It's OK, I won't say I told you so - part VI: The second Renaissance and Enlightenment of Europe

By George and all the Saints, the Jerries are in the shit and the PIIGS are sitting pretty in the straw!  Who'da thunk it? ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/06/germany-will-lose-grip-eu-economy-gets-much-weaker/

The interesting point, however, is this. It [Germany] is starting to underperform the Mediterranean economies. Italy, helped by prime minister Mario Draghi’s reforms, and a ton of stimulus money, is doing a lot better.

In the latest quarter, Italy’s GDP rose by 2.6pc, almost 50pc faster than Germany (and inflation at 2.6pc is a lot lower as well – no sign of stagflation there).

France is doing better than expected, with resilient GDP growth, stronger than forecast job creation, and rising exports, and while retail sales are sluggish (down 0.2pc last month) it is doing a lot better than in Germany. Likewise, Spain is bouncing back from the pandemic, with factory output rising.

Heck, even Greece is doing a lot better, with growth of more than 7pc forecast for this year. The net result? The imbalances within the eurozone are just as strong as they always have been. It is just that they have switched places.

It is Germany that is emerging as the weakest link, and the Mediterranean states are doing better. And that will reshape the bloc in two important ways.

First, power will shift from Berlin to Paris and Rome. With the departure of Angela Merkel, and her replacement by the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz running an unlikely coalition of socialists, greens and free market radicals – a combustible mix if ever there was one – that was always likely to happen.

Next, Germany won’t be able to preach austerity anymore, nor will lectures on spendthrift Mediterraneans hold much sway. It is easy to tell everyone else what they are doing wrong when you run the strongest economy. It is a lot harder when you are one of the weakest.

I've often wondered why the EU's economic core was in the middle North and not at the periphery.  All other things being equal the shortest distance to other markets for sales and purchases is where you'd expect capital and labour to coalesce, like the US.

But all other things weren't equal.  The central North was well run and the periphery a shambles.  But in the Single Market, Four Freedoms, and State Aid Rules that gravity defying start point can't last.  Especially when the grip of a single currency with austerity and internal devaluation as the obligatory and only means of righting national ships  imposes itself on the feckless periphery for a few decades to bring them into line with Teutonic righteousness.

Are we about to see the inversion of europe: the shift of power and control away from the central Northern core to the city states of the periphery?  What a glorious, fantastic place that would be, a neo-Greek phoenix rising from the ashes of Teutonic dominance.

And if we'd still been in the Great Game of europe in its current incarnation of the EU, as the ultimate peripheral nation and super-City State with all the finance of the City of London behind us we'd be top dog of the city states: the Athens of the second renaissance, the Venice of the second age of Enlightenment.

Instead ... Good call 23/06/2016.

Muppets.

SoD

Comments

[Mark]

"Good call 23/06/2016"

Yes, we know!!

[Margaret Ball]

Then again, the German response to an economy going bad is, historically, to march through Belgium.

[Timbotoo]

Spain is a magical place and the economy is being run by a cabal of witches. We have one of the lowest productivity rates of the EU as the government is adding civil service jobs by the thousand. Now the proposal is to work until 75 years old, which obviously exacerbates the unemployment rate of people trying to enter the job market.

Oh, and I agree with you and Mark.

[Whitewall]

"We have one of the lowest productivity rates of the EU as the government is adding civil service jobs by the thousand."

Isn't that what Greece did some years ago before the financial crisis?

[Mark]

@Timbotoo

I wasn't agreeing with him (go back and look at my earlier posts), I was being sarcastic!

[Loz]

Timbotoo,

One of my little one liners: "Anyone who takes a job, makes a job".

Nobody ever steals a job. The earnings of someone is either spent or saved or a combo of the two. The supermarket assistants, the waitresses, the gas, electricity and telco employees, et al, a slice of all those hirings comes from the spending of the job taker on the fruits of those other workers labour if the taker spends his earnings.

And if he saves it, it goes via the banking system into a factory, office, or other labour bearing assets and makes a job too.

If you work you can't help but create another job at least equal to the value of your own salary. Otherwise where do the jobs come from that soak up a growing workforce when, say, the birthrate increases and adds more people to the workforce, or immigrants arrive and increase the workforce?

In capitalism and the free market it's actually more than your salary that gets created by the job you spawn with the spending and saving of your earnings. The value of your surplus made by the capitalist is also spent or invested, and that makes an extra bit more of another job.

So if the capitalist makes 20% off you, then your job creates another job of the same salary plus 0.2 of another job.

If there's no-one to take the newly created job and a bit, then salaries rise and overtime is offered. This is BoJo's contention in his high wage economy fantasy, fantasy because all other things being equal the gain simply goes on inflation leaving living standards exactly where they were.

The only way to increase living standards is through productivity. And the only way to increase productivity is through leaving it to competitive capitalism and the market, the neural network system that re-wires itself second by second to improve productivity.

However, a state job that makes a loss, like the bureaucrats you describe, is a double-whammy of failure.

Firstly, it might create no further job at all if the value of the job is 0%, or less than a full job if the value is less than 100%, which state operations always cause to happen. No state operation has ever made a profit when pitted against a competitive market. Most don't even break even when given a monopoly to run!

Secondly, productivity falls when the state operates the means of production and distribution, as observed by me many of oft times: the state has no incentive to increase output over input because there is no competition. Without fear of going bust and greed of profit it's feet up cuppa tea and days on the golf course.

As a result, there are no Richard Brandon's, Alan Sugars, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffets operating the state's means of production and distribution. Far from it, the failures of the independent sector end up in the management roles of the state, like Dido Harding, where monopoly kills off whatever minute operational competence they might have had.

So yes, Spain will linger in the do-do if the tax, borrow and print going on civil servants out-weighs the resurgence of capitalism at the more optimal periphery.

You need to awake your inner Teuton! And only then will you stand equal to the outer Teuton.

SoD

[FrankH]

"Good call 23/06/2016.

"Muppets."

We left. Get over it.

There are lots of successful, independent countries in the world, the UK used to be one of them. It is again, you should rejoice.

[Bob]

Competitive capitalism! Is that a tacit admission that all forms of capitalism, for example corporatism, also compete with one another? The next step is to realize that super rich entities can fk things up just as capably as any left wing scheme. For example, hedge funds are buying up property and making housing in the US unaffordable in some areas. Bill Gates is buying up farm land, and who knows where that could lead.

[Timbotoo]

A comment in which I agree with FrankH!

[Loz]

"There are lots of successful, independent countries in the world, the UK used to be one of them."

And when exactly was that, FrankH?

I do note your use of the past tense though, which at least shows some deference to the truth of Blighty's current situation after 6 years of Brexit independence.

SoD

[Loz]

Bob, you know my opinions on monopolies, cartels, closed shops and other stitch-ups: it's a valid role for the state to break them up and float them back into the market to compete again afresh, but NOT a valid role for the state to take them into ownership and institutionalise the monopoly, cartel, closed shop or other stitch-up.

It's quite simples really. But as one of the Vons said: "Everything in war is simple, but the simple things are very difficult" - especially for you.

SoD

[FrankH]

"And when exactly was that, FrankH?"

Definitely up to World War One, probably up to World War 2, arguably up to Maastricht and Lisbon it was independent.

We are now independent again and free to become successful again. Not that I trust the bunch of clowns running the government to help us do that but at least it's possible now.

[Bob]

Though simple, I can recognize a shift in rhetoric. The history of this blog, including your posts, has been to present economics as a left versus right issue, which has always been a vast oversimplification.

[Loz]

Bob, I can't actually believe you just said that.

How many times have I posited the concept of an up down axis of Libertarian Authoritarian respectively that runs perpendicular to the left right axis and linked to and expounded the virtues of the Nolan chart in my posts and comments?

C'mon man, we have to get somewhere with all this.

SoD

[Loz]

FrankH,

Since WW2 we were most successful in the decades of Thatcher and Cameron. Observations ...

1. They were both Thatcherites.
2. We were in the EU under both.
3. Both were pro-EU membership.
4. Both recovered Blighty from the "independent actions" of other Westminster pols who crashed Blighty into the ground.

The credit these two deserve for rescuing our country from its own "independent actions" and recognising the confederate oversight provided by Brussels that limited the perennial failure of Westminster's "independent actions" is beyond measure.

And yet they are demonised and Blighty no longer has the external oversight to constrain Westminster's incessant failures, failures that you acknowledge "Not that I trust the bunch of clowns running the government to help us do that".

Therefore, there will be no future success for Blighty.

The greatest mistake that people can make is to conflate Freedom with Nationalism. Freedom is about the individual, not the nation state. All the oppressions and atrocities in the world were, are and will be caused by the nation state. No other power gains assent without the will of the nation state. The EU has no power without the assent of the member nation states, neither does the UN or any other extra-state power.

Mankind's struggle has been, is, and always will be (until a vaccine is found to deactivate the pol gene) the endeavour to find constructs to limit the power of the state over the individual, like these great efforts for example ...

Common Law
Magna Carta
Trial by jury
Habeas Corpus
Rights
Separation of powers
Rule of law
Freedom of speech
Liberty
Constitution based on Liberty
Democracy
Confederation

Confederation is the most under-rated on that list, and not even on the list in some people's minds.

No-one who understands freedom would want to live anywhere that didn't have all of the items on that list centre stage in their society.

That's why Brexiteers don't understand the meaning of the word freedom. For them, freedom is to switch the tyranny from someone remote to someone local, and you actually said it ...

"We are now independent again and free to become successful again. Not that I trust the bunch of clowns running the government to help us do that but at least it's possible now."

You knew. Blue, red, yellow, and green socialism, wokery, climate alarmism, and Covid tyranny, all laced with corruption, were Westminster's inevitable executive behaviours, and yet you did it anyway. You gave them carte blanche and you shackled them from an external oversight and governance.

You might as well have said ...

"We are now independent again and free to become a failure again. And I trust the bunch of clowns running the government to help us do that and it's definitely possible now."

SoD

[Loz]

Unshackled them

SoD

[Mark]

@SoD

Thanks for this wonderous rationalisation. Now please explain how we know the earth is banana shaped.

[FrankH]

"Since WW2 we were most successful in the decades of Thatcher and Cameron. Observations ...

"1. They were both Thatcherites.
"2. We were in the EU under both..."

Maggie was ousted in 1990, the EU came into being with the Maastricht Treaty in 1992.

We joined the Common Market. I think most of the people who wanted to leave the EU would have been happy to remain in the Common Market, but that wasn't an option.

Anyway, as I said before, we left, get over it.

[Bob]

SoD,

Your list of villains, wokery, climate alarmism, and Covid tyranny, are the list of a right winger. Wokery is a vague concept that has no strong effect on society but is a right wing chimera used to create a false sense of threat. There is such a thing as climate alarmism, but the concept is used by fossil fuel apologists to divert attention from the fact there really is a climate crisis caused by the low-tech, unhealthy habit of burning stuff for energy. Turning public health measures into "covid tyranny" is just another means of motivating political action through paranoia.

"Socialism" is a term you've often misused by equating all forms of socialism, which is another gross oversimplification. You don't live on any axis that's above it all, as you would like to believe.

[Loz]

FrankH,

The Common Market was the EU's forerunner, so a bit pedantic if I may say so. Change it to "CM/EEC/EC/EU" or whichever you prefer.

Maggie and her people created and deployed the Single Market, Four Freedoms and State Aid Rules which extended the Common Market to a Single Market.

Being in Maggie's Single Market and outside of the Customs Union and politics was always an option, the Norgie option, and the very option that Brexiteers called BRINO (Brexit in name only). If remaining in the Single Market was so off the radar it didn't even register as a Brexit option, then "most of the people who voted to leave the EU would have been happy to remain in the Common Market" is not likely to be true.

SoD

[Loz]

"Your list of villains, wokery, climate alarmism, and Covid tyranny, are the list of a right winger."

Notice you missed off the fourth rider of the apocalypse: Blue Socialism (which includes Brexit), the right wing one.

SoD

[Bob]

Do you think blue socialism is the same thing as national socialism? After all, Brexit was caused by nationalism. And I don't think you read my comment.

[FrankH]

@SOD

"The Common Market was the EU's forerunner, so a bit pedantic if I may say so."

You may say so, and I may disagree. It wasn't pedantic, it was the main point. The difference between the Common Market and the EU is real, not just a different form of words. I can't speak for all the people who voted Leave but, as I said, I think a lot of us would have voted to stay in the Common Market. It's the EU we don't like.

[David Norman]

Typically of SoD he picks up on the wrong part of FrankH’s comment. It’s unimportant when the UK ceased to be successful. The important point Frank makes is that there are successful countries outside the sclerotic oligarchy called the EU. This will be of no surprise to anyone except possibly SoD.

[JK]

https://turcopolier.com/russian-federation-sitrep-11-november-2021-by-patrick-armstrong/

Just to keep y'all aware I ain't dead yet!

(I think she's working on it though.)

[JK]

https://babylonbee.com/news/kenosha-residents-paint-their-doorposts-with-black-lives-matter-in-preparation-for-verdict

Might have to be residing in the US to understand that ...

[Glesga]

Disagree Bob. Brexit was caused by corruption and lack of accountability. The EU is about profit for the minority. Thought you as a socialist would have noted this.

[Bob]

JK,

Glad your horse de-wormer is keeping you going.

Glesga,

Then what were those UKIP types on about? That aside, I agree that globalism in general has been captured by corporations and the super rich. What exactly do you mean by socialist? You're not going to stoop to calling me a Nazi too, are you?

[JK]

Don't forget Bob I'm daily eating horse food and drinking horse electrolytes too. Every little bit helps is my opinion.

[Bob]

JK,

Dude, you are a stud.

[Glesga]

Bob, would never call you a Nazi.

[Bob]

Glesga, thanks. You and JK, along with David and occasionally SoD, have been good company.

[JK]

Well Bob I will admit that driving by horsefarms nowadays I do get abit "horsey." Her Ladyship however, for whatever reason, now tells me she wishes I'da stated taking the pony paste years ago.

Oh. And on that other topic ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSypu3hOzNo

Just another day in the good ol' US of A.

[JK]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/18/politics/steele-dossier-reckoning/index.html

Oh and Bob?

You been keeping up with the news much?

Reckon there's gonna be any of them there P[ee-uu]ulitzer Prizes gonna be "return[ed] to sender[s]"?

[JK]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b6-oE55vdM

Icing on the cake!

[JK]

https://turcopolier.com/russian-federation-sitrep-25-november-2021-by-patrick-armstrong/

And as I'm keen you're into wargaming, that one is especially for you Loz!

(I will stipulate "our" pols are as stupid as "your" pols.)

[Bob]

JK,

Video showed that Rittenhouse was physically attacked and acted in self defense. You probably shouldn't be too excited about the trial outcome, though. A lot of people are not happy about a teenager travelling to a protest in another state with a semiauto to behave like a vigilante.

The Steele dossier was never presented as anything other than raw intelligence. You might have noticed that nearly all "news" is presented as the equivalent of clickbait now. Cable is some of the worst. I don't watch any of it anymore. Hope y'all had a good holiday.

[JK]

Bob,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=do7sbWaZstQ

He traveled across state lines! Yup, sorta kinda I reckon. Google maps gives a driving time from the Kenosha car lot to the Antioch [Illinois] PD of seventeen 17! whole minutes.

And, with the exception of his Mom, the rest of his entire family reside in Kenosha. Turns out as a matter of fact Bob, a large portion of Antioch's residents are employed in Kenosha.

But but ... "he travelled [to] another state with a semiauto!"

If you'd watched the trial Bob you'd know that's horseshit.

Yeah Bob for the most part it was pretty good - as my back was out I was unable to be where I'd preferred but we made of it as best we might've at home. I hope you and yours also enjoyed a good one.

[JK]

Sorry sorry Bob. Took me awhile to find the criminal complaint.

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.vaed.515692/gov.uscourts.vaed.515692.1.0_1.pdf

"The Steele dossier was never presented as anything other than raw intelligence."

"Presented as" as it turns out these many years later turns out to be another one of those instances where some belief, albeit however widely believed, also turns out to be horseshit.

Steele himself never "compiled" a damn thing. The dossier (if you wish to stick to calling it that) turns out to be - if the allegations in the complaint prove out - just another in a long line, of political party hit pieces.

Steele (for a tidy fee I imagine) simply lent his name to be attached to give the product "a gloss of authenticity" - sure fooled John McCain though and through his "good offices" a whole bunch more people too.

Kinda takes the shine off'n more'n a few Pulitzer Prizes seems to me!

[Whitewall]

SoD, if you come back on, you mentioned Greece above:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/11/how-greece-got-back-on-course.php

[Bob]

JK,

My mistake. Evidently the gun was stored in Kenosha and Rittenhouse picked it up when he got there.

It's called the "Steele Dossier" because Steele is co-founder of the agency that collected the info, Fusion GPS, and he was apparently in charge of the project. I don't remember anyone claiming he personally collected anything, and it was clearly oppo research to anyone paying attention. One of the actual researchers, Igor Danchenko, has been charged with lying to the FBI about some of the claims in the dossier, probably because the FBI is embarrassed about ever having taken it seriously. This kind of thing is standard political practice.

[Terrapod]

SoD - just checking, how is D of SoD doing? Miss his rambles on England and Politics though you are doing a bang up job.

[Doonhamer]

A Good New Year to FoSoD and to SoD and to all their families.
With much love and appreciation for so many years of information, opinion, humour and entertainment
Thank you, and God's Blessing on you all.
Doonhamer.

[AussieD]

G'day SoD

Give my regards to Duffers please