There will be no deal with the EU

Why? Because of La France, of course!  As Matthew Lynn makes clear in the Telegraph today, there is absolutely no benefit for France if the EU signs a soft deal with the UK, indeed, such an outcome would be injurious to the French economy.

The conventional view will be that President Emmanuel Macron is fighting to protect the EU, preserve the single market and press forward with greater integration. The real answer is very different. It is France that has the most to lose from a more liberal, free-trading deregulated Britain.

Zut alors!  That cannot be permitted and, as seen from a French point of view, Macron's series of 'Non! Non! Non!' is understandable.

First, neither of us like to admit it but the UK and France have very similar economies. The populations are almost identical (66.9m France, 66.4m UK) and so is GDP per capita ($38,476 France, $39,720 Britain, says the World Bank), and with a similar balance between manufacturing and services (about 10pc for both countries, half the level of Germany).

They have higher unemployment and government spending than we do, and we have worse productivity. But there is not a lot to choose. The important point is this: aggressive deregulation, including lower taxes, and pro-business rule-making, will put our companies in a stronger position to compete with theirs – and they are already very close competitors.

Next, the battle for foreign investment has always been intense. Some investors will go to Eastern Europe for its lower costs or to Germany for its skills. But if you are looking for a mainstream, medium-cost European base then it is usually a choice between France and the UK. We get more than they do, but the gap isn’t huge.

All of that is self evident so I do hope that 'Boris & Co.' are not wasting too much time in trying to force a way past the French barricades and instead are concentrating on preparations for a 'No Deal!'  Also, I suspect but cannot yet put forward hard evidence that the EU is facing some extreme tensions which might end up as a car crash.  Quelle domage!

An additional 'MUST READ':

I have just read an excellent article by Douglass Carswell over at 'CAPX'.  It is essential reading if you want to understand the mass political suicide the EU 'apparat' is about to execute in negotiations with Britain.

 

 

Comments

[Mary]

I'm a little bit French. Mostly Anglo- Irish but even further tainted. with a bit of Gaul. Emmanuel Macron is a very clever guy. I watched him addressing an audience in Sydney which was about celebrating the efforts of Australian soldiers in defending a very particular area of France. He made Malcolm Turnbull look like a fool, such was the depth and reach of his speech, delivered in English.

If it comes down to Boris versus Emmanuel, I'm backing Emmanuel every time. He's a genius. Boris is a chancer.

[Loz]

A high tax and spend Blighty outside of the single market and behind tariff and friction barriers is exactly what France and the EU want.

A hefty tariff take at the border for Brit goods and services entering the EU will make up for the loss of Blighty's membership contribution.

A decline and fall pathway with final broken state profile for Blighty - the Venezuela of Europe - would suit France / EU nicely too pour decourager les autres from leaving the EU.

The last thing France / EU want now is Blighty in the single market or Singapore-on-Thames competing their arses off.

And Blighty isn't going to give them either of those options.

So all's well that ends well for them.

SoD

[Pat]

Raedwald's take is that France is hoping to extract favours from the rest of the EU in return for agreeing to a deal.
I would suggest that either tying us in to EU regulations or getting favours from the EU would be in France's interests

[Whitewall]

The Brussels "piffleocracy" have been listening to the wrong Brits? Well, isn't that the nature of all elitist organizations? Only their own kind will do.