Will the EU break-up this year - or next?

Before you dismiss my title as wishful thinking - think about it!  There are hard times - no, seriously hard times! - approaching and the structure is not sound.  There are two main fault lines running through the structure, the north/south one which divides the 'Scandies' and the 'Meds', and the east/west one which divides the impoverished eastern bloc from the more affluent west.

John Keiger, at 'The Speccie' site spells it out:

By June 2020, according to EU statistics, Greece’s national debt to annual GDP ratio stood at 187.4 per cent, Italy 149.4 per cent, Portugal 126.1 per cent, France 114.1 per cent. The battle to mutualise a small part of the debt has again pushed to one side the fundamental structural problem with the EU, the Euro: undervalued for some (Germany and the northern states) and overvalued for others (Italy and the southern states).

Needless to say, the Germans and the Scandies just 'lurve' operating on world markets with a falsely lowered exchange rate.  Not sure what the Italians make of it because no-one asks them!

Thanks to the common-sense of the Brit 'peeps',  we're out of it!

 

 

 

Comments

[Whitewall]

The EU break up. Slowly then suddenly I think. Too many divisions and a mis-valued fiat currency.

[Whyaxye]

Getting out is the best thing that has happened to our country in my lifetime.

[Timbo]

Well David, your wish has finally come true for Lewis Hamilton. Too bad that he’s turned out to be just another whiny little git.

[Timbo]

Sorry, off topic.

[Loz]

The Jerries have got an 8% budget surplus and trillions in reserve. They'll drip feed the PIIGS in the Euro as necessary. The markets know this. The Euro is safe.

The "impoverished East"? Every time I visit they look richer and richer, and that's borne out by the facts ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/26/this-is-the-golden-age-eastern-europes-extraordinary-30-year-revival

That's the Graun, btw! Dissing socialism and blessing Maggie's neoliberal Single Market like a good 'un!

And with the ex-Ost Bloccers life, Liberty and the pursuit of happiness has come empowerment. The will to stand up to Franco-German hegemony.

So Blighty had two natural allied Blocs within the EU to commence "winning the peace" it had so palpably lost after winning WW2, the chance to boot the Frogs and Jerries off their peacetime pedestal.

But Blighty did a runner. At the critical moment of the campaign, Blighty went AWOL. We did a Dunkirk when we should have done a D-Day.

The time honoured strategy of Blighty stirring up trouble for any hegemon in Europe is now in self-inflicted tatters: you've gotta be in it to win it.

The cowardly, stupid politics of Brexit stinks as much as the economics.

SoD

[AussieD]

Has that little wanker Hamilton been knighted?

FMD they'll give it to anyone.

[Loz]

And the stench of that stupid, cowardly decision reaches right across the Atlantic.

Uncle Sam's "global sheriff" badge is under threat, and he's just lost his trusty European deputy.

Now Uncle Sam will have to marshal the Brits and the Euros directly, thereby gaining two extra burdens and losing one that was borne by a friend.

The Don smelt the coffee of Uncle Sam's unreliable Deputies, ditching NATO and Blighty in favour of new deputy badge holders: overtly Israel and Saudi in the ME, with Dirty Erdy as the unbadged covert proxy; a new possie being built in SE Asia from the local players.

But now Teutonic cosying with Vlad and Ping-a-Ling, and Blighty with Ping-a-Ling although unlikely with Vlad, are all on the to do list. No deputy in Europe any more.

And who's sporting Uncle Sam's sheriff's badge for this session? A senile old fart from a bygone era and a socialist sidekick.

Gawd 'elp us.

SoD

[Loz]

Another blue national socialist speaks ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/01/must-now-fulfil-promise-brexit-galvanise-britain-banish-declinism/

The Brexit response is clear: to re-empower the democratic nation state, to rely on the solidarity of the nation, and to trust that the age of democracy has not been replaced by a post-democratic age of bureaucracy – whether authoritarian, as in China, or neoliberal, as in the EU.

So the EU is neoliberal, aka Thatcherite, yet also bureaucratic? You can call it the EUSSR if you want, then call it Thatcherite, a contradiction hiding in plain view to pull in votes from right and left socialist as you will. Doublethink on steroids.

Yet the overwhelming blue national socialist trajectory is there, with all its fascistic narratives: In the state we trust, the Fuhrer state over the people reinvigorated: Trust, obey, fight.

Yeah, tomorrow belongs to you alright ...

https://youtu.be/SDuHXTG3uyY

SoD

[Lord T]

The EU will last a bit yet as it takes so long to get out but without our funds propping it up I see a couple more leveraging extra funds by threatening to leave the EU. A couple will and then it will reduce to a few countries as a much reduced force.

And we didn't have any influence in the EU nor were we a deputy. We were the handy yes men to give legitimacy as our influence was a mirage because the EU masters had bought our politicians. We have more influence now as we can choose our own allies. When all this woke crap is finished we should rebuild the 5 eyes as a trading block.

[Whitewall]

"When all this woke crap is finished we should rebuild the 5 eyes as a trading block."
'Crap' is right.

[Bob]

Oddly enough, on the continent there's a view that Brexit has furthered stability:

"PARIS (Reuters) - European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Tuesday the trade deal struck with Britain was a relief and provided stability for people and companies.

“We’ve delivered an orderly Brexit,” Barnier told Franceinfo radio. The last-gasp deal clinched a week before the year-end deadline brought “a little stability,” he added."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-barnier-idUSKBN2930KF

Maybe they're just whistling past the graveyard.

[Mark]

"The cowardly, stupid politics of Brexit stinks as much as the economics."

The EU is heading rapidly down the shitter of history where it belongs. If you want to blame us in advance for its demise, well I, for one, will wear that badge with pride

[Loz]

As the Brexit Curtain comes down, a deluge of Brit firms move to Europe ...

https://www.voanews.com/europe/british-firms-mull-relocating-other-side-brexit-curtain

And that's the manufacturing sector in the trade deal, imagine what the services sector that got No Deal is going to do.

Any shortfall in EU productive capacity and employment opportunities that might endanger Europe seems likely to be made good by Blighty's biggest export - its own industries!

How very generous of us.

SoD

[Pat]

Small point of detail- the Scandinavians each have their own currency.

[Glesga]

Loz, the scaremongering is over.

[Loz]

And so it begins ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/a434b756-afe0-454d-9d70-ef2d42ea8d55

London’s financial sector started to feel the full effects of Brexit on the first trading day of 2021 as nearly €6bn of EU share dealing shifted away from the City to facilities in European capitals.

“It’s been an extraordinary day. Shifting liquidity is one of the hardest things to do. It’s not ‘Big Bang’ — it’s ‘Bang and It’s Gone’. The City has lost its European share business,” said Alasdair Haynes, chief executive of Aquis Exchange.

Although not the City’s most lucrative business, the departure of the share trading will mean less in tax receipts for the UK government. Mr Haynes also noted that it could encourage companies to list in the EU to benefit from smoother, more active trading conditions.

SoD

[Loz]

1 trillion quid's worth of assets transferred from London to the EU since 2016 ...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cityam.com/brexit-uk-to-start-talks-on-quick-eu-equivalence-deal-for-financial-services/amp/

Nothing to see here. Move along.

SoD

[JK]

https://borepatch.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-european-unions-winners-and-losers.html

Cruising around - as has become my Wednesday habit - blogs that I've bookmarked Loz I came across that figuring you might find it *interesting.