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Saturday, 09 May 2020

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A simple requirement that experts show all their workings, as they were required to do on the path to gaining qualifications, would go a long way to help. We would then be trusting their work rather than their persons, and rival experts would be in a position to criticise the findings, resulting in better advice and better public knowledge.
If the expert refuses to show his working he should be ignored- and if his work was publicly funded the public should get their money back.

"A simple requirement that experts show all their workings .. would go a long way to help."

Exactly so Pat.

http://malcolmpollack.com/2020/05/07/27770/

So I'll double-post that (originally directed toward SoD as I'm aware he's, reputedly, 'a computer fellow') in case he doesn't return to older posts.

If I recall correctly there's an 'expert' that's been sued with the suits judge ordering the expert, fellow named Mann as I recall, anyway the judge has ordered Mr. Mann to do precisely that "Show your work Sir!"

Last I heard Mann the Modeller continues to demur.

The Ferguson model was a large factor in making public policy of panic in a pandemic-a panicdemic. Panic and fear is not a healthy environment to take over everyone's lives and drive many to ruin. After a while people will get suspicious of the ever changing goal posts by fearful experts and politicians. We wind up where we are now in the ages old predicament of "safety or freedom". Humankind has been here often. The dividing line between the two sides is 'fear'.

Someone once said, people who will surrender freedom for safety deserve neither, or words to that effect.

In 1851, in a History of All Nations, the author wrote it in more of the modern form, “they who can give up liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” It wasn't until the turn of the century did the butchering for ideological purposes begin.

Ol' Ben Franklin said it...

Hmmmm, maybe right, eh?

Far too many politicians around these days, when will we see proper people doing proper work.

“ I suspect that age has something to do with the amount of scepticism you have towards 'experts'.” As a wise man once said, “A sceptic is a realist with experience “.

Down here in Oz the "experts" predicted 30,000 deaths in Queensland and 36,000 in Victoria. I can't be bothered looking up the other States but the predictions were dire.

We have had a total of 97 deaths nation wide and 6,929 reported cases. No doubt the pollies will say that the low death toll is the result of the strict lock down policies and look how virtuous and caring they were in implementing them.

The estimates were based on "modelling" which relied on figures from outside of Oz and seemed not to take into account the unique situation we have in being an island continent we could effectively close down at the border. Much like New Zealand only much bigger.

I am inclined to listen to experts and question them on methodology and the sources of their base assumptions. However when the first words the expert says are "based on the modelling" it is time to start questioning a lot closer as to the relevance of the base assumptions and what innate prejudices the "expert" possesses.

At 78 I am keeping apart from the risks of catching this bug but I still want to know the relevance of the base upon which my decision has been made.

As Duffers says it is not difficult to keep apart from crowds when you don't live in the middle of a big city.

Here AussieD I'm seeing it explained quite forthrightly

Pandemic is nothing but 'Dem' surrounded by panic.

On another note I saw in a local paper (paywall else I'd link it) the following headline:

Man Dies of Coronavirus Immediately After Getting Eaten By Alligator ...

Soon as I saw that I figured Bob.

G'day JK

I hope the alligator is going to observe 14 days quarantine.

When this panicdemic is over, I wonder if the biggest cities in the West will begin to lose population quickly? People getting all packed together in relatively small places with all those conveniences at their fingertips may lose some allure. Throw in mass transit, shake and then pour and boom, mass sickness.

Without going into a lot of conditions and qualifications you have it about right, David.

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