Who wins 'over there' in November?

After years of predicting the outcome of elections 'over there' - and getting them wrong! - I must confess that I have not the slightest idea who will win in November.  The world everywhere is going bonkers!  Apart from anything else, who knows what 'The Donald' is capable of doing or saying between now and then?  Even he doesn't know!  Then there is that 'yuuuuuuuuuge' febrile mass of voters.  Does anyone know for sure which way they will shift over the next four months?  Of course, there are always the opinion polls which will come at us with increasing frequency from all directions but, seriously, do you really place much faith in them anymore?  If you do, I have a very nice, 1958 Ford Cortina with only 27,000 miles on the clock and previously owned by a vicar's wife - honestly!

The fact is that America is simply too 'yuuuuuuuuge' to get a grip of and make sense of a population that shifts hither and thither depending on the latest - usually false! - headlines.  I mean, seriously, does anyone believe what's printed in, say, the New York Times or the Washington Post?  Not, mind you, that I am unsympathetic towards the American 'Peeps'.  Given a choice between befuddled pensioner, Joe Biden, and that fairground barker, a.k.a. Donald Trump, I would find it impossible to choose.  I suppose, you could try and decide by taking a close look at the people who support them them but, alas, on the 'Left' hand you have a bunch of screeching adolescents and on the Right hand you have a gang - I use the word deliberately! - of 'get rich quick merchants' from any of whom you would never buy a used car!

So, my genuine sympathies to the American 'peeps' and I just hope you get it right in November!

 

Brit or American, if you read nothing else today, please read Janet Daley in The Telegraph!

 

 

 

Comments

[Bob]

Janet Daley is correct on the generalities, but a bit pessimistic by my lights. The US has a history of allowing mass immigration, then taking a number of years off for things to settle. After each cycle people of African decent are more just one more minority group. As the identity of North and South continue to diffuse, the Civil War will fall farther behind us and eventually into irrelevance except as history.

Polls are not, and never have been, predictive. They only represent attitudes during the time they're taken. They can only establish trends. The trend for Donny's popularity has been established for the past three years, and it doesn't look good for him. Last night he had his supposed comeback rally in one of the reddest of red states. It was only about 2/3 attended. His speech to the expected overflow crowd was cancelled because the "overflow" was only 20 or 30 people.

Joe Biden's best campaign slogan might be "Enough Already!"

[Whitewall]

I'll just leave it with Prof Victor Davis Hanson:
In his own way, Trump also fights back in 360-degree fashion, from the existential to the trivial, railing against Colin Kaepernick, tit for tatting Hollywood stars, weighing in on radical abortion, open borders, power outages, the homeless and subway jumping. The result is not just that there looms a choice between two different agendas, but two quite different American lifestyles and experiences—and histories.

Like it or not, 2020 is going to be a plebiscite on an American version of Orwell’s Nineteen-Eighty-Four. One side advocates a complete transformation not just of the American present but of the past as well. The Left is quite eager to change our very vocabulary and monitor our private behavior to ensure we are not just guilty of incorrect behavior but thought as well.

The other side believes America is far better than the alternative, that it never had to be perfect to be good, and that, all and all, its flawed past is a story of a moral nation’s constant struggle for moral improvement.

One side will say, “Just give us more power and we will create heaven on earth.” The other says “Why would anyone wish to take their road to an Orwellian nightmare?” The 2020 election is that simple.

[Bob]

The initial reports were wrong. Trump's rally was about 2/3 empty:

"Inside the 19,000-seat BOK Center, Trump thundered that “the silent majority is stronger than ever before.” Tulsa Fire Department spokesperson Andy Little said the city fire marshal’s office reported a crowd of just less than 6,200 in the arena.

Trump tried to explain away the crowd size by blaming the media for scaring people and by insisting there were protesters outside who were “doing bad things.” Hundreds of demonstrators flooded the city’s downtown streets and blocked traffic at times, but police reported just a handful of arrests."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503781-tulsa-fire-department-says-trump-rally-attendance-was-about-6200

Speaking of Orwellian, Fox News is blaming the low turnout on Trump fans' fear of violent left wing protesters, probably including the imaginary antifa hoodlums Fox sees everywhere.

And to be clear, just because Trump is unpopular doesn't mean he can't win reelection. Our electoral college system along with some clever legal maneuvers could give him a path.

[Bob]

Oops. The quote above is from AP:

https://apnews.com/39c6f6230b51bda88d6b61f49a281055

I started with The Hill then thought better of it.

[JK]

As it happens I received a call from my eldest daughter yesterday who, after the 'reqs' of the holiday went on for some thirty minutes covering other subjects - one of which particularly because she works for a major airline in the capacity of a maintenance supervisor. She resides about an hour's commute from Tulsa.

Anyway I asked if she'd attended the Trump shindig and her 'report' went something like this:

"30 of us [along with spouses and some number of 20-something progeny: say 70 total individuals] had bought tickets and were fully intent on attending but then [corporate hq] studying the covid numbers 'strongly suggested' we stay away from indoor crowds so as not to adversely affect such a major fleet operations component.'"

*I sorta/kinda got the impression there mighta been 'a bribe' connected by the way she vocalized the 'strongly suggested' bit.

Now personally I really don't give a shit about "the numbers" one way or another but if my daughter's report was at all or in anyway similar to other employed/engaged groups - Well. It just well might we really can't know anything about anything to do with the rally's numbers.

And it suddenly occurs to me something else she mentioned "Dad sorry about that noise, there's a helluva lot of helo [helicopter] traffic going on, I think there's some major rotation going on around [the air base] circling Tulsa - seems a division [a group of three heloes] every 30 minutes."

*From which I'm thinking there musta been some appreciable number of Guard [and probably a 'biggish' active duty number - bear in mind Secret Service coordinates this sorta shit] I figure it's not unreasonable to estimate around 5000 individuals involved.

And as I've mentioned around these parts before, except for alot of the Beltway Generals [and Admirals] there seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for troopers trapped on base during the workweek scheduling around their weekends something like a Trump rally. Just my 2¢ on that but I figure where the military is concerned my 2¢ is bigger'n Bob's 5¢.

(Oh and Bob you maybe remember my mentioning a son-in-law of mine being a program manager for the F-35? Well this is his wifely unit's well-connected report.)

[Up2L8]

Bob:

Define clever legal maneuvers? Do be specific.

[JK]

Secret Service being (as usual heh heh) pretty damn stingy owing to their OPSEC it's difficult as hell to verify what sorts of numbers of people were "tied down" doing one or another sort of security (or otherwise 'meaningfully occupied' heh heh) operation.

So what's a feller to do Bob?

https://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/detail_0_0279.html

Above note my saying my daughter living 'about an hour's commute from' - notice the *Area A's radius of restriction being 32 nm - Well couple that to her noting 'a division every 30 minutes' then figure there's probably two at least but more likely three "rings of air cover."

Anyway likewise as I was spitballing above I really don't think we can know anything about anything to do with *the number of attendees we're getting reports of - it's possible doncha reckon some of the LEO folks having to have spent the weekend (and it was hot) lugging around anywhere from forty to sixty pounds of "duty stuff" and wearing itchy clothes and tight shoes woulda preferred being in bermuda shorts and t-tops slinging wings and tipping beers "securing" their tail-gate party at the Trump rally?

Like I say - hard to know for sure.

[JK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/tiktok-teens-reserved-trump-tulsa-tickets-with-no-plans-to-go

Just now seeing that Bob. Doesn't take away anything the kid (well if anybody 42 whose own kid made me a Great-Granpap can be a kid) anyway, doesn't take away her telling me her group stayed away because of her employer's "advice."

[Bob]

JK,

I don't know that we have an inalienable right to infect our employers. So far 8 campaign employees and 2 secret service agents have probably picked up the bug in Tulsa. If it spreads through the White House the airline management is going to feel even smarter.

-

Up2L8,

I was being too polite but can't be more specific than to mention legal, semi-legal, and outright illegal ways to suppress the vote such as limiting the number of polling places in certain districts, or in this particular case making absentee or mail-in ballots hard to get or to restrict the conditions of their being counted. For more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_suppression_in_the_United_States

Also, Bolton claims Trump asked the Chinese for help, which would probably come in the form of manipulating social media and hacking:

https://apnews.com/8a7ff9c4e60678aafcd7f430e49196ea

Trump has already admitted he'd accept help from foreign governments.

[JK]

Yeah Bob funny thing about that bug doncha think?

Weren't it just a week ago the experts was telling us "it takes from 14 to 18 days before any symptoms will manifest" and yet with the Trump rally it only took 72 hours!

Kinda reminds me of Global Warming - damned magical if you ask me.

Oh. And I texted my daughter telling her to check out my comment here to see whether I relayed accurately - her reply email suggested I change 'a bribe' to "an extortion." She went on to report that Tulsa's mayor had put a curfew into effect and that some appreciable number of hotels/motels had yet to re-open complicating would-be rally attendees plans. And then there were the (of course) "peaceful protestors" managed to block off one of the advertised ingress/egress routes.

https://www.fox23.com/news/local/tulsa-law-enforcement-prepares-upcoming-trump-visit/NWUK77MQPBFWBKA6L4JVAZ5A5I/

She helpfully provided that link for the local media (date 18 June) from which I at least, can glean that attempting to "enjoy a peaceful rally" would likely prove a tiresome affair.

Actually given what I know now I'm amazed the crowd was as big as it was.

[Up2L8]

Bob:

I will be polite RE: clever legal maneuvers.

Don’t make statements unable to backup with detailed specifics.

The rest is a feeble attempt at deflection.

[Bob]

JK,

The staffers and security people who got infected were part of the advance team. I can't find any reporting on how long they'd been there before the rally, but it's probably safe to assume it took at least a few weeks to set up.

-

Up2L8,

Sorry to be feeble, but since I can't see the future I can't know exactly what the Trump campaign will do. Did you predict Al Gore's lawyers would only ask for Florida recounts in districts he was leading in 2000? If you did you should have bought a winning lotto ticket instead.