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Friday, 27 March 2020

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This China virus lept into the public mind about Nov-Dec in China and surrounding countries but not into world wide awareness until Jan-Feb. Sweden in the dark winter months is not a high travel destination then and especially not to any Chinese travelers who could bring their virus with them. Thus little concern and any concerns about people visiting China on business can be quarantined upon arrival back in Sweden.

No worries Whiters, the Chinese can't wait to get out of the "herd immunity" countries like Blighty and Sweden! ...

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/27/students-try-to-flee-uk-by-chartered-plane-for-safer-china

... because they feel safer in China!

I wonder if my being born in Singapore might count for something when the next one arrives with a 50% death rate and I try to do a runner from "the herd"?

SoD

SoD, well if they like the safety of Communism, then hold the door for them.

Or maybe a runner to Germany? ...

https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/27/21196246/coronavirus-germany-death-rate-covid-19-cases-italy-europe

The Jerries are upping their testing to 500,000 per week ...

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/27/germany-increases-its-covid-19-tests-to-500-000-per-week

... while at the same time HMG will rise to the challenge and manage 10,000 per week ...

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/27/germany-increases-its-covid-19-tests-to-500-000-per-week

And the Jerries are grasping contact tracking and big data with both hands ...

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/27/world/europe/27reuters-health-coronavirus-germany.html

... while Blighty threw in the towel on that as "not an appropriate intervention" - a euphemism for "Too bloody difficult, old bean! And while we're on the subject, what is an app anyway?" Meanwhile the South East Asians pissed all over coronavirus with a contact tracing app and testing from day one ...

https://www.ft.com/content/fa747fbd-c19e-4bac-9c37-d46afc9393fb

Monster-beautiful graph from the FT - it's a free read article that, no paywall.

Next time round (if I'm still here): Anywhere but "herdy"-durbles Sweden and Blighty.

SoD

Germany? They speak funny English over there. Why run anywhere? Don't do "running". It is a bad look for an Englishman. Besides, the Germans are rather good at joining together and forming tight ranks.

Better dead than red, SoD. And in the same spirit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch7_t2Ri2Zg

Juliet Samuel is on the scent ...

Repeatedly, it [HMG] has based its decisions on statistical models whose assumptions have proved false, like the premise that Covid-19 was no worse than pneumonia or the idea that letting the disease spread to generate “herd immunity” could avoid many deaths. This week, deputy chief medical officer Jenny Harries claimed that the time for most “contact-tracing” – tracking down all close contacts of infected patients – has now passed. This goes directly against the advice followed by governments who are successfully controlling the virus, unlike ours.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/staying-homeis-not-enough-tobeat-virus/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-onward-journey

Total lack of preparation in spite of SARS, MERS, swine flu, Ebola. Followed by piss poor reactive decisions.

In 1975, gas, electricity, water, telecoms, car manufacturing, coal mining, steel manufacturing, transport, health, education, and social services were all run by these negligent abusers and they were all basket cases. They collapsed the economy and the country all on their own.

And now Blighty voted to give them an encore so we're back to square one, but this time they're not on their own - they've got C19 to give them a hand.

As this pans out I'm not sure whether WW2 might prove to be the lighter option and given the choice we'd rather swap places with our ancestors than face our current predicament.

SoD

My birthplace, plucky little Singapore, shows the way forward ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/25/coronavirus-singapore-to-make-contact-tracing-tech-open-source.html

Bluetooth, brilliant. Up close and personal, like the Tinder app except this one saves your life instead of getting you laid.

Solves part of the privacy issue because it doesn't track where you were, only who you were near.

Maybe Blighty's Westminster dullards might stoop to conquer by barking some instructions for UK developers to hook Singapore's code out of open source and get it on everyone's phones PDFQ.

Or maybe they won't.

SoD

The US has taken a different approach to cellphone tracking. Our intelligence services had seen the pandemic coming since last year. They're probably behind this:

https://www.dailydot.com/debug/cellphone-heat-map-coronavirus/

Btw, the US has surpassed China in the number infected and rate of spread.

Poor Sweden has been left on the sidelines.

Mind you, as a friend of mine commented, in a couple of weeks we'll be the first government in the world with herd immunity!

SoD

"Our intelligence services had seen the pandemic coming since last year."

A clarification is in order - actually *our IC* did not "see" this particular pandemic. What the IC does for these sorts of things is rather like a 'sand table exercise' meaning it can be thought of as wargaming more or less.

However to your second theorizing Bob, 'being behind this' it's not inconceivable some expertise was lent but only after the medico-trained folks (and yes in spite of NYT-types assertions to the contrary, there's still medicos on the NSC) informed the tech guys it was feasible to do so.

JK,

The warnings of a pandemic actually went back to 2017:

"The 2019 warning was the third time in as many years that the nation’s intelligence experts said that a new strain of influenza could lead to a pandemic, and that the U.S. and the world were unprepared. “Although the international community has made tenuous improvements to global health security, these gains may be inadequate to address the challenge of what we anticipate will be more frequent outbreaks of infectious diseases because of rapid unplanned urbanization, prolonged humanitarian crises, human incursion into previously unsettled land, expansion of international travel and trade, and regional climate change,” the 2019 threat assessment warned."

https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/

You're right they didn't predict C19 specifically, though.

I mentioned smart thermometers a while back. Here's a map of the data:

https://www.healthweather.us/

Bob,

"The warnings of a pandemic actually went back to 2017"

Well if you're gonna be snippy about it the bio/pandemic 'first report' I read was just after the anthrax mailings of 2001. The year as I recall was 2002. I've probably got a link stored on a flashdrive laying around one of my post-fire storage units but so long as you're not particularly in'trested in the exact year I'll not bother - aside from us just agreeing to the essentials that the IC produces and has produced a big bunch of shit about just nearly every imaginal sort of shitstorm that'll maybe plop on us?

Uhm too Bob - the 'smart thermometer thingy' link you placed there?

https://duffandnonsense.typepad.com/duff_nonsense/2020/03/on-leadership.html?cid=6a00d8341c5caf53ef0240a51aac5a200b#comment-6a00d8341c5caf53ef0240a51aac5a200b

"You're right they didn't predict C19 specifically, though."

You familiar with an author by the name of Dean Koontz Bob?

https://vigilantcitizen.com/latestnews/coronavirus-was-eerily-predicted-in-a-1981-novel/

My local librarian confirms the claim - inconveniently Arkansas' governor yesterday ordered the state's libraries "decontaminate the books." (Just how they're gonna do that I have no clue.)

Reckon it's just possible some CIA analyst remembering his pre-teen reading plagiarized Mr. Koontz for the 'IC product'?

Or maybe they got it from that 1995 movie Outbreak that showed up on Prime a few days ago:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outbreak_(film)

Or someone might have even remembered the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Or if'n I wanna get real snippy, Biblical plagues of boils and locusts and so on and so forth.

Further David concerning the Yerdie-Durbles:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/swedens-numbers-vs-americas.php

(of course 'our' resident engineer might have a quibble)

JK,

Nope. I'd never argue with a blog or any anonymous engineer with a PhD and 35 years analyzing data.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-iq32_KggE

If Bob was a journalist.

If JK was a journalist:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2UfcWQn-jY

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