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Tuesday, 20 October 2020

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Mark Twain is rumored to have said: if you don't read the news you are uninformed. If you do read the news you are misinformed.

Same goes today.

Never mind what the reality is. Just do as you're told!

I read the online version of the Daily Express. It is quite common for there to be two conflicting headlines for the same story. I read them both for the laughs and them make up my own mind.How the mighty have fallen.

It's the Norway effect ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8525679/amp/Norways-coronavirus-success-leaves-funeral-homes-struggling.html

Their death rate actually fell below normal during the first wave of Covid. The flus and pneumonias that would have all killed a load of people all had a tough time like Covid from hand washing, social distancing, masks, lockdown, etc., plus their health service kept doing all the cancer, heart, stroke, etc. work as well. No surprise the death rate fell, so much so the Norgies had to bailout the funeral directors because not enough people were dying.

Now Blighty is catching up with the correct measures, in spite of massacring 60,000 people in excess deaths due to criminal negligence in taking 8 months to get to the same point. (In fairness the excess death rate went below average during the summer as the blunt instrument of full-on lockdown took effect).

So although the Covid deaths are going up they're more than compensated by the flu and pneumonia deaths going down.

If only Blighty's feckless state could get the test, track and isolate working they could do a "circuit-breaker" lockdown and then lock into zero / low levels of Covid, like China and Southeast Asia where Covid death is zero or trace and any outbreaks are instantly zapped with TTI.

But there's no point in doing a "circuit-breaker" lockdown if TTI isn't working because the virus will just bound back later.

So until TTI is fit for purpose, the 3-tier local / regional lockdown scale is the only way to go. It keeps the overall death rate down, albeit Covid becomes a bigger proportion of the low death rate.

In other words, a 3-tier local lockdown holding pattern until TTI is properly implemented. Then a 3 week circuit breaker lockdown and let TTI take over - a la China and SE Asia. That's the only way forward.

SoD

Mr Duff. Have you tried the Planet Normal podcast?

SoD, you are believing anything at all that oozes from communist China about their virus? That makes no sense.

Both headlines are true.
All cause fatalities are at normal levels as are deaths from respiratory diseases.
The number of people dying from the particular respiratory disease called Covid is at the highest level since June.
So if you are only worried about dying then you've no more to worry about than normal.
If on the other hand you are fusssed about not having the word Covid on you death certificate, then you do.

Whiters, I've got friends and colleagues in my work team living back in China now. They went home in January for Chinese new year and never came back, working from home.

They're out clubbing, munching through bats and dogs in fancy restaurants, water-parks and indoor ski centres with their kids, the full Monty, it's a real choker hearing all that in the conf calls. And every time there's an outbreak somewhere, the app on everyone's phones in the vicinity goes off on one, the Test, Trace and Isolate mob descend like a Mongol hoard from out of nowhere (you do not mess with them, it's fair to say), and two weeks later it's all back to normal.

I trust my friends and colleagues enough to know they've nailed it pretty much. Not saying it might be to do in part with genetics and past exposure to corona-viruses that they're doing so well, and not just the efficiency of their Covid response. But the stats are fairly OK, I think.

SoD

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