down on the top nobs in the states and saying, "You want states rights, you got 'em, but they come with some responsibilities TO PULL YOUR FINGERS OUT AND GET STUFF DONE!"

It's amazing the instinctive nature of people to decentralise, compartmentalise, in a crisis. The main supermarkets round here have no bog roll, booze, pasta etc. but we now have a WhatsApp group just for our cul-de-sac with people sharing surpluses and doing shopping for each other! We only stockpiled it in to share it out.

The EU is letting the nation states get on with the micromanagement thereby showing its true confederate colours. In fact, coupled with Brexit demonstrating that any country can leave and not find tanks parked on its lawn the next morning the EU is not even as centralised as that! Rather the EU is now beyond doubt a mere treaty organisation and no threat to sovereignty whatsoever.

So time to rejoin then, eh folks!!!

And now, into the bargain, Old Dixie is back in town, heading exactly towards the sort of confederacy of the EU model! And actually aided, abetted, and encouraged in that direction by the the main man: El Don. The EU and US should be bosom buddies in no time at all, sharing notes and tips and tricks!

No wonder the Dems are pooping their pants: That Stalinist centralism nonsense won't get a look in after this!

Yeea hargh, ride 'em cowboy!

SoD

Loz, you have just made a good case not to remain. If all the member states are mucking in on their own then why do we need an EU passport and a bunch of wasters in the EU Parliament who do SFA.

SoD, over here that is called Federalism. The way America is supposed to work.

By George and all the Saints!

It's all over for Covid 19 now!

31st March 2020. On that day a bunch of guys and gals, latter day RJ Mitchells one and all, walked their latter day Spitfire blueprints from the drawing board to the development hanger ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/31/new-contact-tracing-app-could-key-ending-coronavirus-lockdown/

The NHS is preparing to release an app that alerts users if they come into contact with someone who has tested positive for coronavirus, in a move that could pave the way towards the end of the lockdown.

The opt-in programme is likely to be rolled out as the current restrictions on movement are lifted - and, if successful at limiting the spread of the virus, could prevent the need for further clampdowns.

Experts are now expecting the British epidemic to peak around Easter, before a steady decline.

The Government is hopeful that once the number of new cases is sufficiently reduced, the app could help it remain low, allowing the public to resume their daily lives.

It will work by using Bluetooth technology to connect users' phones to other nearby phones, and to record people who have come into close proximity - at a distance of two metres - for 15 minutes.

If someone tests positive for coronavirus and records it on the app, it will automatically alert those who were near them in the past few weeks, and ask them to self-isolate.

The Government does not intend to make the app compulsory in order to lift the lockdown, but millions will be encouraged to use it in order to avoid lengthier and more stringent restrictions being put in place.

Singapore's relatively low levels of coronavirus infection have been the result, in part, of the Government's use of the contact tracing app TraceTogether. On Sunday, the city state recorded only its third death from Covid-19 from a total of 926 reported cases.

But there have been concerns over data protection and privacy amid fears the new app could lead to widespread surveillance of the population.

NHSX, the unit driving the digital transformation of health and social care in the UK, has been working with civil rights groups to make sure data is anonymised and not used to monitor citizens.

The Telegraph understands that NHSX has been working on a six-week development window, and the app should be ready within a month.

Developers hope a majority of the population will download it, but new modelling from Oxford University has shown that it does not need everyone to sign up to be effective.

Professor Christophe Fraser, Senior Group Leader at the Oxford Big Data Institute, said: "It’s not a niche thing - the majority of people will have to have it - but you don't need everyone for it to work, and some people won't have smartphones," he said.

Looks like the latter day P50 is hot on the tracks of Blighty's wonder weapon too ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/mit-researchers-launch-location-tracking-effort-for-the-new-coronavirus-11585315674

All we have to do now is to hunker down, grit our teeth, and wait for the "Angels on our shoulders" ...

https://youtu.be/QnX_mQ9apu8

SoD

Is there anything Monty Python didn't know? In the next few months Darwinism is going to make quite a statement. Btw, Trump admitted C19 isn't flu yesterday. As far as the principle of better late than never goes, the special relationship with Britain is still strong.

Putin sent the US some medical supplies:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-31/putin-sending-medical-supplies-to-help-us-fight-coronavirus-ifx

So making new friends never hurts. Despite his rhetoric, Trump likes the Chinese too:

"This week the State Department has facilitated the transportation of nearly 17.8 tons of donated medical supplies to the Chinese people, including masks, gowns, gauze, respirators, and other vital materials."

https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/

Priti Patel throws flowers, well free visas actually, in front of foreign NHS staff urging them to stay ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-nhs-visa-doctor-nurse-paramedics-home-office-migrants-a9438211.html%3famp

Johnny Foreigners, eh, can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em!

SoD

Turns out it ain't just foreigners:

"An event history analysis of five social distancing policies across all fifty states reveals the most important predictors are political: all else equal, Republican governors and governors from states with more Trump supporters were slower to adopt social distancing policies. These delays are likely to produce significant on-going harm to public health."

https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf

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