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Thursday, 27 August 2020

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"Or perhaps I could entertain my neighbours by going out onto our communal lawn and giving them some full on" As If A Learjet (could be flying in that weather) Our state dispatched three of our (specialty team) Water Rescue/Recovery units to the general area - Arkansas for those who may be unfamiliar, has *large vessel navigable rivers (think shallow draft barges mostly but we do possess cutters too; think 'small frigates') My resident county has two individuals dispatched with whom I'm in [some] contact but of late they're very busy trying to stay in their boats.

Here's the closest approach weather reporting station - the most recent (before Laura kicked its ass offline) windspeed: 98mph steady gusting to 132 - last contact reporting an estimated top at 150

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLCH.html

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/093157.shtml?swath#contents

Northernmost Arkansas counties I'm 4th from east, 6th from west: My "reckoning" from Donald or Boris 'seems/appears' fairly accurate:

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/093157.shtml?inundation#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/093157.shtml?peakSurge#contents

That last was a prediction as opposed to an observed surge however looking at buoy data (and specific remote [oil platform] automated stations) where that area of predicted 20' surge was the actual surge recording devices were set at 12' while the platform levels are at 15' - all data sources were overtopped.

At the time of [just] this comment I see no reports of tornadic activity.

Addendum:

Clicking those last two links I notice the 'prediction status' no longer is showing so I'll point to that general area of the westernmost "lake" (currently for accuracy's sake hell now it's all more of an 'inland sea'!) totally within the state of Louisiana to oh "about" 15 miles east.

The westernmost lake straddling the Texas Louisiana border.

*Note - At 30°N a single degree E-W = close enough to 60 miles.

(Whenever I get back into contact with one of the fellows - providing either managed to remain in the boat! - I'll try to get a clearer idea of the peak surge area.)

I sure hope if AussieD happens upon my putting one degree at that latitude at 60 miles, and I'm wrong, he'll be so kind to bear in mind navigator was never in my portfolio!

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/louisiana

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/11/derecho-inland-hurricane-destruction-midwest-iowa-illinois-indiana/3343472001/

Our electric utility fellows, just back from Iowa (2nd link) are gearing up for a trip to Louisiana.

*Our news media having gone completely bonkers today over the "most recent CDC covid guidelines" having absolutely no appreciation for the necessity of relaxation due to extremely wide area natural disasters being necessary are making themselves more nuisance than helpful.

They forgetting, conveniently, that the CDC as recently as five weeks ago declaring "masks are totally ineffective" not seeing the forest for the trees.

Anything and everything to, Get Trump! To them I say, get over it.

JK, I see on the schedule for the convention tonight your Senator Cotton will be speaking. Looking forward. A true Patriot.

Seeing as how 'a certain person' may take issue with my immediately above comment - and there being, as I see it, a real possibility of me getting cross-posted while I'm laying this out ...

Let's engage in a little "thought experiment" shall we?

Imagine all the legacy media punditry having been magically switched out from residing in both NYC and DC to the Louisiana coast and the governors of blue state America being in charge of Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi and Laura's still 36 hours from making landfall.

Reckon Cuomo of Texas, Whitmer of Arkansas, and Newsome of Mississippi, wouldn't then be a little less keen on making it so tedious to accept evacuees?

And even, those evacuees not being of illegal residency status?

Yup Whitewall and thanks, I'll give him your regards. I know he'll appreciate your saying so.

JK, and give him mine as well, after all, we ex-Paras (or glorified ground pounders, as you call them over there) must stick together!

Done.

And for what it's worth the communication went by phone rather than email which, in some cases is slower and sometimes much slower so yes David - but the word is, Once a Para Always a Para! - so I'd, if I was you, figure you was "personally messaged."

Another thing that came up was, in our current situation our's is not so dissimilar to yours'ns 'troubles' that while in our case it must be far more delicately handled it must be, 'handled.'

(Stand by for incoming.)

Important Disclosure - I spoke with "staff" - that staff responding to a communique I'd winged in its direction some few days ago which concluded with this final paragraph:

"Speaking of Chekov I think we all better be praying for the reelection of President Trump because if the alternate universe the Democrats promise us comes to pass I fear the peaceful protestors blocking traffic will probably begin to fan out. I'm concerned even in my small town the peaceful protestors will maybe be blocking me from going the two blocks to check my mail - with my bladder problems I do not think I would handle that as courteously as the peaceful protestors seem to believe I ought."

There are storms but then again there are other sorts of storms.

Wind is just beginning to noticeably kick up here. Linking to the closest Nat'l Weather Service 'Reporting' station:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBPK.html

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

So.

So far as Laura's affecting me she's more than abit similar to last week's DNC Snoozefest.

But where she was effective she was a mean ol' bitch.

Reminiscent of Hillary come to think of it.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=N0R&rid=LZK&loop=yes

That's my "local" radar.

What's just occasioned my linking that owes to my "local" tv stations (thanks Obama for implementing that 'digital only' "local" news broadcasting bullshit)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_television_transition_in_the_United_States

At any rate just above, of my comments, I remarked "Reminiscent of Hillary come to think of it" & looks like; that'll hold true.

(One needs some experience I suppose of the Clintons as Governor-of-Arkansas Administrationship to appreciate it was "All blow no suck" - Texas has this saying "All hat no cattle" - means basically the same damn thing.)

Anyway I figure to be watering flowers again tomorrow.

Near gale 2210 and brisk raining.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/beaufort.html

Rain at 0.5" in the nearest half hour. Winds estimated at 30 knots variable - no lightning, no thunder within earshot.

Winds noisesome and seemingly increasing.

Electrical power nonfluctuating.

Hillary's sucking - somewhat.

Strong Gale. Estimated 45 knots. Generally SW but variable.

Rain 3" and wildly falling.

Winds very noisesome (brick structure, elevation 200+ above sea, relatively little glass south, 2250 local (Zulu).

Generally I'd describe my local weather as churlish but given what I'm hearing 300 miles south of me occurred I'm going with 'interesting.'

Hate to be at sea in this shit admittedly.

2306. Totally calm (weatherwise)

However, wastewater drains are "gurgling" (which, hasn't been in past experience a "good sign"

2309 rainfall at 4"

County cops responding 2321 to vehicle "washed off low-water bridge" license plate reported as "not from around here, looks like Yankees"

Winds remain calm but rain gauge now (2338) shows 6".

[A "low-water bridge" around here generally means a poured mass of concrete encompassing some number of what we refer to as 'culverts' which may be thought of as "pipes" of most generally, a 20" diameter.

Given the location of the phoned-in 'request for assistance call' my best guess is whoever made the decision to attempt a crossing of (probably in the neighborhood of 3' with a necked-down width of maybe 80') that river was one of maybe some drug-mule type, a "hold my beer" guy, an idiot or, what the medical examiners will reveal were Yankees.

Gee I hope that, what with me revealing so much geographical information 'our guy' hasn't in his Don Quixote way, figured this evening was a propitious time to make our acquaintance.]

Oh shit.

00:07 (CDT)

License plate origination - Indiana.

God forgive me.

Final report on this Watch:

Winds have remained calm however (01:19 CDT) additional rainfall continues with the measured additional amount being 1.7 inches.

My neighbors in low lying areas I hope for the best meanwhile

Turn around don't drown is my fervent wish for anyone encountering a water crossing of any sort.

(New Orleans may have fared better than hoped where Laura's concerned but don't let your guard down, Arkansas' rainfall is coming your way!)

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